我国持续性重大天气异常成因与预报方法研究回顾与未来展望

持续性天气异常具有非常强的致灾能力,对人民的生命财产安全以及社会经济的健康发展构成了严重的威胁。然而,现阶段其形成机理尚不清晰,对其预报方法的研究也不足。在回顾国内外持续性重大天气异常相关研究的基础上,提出了针对持续性重大天气异常如何开展预报时效为1～2周的预报研究的重大科学问题,并围绕这个问题,提出可以将大气慢变过程、多尺度相互作用、复杂下垫面强迫和海陆气相互作用几方面作为相应的切入点并最终建立起动力预报与物理统计预报相结合的预报理论和方法的研究思路。以期通过开展相关研究,弥补对持续性重大天气异常系统性研究的空白,进一步延长这类高影响天气事件的预报时效,提高对其预报的准确率。

关键词: 1-2周预报, 持续性重大天气异常, 持续性暴雨, 低温雨雪冰冻灾害

Persistent extreme weather is of high disastercausing capability, represents a great threat to the safety of both people and property and results in substantial economic losses. However, the underlying mechanism of such highimpact weather remains unclear, and related forecasting methods are quite understudied currently. Based on the comprehensive reviews of the relevant studies about persistent extreme weather, the prediction of such events within the period during 1～2 weeks in advance is believed to be a significant scientific issue. For this scientific problem, the studies of atmospheric lowfrequency process, the interaction between multiscale systems, the forcing of complicated underlying surface and sealandatmosphere interactions are necessary to be performed. These multiperspective studies will favor the final establishment of the corresponding forecasting theory and method based on the combination of dynamical prediction and statistical predication. It is hoped that the deficiencies in systematic studies about persistent extreme weather may be made up through pertinent studies, which will prolong the time length of forecasting and increase the prediction precision of such highimpact events.

Key words: Prediction of 1～2 weeks in advance., Persistent low temperature and freezing, Persistent extreme weather events, Persistent extreme precipitation

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Mechanism and forecasting method of persistent extreme weather events: review and prospect