过去千年中国年代和百年尺度冷暖阶段的干湿格局变化研究

郝志新, 吴茂炜, 张学珍, 刘洋, 郑景云

An Overview on Changes of Dry/Wet Pattern in China in Decadal to Centennial Warm and Cold Periods During the Past Millennium

Zhixin Hao, Maowei Wu, Xuezhen Zhang, Yang Liu, Jingyun Zheng

图1 中世纪气候异常期（a）和小冰期（b, c）的干湿格局[21,22] （a）、（b）中每个点代表一条干湿/降水代用指标序列，每条序列若在统计时段内超过2/3的年份数大于（小于）中值则记为“干（湿）”，超过1/2但小于2/3的年份数大于（小于）中值则记为“偏干（偏湿）”；（c）9个PMIP3模式（BCC-CSM1-1、 CCSM4、 CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2、 FGOALS-s2、 GISS-E2-R-p121、 HadCM3、 IPSL-CM5A-LR、 MPI-ESM-P、 MRI-CGCM3）模拟的LIA期间平均夏季降水距平（以850—1850年的平均状态为基准）的中值分布格局

Fig.1 Dry/wet patterns during the MCA (a) and LIA (b, c)[21,22] Each dot in (a) and (b) represents a proxy series for dry-wet/precipitation. A dot is classified as dry (or wet) if the index is greater (or less) than its median in more than 2/3 of the time in a given period, and classified as moderately dry (or moderately wet) if the index is greater (or less) than its median in more than 1/2 but less than 2/3 of the time in a given period; (c) The summer precipitation anomalies during the LIA relative to 850-1850 derived from the median of the nine PMIP3 models (BCC-CSM1-1, CCSM4, CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2, FGOALS-s2, GISS-E2-R-p121, HadCM3, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MPI-ESM-P, MRI-CGCM3)