世界主要国家碳排放强度历史变化趋势及相关关系研究

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2011.08.0859

地球科学进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (8): 859 -869. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2011.08.0859

张志强，曾静静*，曲建升

中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心/中国科学院国家科学图书馆兰州分馆，甘肃兰州730000

收稿日期:2011-07-04 修回日期:2011-07-28 出版日期:2011-08-10
通讯作者: 曾静静(1981-)，女，重庆人，助理研究员，主要从事全球环境变化战略情报研究. E-mail:zengjj@llas.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目“中国参与国际CO₂减排国家方案设计”（编号：KZCX2-YW-Q1-10）；中国科学院战略性先导科技专项“应对气候变化的碳收支认证及相关问题”（编号：XDA05140100）资助.

An Analysis of the Trends of Carbon Emission Intensity and Its Relationship with Economic Development for Major Countries

Zhang Zhiqiang，Zeng Jingjing，Qu Jiansheng

Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment /Lanzhou Branch of National Science Library，Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou730000，China

Received:2011-07-04 Revised:2011-07-28 Online:2011-08-10 Published:2011-08-10

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减少人类活动的温室气体特别是CO₂排放量是国际社会已普遍达成共识的应对气候变暖的根本性途径。研究各国经济活动的碳排放强度的变化历史，可以为预测各国未来的碳排放强度趋势、制定未来的碳排放强度降低目标提供科学依据。利用美国橡树岭国家实验室CO₂信息分析中心（CDIAC）的CO₂排放数据、《世界人口、国内生产总值和人均国内生产总值统计：公元1—2008年》的GDP数据和世界银行第二产业附加值占GDP比重等相关数据，对美国、英国、法国、德国、日本、意大利、加拿大等7个主要工业化发达国家，以及中国、印度、巴西、墨西哥和南非等5个新兴经济体国家的碳排放强度（单位GDP的CO₂排放量）变化趋势、人均GDP变化趋势、人均GDP与单位GDP碳排放强度关系、产业结构与单位GDP碳排放强度关系进行了比较分析。结果表明:主要工业化发达国家的碳排放强度随时间变化呈现出先增加后逐渐减小并逐步趋同的态势，主要新兴经济体国家的碳排放强度随时间呈波动性变化；世界主要国家人均GDP总体随时间呈上升趋势，但主要工业化发达国家与新兴经济体国家之间人均GDP差距却逐渐加大；美国、英国、法国、德国和加拿大等少数工业化发达国家人均GDP与单位GDP碳排放强度之间呈倒U型关系，中国人均GDP与单位GDP碳排放强度之间呈N型关系，南非人均GDP与单位GDP碳排放强度之间呈倒N型关系，日本、意大利、印度、巴西和墨西哥人均GDP与单位GDP碳排放强度之间呈倒L型关系；主要工业化发达国家（除加拿大外）第二产业附加值占GDP比重与单位GDP碳排放强度存在正相关关系，而主要新兴经济体国家第二产业附加值占GDP比重与单位GDP碳排放强度之间不存在显著的相关性。

关键词: 碳排放强度, 人均GDP, 工业化发达国家, 新兴经济体国家, 产业结构

Reducing the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is the fundamental way to address climate change, which has been widely accepted by international community. Studying the trends of carbon emission intensity for each country’s economic activity could provide a scientific basis for predicting each country’s future tendency as well as formulating the reduction targets for carbon emission intensity. Based on the carbon dioxide emission data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory CO₂Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)，GDP data from Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP，1-2008 AD，and the secondary industry value add share of GDP data from World Bank，we selected the seven industrialized countries （USA，UK，France，Germany，Japan，Italy，Canada）as well as the five emerging economies（China，India，Brazil，Mexico，South Africa）as the analysis objects to compare the trends of carbon emission intensity and GDP per capita，and assess the relationships of carbon emission intensity with economy development and industrial structure. The results show that carbon emission intensities of major industrialized countries increased firstly and then decreased gradually over time，and showing a trend of convergence. On the other hand，carbon emission intensities of major emerging economies were fluctuated with time. The overall trend of world major countries′GDP went upward over time，but the gap between industrialized countries and emerging economies has deepened gradually. Only a few industrialized countries such as USA，UK，France，Germany and Canada showed an inverted Ucurve for the relationship between carbon emission intensity and GDP per capita.China showed an N-curve. South Africa showed an inverted N-curve.Japan，Italy，India，Brazil and Mexico showed an inverted L-curve. The industrialize countries′ (except Canada) secondary industry value add share of GDP and carbon emission intensity were positively correlated，while the emerging economies showed no correlation.

Key words: Carbon emission intensity, GDP per capita, Industrialized developed , countries, Emerging , developing , countries, Industrial structure.

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