近25年唐古拉山西段冰川变化遥感监测

引用本文

王聪强, 杨太保, 许艾文, 冀琴, MihretabG.Ghebrezgabher. 近25年唐古拉山西段冰川变化遥感监测[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(1): 101-109.
Wang Congqiang, Yang Taibao, Xu Aiwen, Ji Qin, Mihretab G. Ghebrezgabher. .Remote Sensing Monitoring of Glacier Changes in the Western Region of Tanggula Mountains in Recent 25 Years[J]. Advanced Earth Science, 2017, 32(1): 101-109. 复制到剪切板

Doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.01.0101
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近25年唐古拉山西段冰川变化遥感监测

王聪强, 杨太保^*, 许艾文, 冀琴, MihretabG.Ghebrezgabher

兰州大学资源环境学院, 甘肃兰州 730000

*通信作者:杨太保(1962-),男,山西运城人,教授,主要从事自然地理环境变化的研究.E-mail:yangtb@lzu.edu.cn

作者简介:王聪强(1989-),男,河南平顶山人,硕士研究生,主要研究环境演变与全球变化.E-mail:15101229024@163.com

基金资助:*国家自然科学基金项目“黄河上游晚更新世河流阶地和冰川演化对千年尺度气候变化的响应”(编号:41271024); 兰州大学地理学基地科研训练及科研能力提高项目(编号:J1210065)资助.

摘要

基于1990—2015年Landsat影像数据,利用比值阈值和NIR水体识别相结合的新方法提取并研究了近25年来唐古拉山西段冰川变化情况和规律,并采用克里金插值构建研究区气候分布及变化特征,揭示冰川变化与气候变化的关系。研究得出:唐古拉山西段冰川总体退缩比较严重,近25年来冰川面积退缩约202.84 km²,占1990年面积的11.98%;冰川退缩主要集中在海拔5 800 m以下;研究区东南部冰川退缩最严重,中部格拉丹冬地区冰川退缩较少;空间插值表明研究区东南部相对较湿热而西北部干冷,西北—东南方向温度分布呈现由低到高的变化趋势,降水量先减少后增加总体变化幅度不大,但研究区气温普遍上升,插值变化显示增温区从研究区中心向周围辐射,最大增温区几乎已经覆盖整个冰川区域;唐古拉山西段冰川的加速退缩主要是由升温造成的。

关键词: 冰川退缩; 唐古拉山西段; NIR水体识别法; 克里金插值; 气候变化

中图分类号:P343.6 文献标志码:A 文章编号:1001-8166(2017)01-0101-09

Remote Sensing Monitoring of Glacier Changes in the Western Region of Tanggula Mountains in Recent 25 Years

Wang Congqiang, Yang Taibao^*, Xu Aiwen, Ji Qin, Mihretab G. Ghebrezgabher

College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

First author:Wang Congqiang(1989-), male, Pingdingshan City,He’nan Province, Master student. Research areas include global and environmental change. E-mail:15101229024@163.com

*Corresponding author:Yang Taibao(1962-), male, Yuncheng City, Shanxi Province, Professor. Research areas include physical geography and environmental change. E-mail:yangtb@lzu.edu.cn

Fund:Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Yellow River Late Pleistocene river terraces and glacial evolution on millennial-scale climate change”(No.41271024); the Scientific Research Training and Scientific Research Ability Improvement Project of Geography Base of Lanzhou University (No.J1210065).

Abstract

This paper focuses on revealing the status quo and variation of glaciers in the western region of Tanggula Mountains. The ratio threshold, NIR water identification and visual interpretation were used to extract the boundary of glaciers based on Landsat data (TM/ETM+/OLI) from 1990 to 2015. In particular, the NIR water identification is a new method to extract glaciers from water, which is suitable to improve the traditional method of ratio threshold. This study used spatial interpolation method to evaluate temperature and precipitation changes. The kriging interpolation method was adapted to manipulate and to extract the appropriate data based on ten weather stations. Comparing to the variations and characteristics of glaciers and climate change from 1990 to 2015, we concluded that glacial retreat in the western region of Tanggula Mountains was serious. The glacier area reduced from 1 693.65 km² to 1 490.81 km², respectively, in 1990 and 2015, in general, approximately 202.84 km² (11.98%) of glacier area has been retreated in the last 25 years. Moreover, the rate of glacier decline after 2000 was much faster than the last decade of the 20th century. In addition, the decreased area of glaciers in the lower altitude basins below 5 000 meters occupied 94.84% of the total change area while the glacier above 5 000 meters almost had no change. The kriging interpolation of the meteorological data indicated that the southeast of the study area was damp and hot while the northwest was cold and dry. The characteristic of temperature distribution from the northwest to the southeast presented from low to high, and precipitation increased in the first of the study period and then decreased but both of them were not very significant. In short, the temperature of study area was increased more prominently since 2000, while the precipitation change was very weak. The mean annual temperature and precipitation of 1980-1989a, 1990-1999a, and 2000-2013a were -3.53 ℃, -3.20 ℃, -2.22 ℃, and 384.49 mm, 354.27 mm, 428.13 mm, respectively. The study found that the glacier change was consistent with temperature variation in spite of the adverse effects of increased precipitation. Therefore, the research concluded that the precipitation change was not more significant comparing to temperature change. In other words, the main reason of the rapid decrease of glaciers in study area was likely due to the rise of temperature.

Keyword: Glacier retreat; The western region of Tanggula Mountains; NIR water identification; Kriging interpolation; Climate change.

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1 引言

冰川是陆地上重要的淡水资源, 对生态环境、经济建设以及区域可持续发展都有重要作用^[1], 但是随着气候变化尤其是近几十年来全球升温的影响^[2], 世界上大多数冰川都出现一些重要的变化。近30多年来中国西北等地区以及“ 世界屋脊” — — 青藏高原的大多数冰川退缩现象也越来越严重^[3~5], 引起了国内外学者的广泛关注和研究, 取得了一些比较重要的进展和成果。但是这些研究主要集中在天山、祁连山、昆仑山、横断山脉等地区^[6], 还有许多区域缺乏深入广泛的监测和研究。如对唐古拉山冰川的研究就比较少, 已有的研究主要集中在长江源格拉丹冬、冬克玛底、布加岗日等局部地区, 且这些研究方法比较简单, 误差分析多采用经验公式。本文通过实验探索使用比值阈值法、水体识别和目视解译相结合的方法, 监测研究从乌兰乌拉湖西部到西藏自治区聂荣县北部的唐古拉山西段冰川现状及变化情况, 并采用完全目视解译法选择样区对本文冰川提取误差进行评估。由于唐古拉山区域气象站比较少, 几乎没有分布在冰川区的气象站, 大多数研究采用周围个别气象站数据代替, 不能较好地反映该区域气候空间分布特征和变化规律, 也不利于探究冰川变化与气候变化的关系。本文采用研究区周围大范围内气象站数据, 通过空间变化插值揭示研究区的气候变化特征, 探究气候变化与冰川变化的关系。

本文研究的唐古拉山西段(89° 30'~93° 35'E, 32° 15'~35° 00'N)位于中国西藏自治区东北部与青海省边境处, 是山岳冰川的集中发育区, 据统计(基于第一次冰川编目)唐古拉山约79%的冰川分布在西段区域。研究区山脉呈现西北— 东南走势, 长度约450 km, 最高峰格拉丹冬海拔达到6 621 m^[7], 冰川多分布在5 000 m以上的高海拔地区。研究区属高原季风气候区, 四季温差小干湿季分明^{[8, 9]}。同时又受东亚季风、印度季风的影响, 雨季降水主要来自南边界的西南气流、西边界的偏西气流及北边界的西北气流^[10], 研究区南部湿热北部干冷, 根据安多和沱沱河气象站记录该区域年平均气温在-7.3~-1.0 ℃, 年降水量为162.7~627.9 mm(近30年多年观测数据)。据第一次冰川编目^[11], 该区域有现代冰川894条, 总面积达到1 939.73 km²(根据第二次冰川编目^[12], 研究区有964条冰川, 冰川面积为1 557.20 km²), 其中有长江正源格拉丹冬冰川区、典型大陆性冰川冬克玛底冰川等, 冰川融水是长江、怒江的重要补给来源。

2 数据与方法

2.1 数据来源

研究采用的遥感数据来自美国地质调查局(USGS)(http://glovis.usgs.gov/), 主要有Landsat TM/ ETM+/OLI数据(表1), 该数据已经经过系统辐射校正和地面控制点校正, 满足冰川研究要求^[13]。DEM数据采用ASTER GDEM分辨率30 m, 来源于中国科学院计算机网络信息中心国际科学数据服务平台(http://datamirror.csdb.cn/)。气象数据来源于中国气象科学数据共享服务网(http://cdc.cma.gov.cn/)。

表1 影像数据 Table 1 The Landsat scenes utilized for the study

2.2 冰川解译方法

前人研究表明, 比值阈值法是一种比较常用的有效的冰川提取方法^[14], 该方法利用冰川在红光波段R(Landsat TM/ETM+对应的是band3, OLI对应的是band4)具有较高的光谱辐射值而在短波红外波段SWIR(Landsat TM/ETM+对应的是band5, OLI对应的是band6)具有较低的辐射值, 对红光波段和短波红外波段进行波段比值运算R/SWIR, 得到比值影像。设定阈值S₁进行决策树分类, 小于阈值S₁的为非冰川区域进行舍弃; 大于阈值S₁的区域为冰川范围, 进行处理转化得到冰川提取的初始边界。

但是上述方法(比值阈值法)常常会把湖泊、河流、沼泽区等水体误判为冰川(图1第一行), 对冰川解译造成比较大的影响。Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI数据的近红外波段(即NIR波段)波长范围均为0.775~0.900 μ m, 该波段常用于分辨水体、潮湿地物等, 本文研究发现NIR波段中液态水体具有比较低的光谱辐射值而冰川的光谱辐射值较高且与其他地物区别性较好, 因此本文采用比值阈值和NIR水体识别相结合的方法提取冰川。即对Landsat影像红光波段R与短波红外波段SWIR进行比值运算, 设定阈值S₁, 反复实验尝试S₁阈值设定为1.6~2.4; 对地物在近红外波段NIR的统计直方图分析设定液态水体的阈值为S₂, 实验尝试表明阈值S₂设定为液态水体辐射值的上界能有效剔除水体(图1第二行)。建立知识规则:R/SWIR> S₁ & NIR> S₂, 进行决策树分类, 得出冰川边界(图1第三行), 根据样区(本文精度评估选择4个样区)分析计算, 比值阈值法提取的样区初始冰川面积为438.05 km², 误差率达到149.66%; 而比值阈值结合NIR水体识别法提取的样区初始冰川面积为185.11 km², 误差率仅为5.50%。因此该方法相比于比值阈值法有了很大改善, 显著提高了冰川解译效率。

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图1 “ 比值阈值-NIR水体识别法” 冰川提取及NIR统计直方图
第一行是使用常规比值阈值法从3幅遥感数据(TM/ETM+/OLI)中提取的冰川初始边界, 第二行是对应的3幅遥感数据近红外波段的地物统计分布直方图, 第三行是使用比值阈值法与NIR水体识别相结合的方法从上面对应的3幅遥感数据中提取的冰川初始边界Fig.1 Glaciers extraction based on “ the ratio threshold-NIR water identification method” and NIR histogram
The data in the first row are initial glacier boundaries from three remote sensing images which used the common ratio threshold. The second are statistical histograms of NIR from the three images. The third are glacier boundaries from the three remote sensing images based on “ the ratio threshold-NIR water identification method”

同时, 冰川区域的遥感影像常常受积雪、阴影、云层等的影响, 很难从单一时相的影像上得到准确的冰川边界^[15], 需要结合多时相遥感影像对前面自动提取的冰川边界进行目视解译修正和其他处理, 得到最终较准确的冰川边界。

2.3 气候变化研究方法

采用克里金(Kriging)插值方法对气候数据进行处理得到研究区气象数据的空间插值, 本文为了揭示气候分布和变化特征及其与冰川变化的关系, 只对研究区附近多个气象站不同时段的年平均气温和降水量及其变化进行空间插值分析, 同时由于研究区域范围比较大, 对研究区划分后以各个小区域的冰川中心点对应的气温降水量插值代表各自区域, 研究其冰川变化差异性原因。

2.4 误差分析

目视解译是目前基于遥感影像冰川解译的最准确的方法^[16], 本文选用4个随机分布的样区(图2), 采用完全目视解译的方法获得该区域冰川范围作为基准数据, 以此为参考对本文提取的冰川数据进行误差分析, 即冰川面积误差为:

$\begin{matrix} φ = \frac{| P - Q |}{P} \times 100 % \end{matrix}$ (1)

式中:φ 为冰川面积误差, P为完全目视解译法提取的样区冰川面积, Q为其他方法获得的冰川面积。本文选择的4个样区总面积为9 641.90 km², 完全目视解译得到的样区参考冰川面积为175.46 km², 计算得出本文冰川面积为173.16 km², 误差约为1.31%。

3 结果与分析

3.1 冰川变化概况

通过遥感监测得到1990年、2000年、2015年3期冰川分布及变化情况(图2和表2), 统计表明:1990— 2015年唐古拉山西段冰川面积由1 693.65 km²退缩到1 490.81 km², 退缩了202.84 km², 约占1990年冰川总面积的11.98%。21世纪以来研究区冰川退缩明显加快, 退缩面积达到150.38 km², 年平均退缩速率为10.03 km²/a, 几乎是1990— 2000年的2倍(表2)。根据冰川编目数据, 1990— 2015年研究区有25条冰川完全融化消失, 研究发现近25年来绝大多数冰川在不断退缩, 冰舌末端持续后退, 但长江源格拉丹冬地区5K451F0008, 5K451F0012, 5K451F0030, 5K451F0033, 5K451F0035, 5Z213A0007, 5Z213A0009, 5Z213B00168等8条冰川的冰舌末端出现较明显的前进情况。

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	图2 研究区冰川分布图国界和行政界线数据来源于国家基础地理信息系统Fig.2 The distribution and samples of the glacier in study region The data of national boundary and administrative boundary coming from National Geomatics Center of China

表2 1990— 2015年冰川面积和储量变化 Table 2 The variation of glacier area and volume from 1990 to 2015

3.2 不同海拔区间和不同坡向冰川的变化

研究区冰川退缩主要集中在低海拔区域, 分布在5 800 m以下的冰川退缩面积达到总退缩面积的94.84%, 而6 000 m以上的仅占0.70% , 不同海拔区间内冰川面积分布见图3, 各区间内冰川退缩幅度随海拔降低呈现出明显的递增趋势, 分别为1.74%, 3.00%, 7.77%, 16.97%和48.42%。

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	图3 不同海拔区间内冰川面积分布图Fig.3 The distribution of glaciers in different elevation grade

利用DEM数据对研究区冰川坡向分析显示该区域冰川分布呈现出东北多西南少的特点(图4), 北、东北、西北、东朝向的冰川面积达到1 058.14 km²(约占总冰川面积的62.48%), 而且偏北偏东方向的冰川消融更严重, 东北、东、北朝向冰川退缩幅度最大, 分别占自身的13.64%, 13.01%和12.27%。本文研究认为这种变化可能与研究区的气候特征和水汽来源有关, 据李生辰等^[10]的研究, 该区域雨季水汽主要来源于南边界的西南气流, 其次是西边界的偏西气流和北边界的西北气流。因此, 研究区冰川消融季期间偏西偏南方位水汽来源相对充足, 对冰川的补偿作用相对较强, 从而减缓了该朝向冰川的退缩速度。

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	图4 不同坡向冰川分布图Fig.4 The distribution of glaciers from different aspects

3.3 气候变化

研究区范围比较大但气象站却比较少, 尤其是没有能直接反映冰川区域气候变化的气象站点, 本文利用克里金算法对周围气象站的气温降水数据进行插值分析, 得到相对较准确的能反映冰川区气温降水变化分布的数据。最终选择研究区400 km范围内、海拔4 000 m以上且研究期间无数据缺失的气象站, 分别是伍道梁、沱沱河、安多、索县、杂多、申扎、班戈、那曲、当雄、嘉黎气象站。

通过克里金插值得出研究区1980— 1989年、1990— 1999年、2000— 2013年的平均气温和降水插值, 并对不同时段插值数据进行栅格计算得出能反映不同时段气温降水空间变化的插值图(图5)。研究发现唐古拉山西段整体气温普遍上升, 研究区内较高温度的区域面积(如0 ℃以上的区域)不断扩大而温度相对较低的区域面积持续减少, 整体降水量先降低后增加, 呈现出东南部相对较湿热而西北部干冷的特点。冰川区域的温度阶层跨度比较大, 达到5 ℃, 西北区域温度明显低于东南区域, 温度随时间变化持续上升且北部增温比南部更显著, 1990— 1999年相对于1980— 1989年最大增温区域出现在冰川区以北, 2000— 2013年相对于1990— 1999年最大增温区几乎已经覆盖整个冰川区域; 冰川区降水量东西分布差异不大, 几乎均集中在300~500 mm, 近25年来降水量先减少后增加, 2000— 2013年整个研究区大范围内的年均降水量相比于前一时段有所上升。本文得到的研究区气候特征与变化情况与李林等^[17]、姜永见等^[18]和秦小静等^[19]对青藏高原总体气候变化情况和区域气候特征的研究比较吻合。以研究区1990年冰川中心为区域代表点, 得出冰川区域1980— 1989年、1990— 1999年、2000— 2013年年平均温度分别为-3.53, -3.20和-2.22 ℃; 年平均降水量分别为384.49, 354.27和428.13 mm。近30多年来升温高达1.31 ℃, 而降水量先减少后增加, 变化幅度在20.85%以内。

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	图5 不同阶段平均气温和降水对比变化插值图Fig.5 The variation of mean annual temperature and precipitation from different period

4 讨论

4.1 冰川变化与气候变化的关系

前文研究表明唐古拉山西段冰川持续退缩, 近25年来退缩了202.84 km²(约11.98%), 且21世纪以来冰川退缩明显加快, 2000— 2015年冰川退缩比例达到9.16%, 而1990— 2000年仅退缩了3.10%, 21世纪以来冰川退缩速率几乎是前10年的2倍。空间插值显示1990年以来冰川区域升温比较显著, 升温幅度达到0.57 ℃/10a, 尤其是21世纪以来年平均气温相比前10年上升了近1 ℃。而降水量整体呈现出先减少后增加的趋势, 但总体变化幅度不大(变化幅度为6.61%~20.45%)。据怀保娟等^[20]的研究表明小范围内降水量的增加不足以平衡升温对冰川变化的影响。因此, 本文研究认为近25年来唐古拉山西段冰川的持续退缩主要是由升温引起的, 且21世纪以来气温的显著上升进一步造成研究区冰川的加速退缩。

4.2 其他学者对唐古拉山冰川的研究对比

其他学者对唐古拉山区域冰川的研究情况见表3。本文研究结果与其他学者比较相似, 即近几十年以来唐古拉山西段冰川总体处于不断退缩状态, 格拉丹东区域冰川退缩速率从20世纪60年代到现在呈现出逐渐加快的趋势。研究还发现唐古拉山西段冰川退缩两边比中间(格拉丹东)更快, 尤其是研究区东南区域最为严重, 近25年来退缩比例达到19.99%。研究认为这可能主要是由不同区域的冰川分布海拔和冰川规模特征决定的, 东南区域平均冰川规模为最小, 海拔最低(平均冰川规模为1.01 km², 海拔5 567 m), 而中间格拉丹东冰川分布区域海拔最高, 冰川规模最大。另外, 虽然整体气温降水空间变化值差异不太明显, 但空间插值分布表明各区域升温和降水变化存在一定的时间和空间差异性, 研究区西北— 东南气温分布呈现出由低到高的趋势, 各区域降水分布和变化也表现出一定的空间差异性。本文认为研究区不同区域冰川变化差异性也可能与研究区温度降水分布和变化特征有关。

表3 我国其他学者对唐古拉山冰川的研究情况 Table 3 Statistics of glacier study of other scholars in Tanggula Mountains

5 结论

本文利用比值阈值与NIR水体识别相结合的方法提取并研究了唐古拉山西段近25年来的冰川变化状况和规律, 通过空间插值构建研究区气候分布变化状况, 以此为基础分析揭示冰川变化与气候变化的关系, 得到以下结论:

(1) 唐古拉山西段冰川总体退缩较严重, 1990— 2015年冰川面积由1 693.65 km²退缩到1 490.81 km², 退缩了202.84 km², 占1990年冰川面积的11.98%; 近25年有25条冰川完全消失。

(2) 研究区冰川退缩主要发生在海拔5 800 m以下地区, 约占总退缩面积的94.84%; 可能受水汽来源的影响研究区东北、东、北朝向的冰川相比于其他朝向退缩更严重, 退缩幅度更大。

(3) 空间插值分析表明研究区东南部相对较湿热而西北部干冷, 西北— 东南方向温度分布呈现由低到高的变化趋势, 区域整体气温普遍上升, 尤其是2000年以来升温更加显著。插值变化显示增温区从研究区中心向周围辐射, 高增温区几乎已经覆盖整个冰川区域; 而降水量先减少后增加, 整体变化幅度不大。

(4) 唐古拉山西段冰川的加速退缩主要是由升温造成的。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

参考文献

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2011

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. 2011, 56(32):2 708-2 716 DOI:doi:10.1007/s11769-011-0446-4

Recent glacial retreat and its effect on water resources in Eastern Xinjiang

近期新疆东天山冰川退缩及其对水资源影响

Li Kaiming , Li Zhongqin , Gao Wenyu

李开明, 李忠勤, 高闻宇

中国科学院机构知识库(中国科学院机构知识库网格（CAS IR GRID）)以发展机构知识能力和知识管理能力为目标，快速实现对本机构知识资产的收集、长期保存、合理传播利用，积极建设对知识内容进行捕获、转化、传播、利用和审计的能力，逐步建设包括知识内容分析、关系分析和能力审计在内的知识服务能力，开展综合知识管理。

... 1 引言冰川是陆地上重要的淡水资源,对生态环境、经济建设以及区域可持续发展都有重要作用^[1],但是随着气候变化尤其是近几十年来全球升温的影响^[2],世界上大多数冰川都出现一些重要的变化 ...

2014

0.0

. 2014, 33(7):874-883 DOI:doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.07.002

Climate change science and sustainable development

气候变化科学与人类可持续发展

Qin Dahe.

秦大河

Since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007, new observations have further proved that the warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. Each of the last three successive decades before 2012 has been successively warmer at global mean surface temperature than any preceding decade since 1850. 1983-2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years. From 1998 to 2012, the rate of warming of the global land surface slowed down, but it did not reflect the long-term trends in climate change. The ocean has warmed, and the upper 75 m of the ocean warmed by more than 0.11℃ per decade since 1970. Over the period of 1971 to 2010, 93% of the net energy increase in the Earth's climate system was stored in the oceans. The rate of global mean sea level rise has accelerated, which was up to 3.2 mm yr-1 between 1993 and 2010. Anthropogenic global ocean carbon stocks were likely to have increased and caused acidification of the ocean surface water. Since 1971, the glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass. Since 1979, the Arctic sea ice extent deceased at 3.5% to 4.1% per decade, and the Antarctic sea ice extent in the same period increased by 1.2% to 1.8% per decade. The extent of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased. Since the early 1980s, the permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions. Human influence has been detected in the warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, changes in the water cycle, reductions in snow and ice, global mean sea level rise, and changes in climate extremes. The largest contribution to the increase in the anthropogenic radiative forcing was by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 since 1750. It led to more than half of global warming since the 1950s (with 95 % confidence). It is predicted using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) that the global mean surface temperature will continue to rise for the end of this century, the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and heavy precipitation will increase, and precipitation will present a trend of "the dry becomes drier, the wet becomes wetter". The temperature of the upper ocean will increase by 0.6 to 2.0℃ compared to the period of 1986 to 2005, heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean which will affect ocean circulation, and sea level will rise by 0.26 to 0.82 m in 2100. Cryosphere will continue to warm. To control global warming, humans need to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. If the increase in temperature is higher than 2℃ than before industrialization, the mean annual economic losses worldwide will reach 0.2% to 2.0% of income, and cause large-scale irreversible effects, including death, disease, food insecurity, inland flooding and water logging, and rural drinking water and irrigation difficulties that affect human security. If taking prompt actions, however, it is still possible to limit the increase in temperature within 2℃. To curb the gradually out-of-control global warming and achieve the goal of sustainable development of the human society, global efforts to reduce emissions are needed.

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）自2007 年发布第四次评估报告（AR4）以来，新的观测证据进一步证明，全球气候系统变暖是毋庸置疑的事实。2012 年之前的3 个连续10 年的全球地表平均气温，都比1850 年以来任何一个10 年更高，且可能是过去1400 年来最热的30 年。虽然1998-2012 年全球地表增温速率趋缓，但还不能反映出气候变化的长期趋势。1970 年以来海洋在变暖，海洋上层75 m以上的海水温度每10 年升温幅度超过0.11℃；1971-2010 年地球气候系统增加的净能量中，93%被海洋吸收。全球平均海平面上升速率加快，1993-2010 年间高达3.2 mm/年。全球海洋的人为碳库很可能已增加，导致海洋表层水酸化。1971 年以来，全球几乎所有冰川、格陵兰冰盖和南极冰盖的冰量都在损失。其中1979 年以来北极海冰范围以每10 年3.5%~4.1%的速率缩小，同期南极海冰范围以每10 年1.2%~1.8%的速率增大。北半球积雪范围在缩小。20 世纪80 年代初以来，大多数地区的多年冻土温度升高。已在大气和海洋变暖、水循环变化、冰冻圈退缩、海平面上升和极端气候事件的变化中检测到人类活动影响的信号。1750 年以来大气CO 2 浓度的增加是人为辐射强迫增加的主因，导致20 世纪50 年代以来50%以上的全球气候变暖，其信度超过95%。采用CMIP5 模式和典型浓度路径（RCPs），预估本世纪末全球地表平均气温将继续升高，热浪、强降水等极端事件的发生频率将增加，降水将呈现“干者愈干、湿者愈湿”趋势。海洋上层的温度比1986-2005 年间升高0.6~2.0℃，热量将从海表传向深海，并影响大洋环流，2100 年海平面将上升0.26~0.82m。冰冻圈将继续变暖。为控制气候变暖，人类需要减少温室气体排放。如果较工业化之前的温升达到2℃，全球年均经济损失将达到收入的0.2%~2.0%，并造成大范围不可逆的影响，导致死亡、疾病、食品安全、内陆洪涝、农村饮水和灌溉困难等问题，影响人类安全。但如果采取积极行动，2℃的温升目标仍可望达到。为遏制逐渐失控的全球变暖，需全球共同努力减排，以实现人类可持续发展的理想。

2009

0.0

. 2009, 28(2):231-237 DOI:doi:doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.02.010

Progress in glacier variations in China and its sensitivity to climatic change during the past century

近百年来中国冰川变化及其对气候变化的敏感性研究进展

Duan Jianping , Wang Lili , Ren Jiawen

段建平, 王丽丽, 任贾文

冰川变化是气候变化的产物，也是气候变化的指示器。在全球变暖的背景下，近百年来我国冰川消融强烈，以退缩为主。本文对近百年来我国冰川末端退缩、物质平衡变化和冰川面积变化方面的研究成果进行了综合分析，从时间和空间两方面探讨了我国冰川变化对气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明，我国冰川末端变化对气候变化的响应在时间上要滞后10~20年，冰川末端退缩、物质平衡变化和面积变化的幅度在青藏高原边缘和周边地区要大于高原内部，对气候变化响应的敏感性也由内部向边缘增强。最后指出了我国冰川变化研究中存在的主要问题及今后发展趋势。

... 青藏高原的大多数冰川退缩现象也越来越严重^[3~5],引起了国内外学者的广泛关注和研究,取得了一些比较重要的进展和成果 ...

2013

0.0

. 2013, 28(11):1 257-1 268 DOI:doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.11.1257

The features of climate variation and glacier response in Mt.Yulong,Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

青藏高原东南缘丽江玉龙雪山气候变化特征及其对冰川变化的影响

Xin Huijuan , He Yuanqing , Zhang Tao

辛惠娟, 何元庆, 张涛

The Features of climate change in Mt.Yulong, southeasten Tibetan Plateau were analyzed using linear regression, MannKendall abrupt test and Morlet wavelet analyses. In addition, the relationship between glacier retreating (Baishui Glacier No.1) and climate warming wasalso analyzed in this study. The main results are showedas follow: ① The annual mean temperature, precipitation have an increasing trend, withinclination rates being 0.15℃/10a and 9.0 mm/10a;annual temperaturedramatically ascend in 1998 with the change values 0.7 ℃; Morlet waveletsin annual temperature andtemperature in dry season mainly have a 10 to 15year periods,while annual precipitation amount and the precipitation in rainyseason presented a quasi 10 year periods. ②Prior to 1998, the important meteorological factor influencing the change of Baishui Glacier No.1 are temperature and precipitation, while in the following years, temperature plays a more important role in affecting its retreat and advance; The main characteristic ofverticalclimate change in Mt. Yulong (1982/2009) is that the cold season shortens and temperature rises with elevation, and the maximal value of increased temperature in glacier zone is 2.2~2.5 ℃, resulting in greatly accelerated glacier ablation.

通过线性倾向估计、MannKendall突变检验、小波变换等方法,系统分析了青藏高原东南缘丽江玉龙雪山地区气候的变化趋势、突变和周期特征,在此基础上探讨了玉龙雪山白水1号冰川进退与该地区气候变化之间的关系。结果表明：①1951—2011年丽江气温、降水变化倾向分别为0.15℃/10 a和9.0 mm/10 a；年气温在1998年前后存在显著突变,年降水量突变不明显；干季气温与年气温主要表现为10~15 a的周期,湿季降水与年降水存在1个准10 a的变化周期。②1998年之前白水1号冰川末端进退受气温与降水共同控制,1998年之后则主要受控于气温；冷季缩短、气温增加是玉龙雪山东坡不同海拔高度气温变化的主要特征,其中冰川区增温值最大在2.2～2.5 ℃之间,冰川加速消融。

2015

0.0

. 2015, 30(2):237-246 DOI:doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.02.0237

Method review of modern glacier volume change

现代冰川体积变化研究方法综述

Wu Shanshan , Yao Zhijun , Jiang Liguang

吴珊珊, 姚治君, 姜丽光

Glaciers, which are sensitive indicators of climate warming, are generally thinning and retreating at an accelerated rate. Glacier melting has wide-ranging consequences such as sea-level rise, regional water cycle, and water availability. Studies of ice volume change, which is a significant part of glacier studies, are increasingly concerned by more researchers. In this article,volume changes of ice caps and mountain glaciers were discussed. Based on this, study methods of glacier volume or ice thickness change were highlighted. In general, there are four methods of investigating glacier volume change. It has improved from traditional ground-based techniques, empirical equation of glacier area and volume, glacier topographic survey to remote sensing monitoring. Due to its novel, rapid and relatively inexpensive techniques, glacier monitoring using remote sensing technique could effectively solve the limited data of remote location in alpine regions. Remote sensing, GIS and GPS technologies will continue to play a significant role in the estimation of volume or ice thickness of mountain glaciers and ice caps.

冰川作为气候变化的指示器,在气候变暖的趋势下呈加速退缩的趋势。冰川消融加速对海平面上升、区域水循环和水资源可获取性均有重要影响。冰川体积作为冰川研究的一项重要内容,越来越被研究者关注。围绕极地冰盖、山地冰川体积研究概况,较系统地总结分析研究冰川体积变化的方法,主要包括传统测量方法、统计公式法、冰川地形测量法和遥感监测法,现代冰川体积变化的研究也由传统的实地测量、统计公式法等向遥感监测研究发展,并分析各方法在主要冰川类型中的应用情况。借助遥感手段监测冰川动态变化可有效解决高寒山区资料受限的问题,成为冰川学发展的重要趋势。

... 青藏高原的大多数冰川退缩现象也越来越严重^[3~5],引起了国内外学者的广泛关注和研究,取得了一些比较重要的进展和成果 ...

2015

0.0

... 但是这些研究主要集中在天山、祁连山、昆仑山、横断山脉等地区^[6],还有许多区域缺乏深入广泛的监测和研究 ...

2014

0.0

. 2014, 37(2):212-221

Overall and local changing patterns of main glaciers and their responses to climate change in Geladandong area of Yangtze Headwater region during 1969-2012

1969—2012年长江源各拉丹冬地区主要冰川整体和局部变化及其对气候变化的响应

Zhang Liyun , Tang Ya , Yang Xin

张立芸, 唐亚, 杨欣

Studies on glacier change can provide profound implications to understand ecosystem response to global climate change at regional scale. Geladandong area，as the Yangtze headwater region with restricted environmental conditions，is largely in the absence of scientific attention，especially that focusing on changing pattern of glaciers. This study aims to reveal the overall and local changing patterns of the main glaciers and their responses to climate change. Repeated aerial photographs and satellite images taken in 1969，1973，1992，2001 and 2012 were used to analyze overall changing patterns of the Gangjiaquba glacier and the Jianggudiru glacier. Field photographs of the glaciers taken in 1986，1994，1999 and 2003 were compared with repeated ones taken in 2010 to analyze local changing patterns of the Gangjiaquba glacier and the Jianggudiru glacier. Meteorological data at the Tuotuohe Town during 1970-2009 were used to analyze changing trends and interdecadal variations of temperature and precipitation. Software for image processing and editing （Adobe Photoshop CS3 Extended） was used to measure and calculate glacier outline difference between each of repeated aerial photographs and satellite images. Field measurement was conducted to locate the geographical coordinates of the past and present edges of glaciers based on historical photographs，and then to calculate retreating distances of glaciers. Software for statistical analyzing and image processing （OriginPro 8.6.0） was used to analyze the changing trends and interdecadal variations of meteorological variables. The response of glaciers to climate change was explored by discussing possible linkages between changing patterns of main glaciers and meteorological variables. Results show as follows：（1） the Gangjiaquba glacier and the Jianggudiru glacier retreated at both overall and local levels during 1969-2012；（2） local temperature rose during 1970-2009 with the most significant increase in 2000s；and （3） local precipitation exhibited no significant changing trend during 1970-2009 but with the highest mean annual precipitation in the 2000s. Generally，changing patterns of main glaciers are correlated to temperature and precipitation in study area，representing a clear response of glacier variation to changing climate. Furthermore，the climate-driven glacier variation produces considerable impacts on basin area at ecological，economic and social perspectives. This study provides sound explanation for the response of glacier variation to climate change．Historical photographs taken in the field are very rare and then meaningful in understanding glacier variation at local level，especially considering the field work in locations like study area，which is very time- and money-consuming. Geladandong area of the Yangtze headwater region is largely ignored due to topographic isolation and complexity，but the unique environmental characteristics make this region an ideal place for studying regional responses to global climate change. This study is a useful attempt，based on graphical analysis method，to demonstrate changing patterns of main glaciers at both overall and local levels．

气候变化背景下长江源各拉丹冬地区冰川的变化特征对于丰富全球气候变化区域响应的研究有重要意义。选择长江源各拉丹冬地区，基于1969-2012年的重复航空摄影和卫星影像以及1986-1999年与2010年的实地重复摄影照片，分析了岗加曲巴冰川和姜古迪如冰川整体和局部的变化；另外，根据1970-2009年的气象数据，分析了气候的变化趋势以及年代际差别。结果表明：1969-2012年岗加曲巴冰川和姜古迪如冰川的整体和局部退缩明显；1970-2009年气温显著升高，以21世纪10年代最为突出；1970-2009年降水量整体无显著变化趋势，以21世纪10年代最大；冰川变化与气候变化表现出一定的对应关系。在气候变化背景下，冰川变化对流域的自然、社会和经济都有显著的影响。

... 东南走势,长度约450 km,最高峰格拉丹冬海拔达到6 621 m^[7],冰川多分布在5 000 m以上的高海拔地区 ...

2013

0.0

... 研究区属高原季风气候区,四季温差小干湿季分明^[8,9] ...

2015

0.0

. 2015, 33(4):546-554 DOI:doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-04-0546

Climatic characteristics of dry and wet season in the southeast side of the Tibetan Plateau and its causes

青藏高原东南侧干湿季气候特征与成因

Duan Wei , Duan Xu , Fan Feng

段玮, 段旭, 樊风

摘　要：利用台站降水、蒸发资料和NCEP再分析资料，通过季节水汽输送、大气可降水量分布、水汽辐合辐散诊断对西南水汽通道上青藏高原东南侧干、湿季气候特征及成因进行了分析。结果显示，四季青藏高原东南侧均存在西南水汽输送，即使冬、春季也有较强盛的水汽输送，但其上空四季均维持有水汽辐散场，不利于降水发生和维持，尤其冬、春季强度更强、范围更广。同时，受低纬高原地形影响，这一地区大气气柱短，导致青藏高原东南侧大气可降水量比周边地区明显偏少，且存在明显的季节变化，冬、春季大气可降水量仅为夏季的1/3~1/2。可见，青藏高原东南侧季节性干旱受冬、春季大气可降水量的减少和其上空更强更广的水汽辐散场共同影响所致。

... 研究区属高原季风气候区,四季温差小干湿季分明^[8,9] ...

2009

0.0

. 2009, 67(4):591-598 DOI:10.11676/qxxb2009.059

The climatic characteristics of vapor transportation in rainy season of the origin area of three rivers in Qinhai-Xizang Plateau

青藏高原“三江源地区”雨季水汽输送特征

Li Shengchen , Li Dongliang , Zhao Ping

李生辰, 李栋梁, 赵平

Using NCEP/NCAR data and 40 years precipitation data of Qinhai Xizang Plateau meteorological stations. The results showed that the main water resource of the origin area of three rivers (Changjiang, Huanghe, Lancangjiang) in Plateau is the southwest wet airflow by East Asia and Indian monsoon and the secondly is the west airflow from Middle Asia high pressure of west boundary and the third one is the north airflow in the westerlies. These three different airflows of large-scale circulation background influx to the three rivers in Plateau and make thisregion lie in the convergence area of vapor from June to September. At the same time the ground layer of the source of three rivers in Plateau maintain stationary weather systems such as shear and vortex and so on under the dynamic effect of large topography of Qinhai-Xizang Plateau and form the source of rivers in this area being perpetual rainfall. The vapor flux of main importing boundary of the source of three rivers in Plateau present descending trend in near 40 years and will influence on the precipitation change of the origin area of three rivers in the future.

利用40 年 NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和青藏高原三江源地区的降水资料，分析了三江源地区的水汽输送特征。研究表明：在东亚和印度季风驱动下的西南暖湿气流是三江源地区空中主要水汽来源，其次是来自西边界中东高压中的偏西气流和西风带中的偏北气流，这3种大尺度环流背景的气流汇集到三江源区，使该地区6—9月处在水汽辐合区内，同时在高原大地形的动力作用下，三江源地区近地面层维持定常的切变、低涡等天气系统，源源不断的降水为这一区域形成江河源头创造了条件。在水汽输入的各边界中，南边界季节变化特征显著，冬、春季水汽输入量小，夏、秋季水汽输入量大，9月达到全年的最大值。西边界的水汽输入量季节变化特征不明显，一年四季有水汽输入。北边界冬、春季水汽输入量小，夏、秋季水汽输入量大，6月达到全年的最大值。水汽输出主要在东边界。从三江源地区空中净水汽输入（输出）量收支的月际变化来看，6—9月水汽是收入的，5月收支平衡，10月到次年4月水汽是支出的，三江源地区的这种净水汽输入（输出）量收支的月际变化与该地区降水量的月际变化基本一致。冬、春季以西边界的水汽输入为主，夏、秋季以南边界的水汽输入为主。青藏高原三江源地区主要水汽输入边界的水汽通量近40 年来呈现减少的变化趋势，这将影响到三江源地区未来的降水变化。

... 同时又受东亚季风、印度季风的影响,雨季降水主要来自南边界的西南气流、西边界的偏西气流及北边界的西北气流^[10],研究区南部湿热北部干冷,根据安多和沱沱河气象站记录该区域年平均气温在-7 ...

... 本文研究认为这种变化可能与研究区的气候特征和水汽来源有关,据李生辰等^[10]的研究,该区域雨季水汽主要来源于南边界的西南气流,其次是西边界的偏西气流和北边界的西北气流 ...

2012

0.0

... 据第一次冰川编目^[11],该区域有现代冰川894条,总面积达到1 939 ...

2014

0.0

... 73 km²(根据第二次冰川编目^[12],研究区有964条冰川,冰川面积为1 557 ...

2013

0.0

. 2013, 32(4):548-559 DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.04.007

Variation of west Kunlun Mountains glacier during 1990-2011

1990—2011年西昆仑峰区冰川变化的遥感监测

Li Chengxiu , Yang Taibao , Tian Hongzhen

李成秀, 杨太保, 田洪阵

Institution of Glaciology and Ecogeography, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Mountain glaciers are a potential climate indicator because they are sensitive to climate changes. The water released from Kunlun Mountains glaciers is the major source of stream flow to the Tarim Basin and nearly 6.3milion people who live in the oasis of Tarim Basin rely on the glacier runoff. Remote sensing has proved to be the best method of investigating the extent of glacial variations in remote mountainous areas. Using remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) technologies, we analyzed glacier changes in the Western Kunlun Mountains on the Northwestern Tibetan Plateau. The satellite images (Landsat TM, ETM+) from 1990 to 2011 were used to extract the extent of the glaciers. The results indicated that there was no significant change in glacier area in the study area as a whole, and the glacier area decreased about 16.83 km 2 (0.65%) over the 22 years. But the glacier changes were not homogeneous. The changes in single glacier area have differed among the study regions, and some glaciers advanced while other glaciers retreated. ZhongFeng glacier advanced at 661 m/a from 2002 to 2004 and we infer that the ZhongFeng glacier is a surge glacier. Chongce glacier advanced at 200 m/a from 1991 to 1998 and the glacier area increased 9.47 km 2 . This glacier is characteristic of surge glacier. The temperature showed an increasing trend from 1960 to 2010, while precipitation increased slightly. The Guliya ice core indicates that the temperature and precipitation increased after twenty century. The increase in air temperature resulted in the slight glacier recession. The low retreat rate of the glaciers may be due to two factors: the large scale of the glaciers and the increasing precipitation accompanied by strengthening westerlies.

本文应用Landsat 5、7 TM、ETM+影像分析1990-2011年昆仑山西段昆仑峰区冰川变化特征,结果表明:1990-2011年冰川面积减少16.83 km 2 ,退缩率仅为0.65%,冰川退缩趋势不明显。单条冰川变化有进有退,中峰冰川末端在2002-2004年以661 m/a的速率前进,初步判定为跃动冰川。1991-1998年,崇测冰川面积增加9.47 km 2 ,冰川末端以200 m/a的速率前进,不排除有跃动冰川的可能性。尽管近年来全球气温普遍上升,大量冰川处于退缩状态,但统计已有研究结果发现近50年来青藏高原存在冰川长度、面积增加,冰川物质平衡为正的现象,表现出冰川对气候变化复杂的反馈机制。通过分析气象站点和冰芯资料,研究区周边地区气温上升、降水量缓慢增加可能是冰川微弱退缩的原因之一;增强的西风环流带来更多的降水、研究区以极大陆型大规模冰川为主,也可能是冰川退缩幅度较小的原因。

... gov/),主要有Landsat TM/ ETM+/OLI数据(表1),该数据已经经过系统辐射校正和地面控制点校正,满足冰川研究要求^[13] ...

2013

0.0

. 2013, 27(2):77-82

Response of glacier variation in the southern Altai Mountains to climate change during the last 40 years

近40a来南阿尔泰山区现代冰川变化及其对气候变化的响应

Wang Xiuna , Yang Taibao , Tian Hongzhen

王秀娜, 杨太保, 田洪振

以1972,1989,2000,2011四个不同时段的遥感影像资料为基础,通过计算机自动提取结合人工解译获得研究区各时段冰川信息。参考世界冰川编目(WGI)分别对分布在中国、俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦境内的冰川进行编目及属性更新,完成南阿尔泰山蒙古境内冰川编目。对不同时段冰川信息进行对比,并结合气温、降水等气候资料对其变化特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)1972-2011a,南阿尔泰山区冰川总面积从633.91km2减少至329.03km2,退缩面积304.88km2,占1972a冰川总面积的48.1%;(2)不同面积等级冰川数量与面积变化呈反相关关系,小冰川对气候的响应更为敏感;(3)研究区各坡向冰川均在退缩,其中南向、东北向、东向、北向退缩较快,西向、西南向、东南向、西北向相对缓慢;(4)1972-2008a研究区增温显著,降水以1987a为界先增后波动中稳定,二者的水热组合是区内冰川退缩的主要原因。

... 2 冰川解译方法前人研究表明,比值阈值法是一种比较常用的有效的冰川提取方法^[14],该方法利用冰川在红光波段R(Landsat TM/ETM+对应的是band3,OLI对应的是band4)具有较高的光谱辐射值而在短波红外波段SWIR(Landsat TM/ETM+对应的是band5,OLI对应的是band6)具有较低的辐射值,对红光波段和短波红外波段进行波段比值运算R/SWIR,得到比值影像 ...

2015

0.0

. 2015, 44(1):85-89 DOI:doi:10.11947/j.AGCS.2015.20130514

Information extraction method of alpine glaciers with multitemporal and multiangle remote sensing

高山冰川多时相多角度遥感信息提取方法

Du Weibing , Li Junli , Bao Anming

都伟冰, 李均力, 包安明

A glacier extraction method based on multitemporal and multiangle remote sensing images is proposed. Firstly, a "global-local" threshold segmentation method is applied to extract snow ice boundaries with multitemporal remote sensing images. Secondly, the glacier boundaries hidden by mountain shadows are restored with topographic features and multiangle information in different remote sensing images. Finally, the best glacier extents are the intersections of different glacier/snow extents. In order to validate the method, a glacier extraction is tested with 4 Landsat images during 2009-2010 in the western part of Tumur peak of the Tienshan Mountains. The results show that the proposed method performs well in extracting the glacier boundaries inside the mountain shadows with multiangle images.

提出一种多角度遥感影像的冰川信息提取方法.通过"全域—局部"的阈值分割方法获取短时期内不同时相的遥感影像的冰雪边界,结合地形信息和多时相遥感影像的太阳角度信息,联合消除山体阴影对冰川的遮挡,并以多期影像的最小冰雪边界作为最佳冰川边界.以托木尔峰西侧冰川为研究对象,采用2009—2010年4个时相的遥感影像提取冰川信息.结果表明多角度遥感提取的冰川边界效果好,能有效地排除积雪与山体阴影的干扰.

... 同时,冰川区域的遥感影像常常受积雪、阴影、云层等的影响,很难从单一时相的影像上得到准确的冰川边界^[15],需要结合多时相遥感影像对前面自动提取的冰川边界进行目视解译修正和其他处理,得到最终较准确的冰川边界 ...

2014

0.0

. 2014, 37(5):908-915

Glacier shrinkage and its dependence on climate in the Central Asia Alatau Region

中亚阿拉套地区冰川退缩与气候变化关系研究

He Yi , Yang Taibao , Ji Qin

何毅, 杨太保, 冀琴

Mountain glaciers are important fresh water resources in the arid region and they are also one of potential climate indicators because of their sensibility to climate changes. It is estimated that 82.2% of glaciers in western China have been in a state of retreat，which the glacial area decreased by 4.5% in recent 50 years. Under this background，we can not only understand the characteristics and trends of glacier change，but also understand the relationship of glacier response to climate change，and thus likely to predict future changes in glacier. Researches on glacier change have been limited in Chinese Tianshan Mountains，despite the fact that the number of glaciers in the Tianshan Mountains is the largest among all mountain ranges in China，and the glaciers in this region provide very important water resources for local economic development and drinking water for man use. The Alatau Mountains belong to Tianshan Mountain System. Most of the researches on glaciers were sited in Tianshan Mountains but not in Alatau Mountains. Therefore，the glaciers of Alatau Mountains were selected as the study area in this paper. TM and ETM+ Landsat data from 1990 to 2011 were used to map the glacier extents by applying remote sensing image processing and visual interpretation. The details of glaciers change during the last 22 years in the Alatau regions were obtained by using GIS. Meanwhile，the meteorological data were analyzed in the paper. The results showed that the Alatau area glaciers experienced a general shrinkage，the total glacier area in the study area decreased by 20.24% from 1990-2011. Massive glaciers decomposition caused small-scale glaciers increase in total areas and numbers. The paper analyzed the reason of large change rate of glaciers，and the results indicated that the large change rate of glaciers is caused by the big proportion of small glaciers，which glaciers smaller than 1 km 2 for nearly 90% in total glaciers. At the same time，the distribution characteristics of spatial structure for the glaciers were analyzed. Based on the fractal theory，it shows that the melting rate of glaciers in the study area will remain high because of the climate warming，which is mainly caused by the area and length changes of these glaciers. By analyzing the climate records （annual mean temperature，summer mean temperature and annual precipitation） and glacier variation in the research area，it was stated that glacier changes were a response to summer temperature increase. Annual precipitation also showed an upward trend，but it had not compensated the mass loss due to ablation. Besides，topographic condition and the scale of glacier were key factors for glacier changes as well. Compared with other western regions，the Alatau region glaciers retreat exhibited rapid trend.

以1990-2011年的TM和ETM+遥感资料为信息源，通过遥感图像处理技术和目视解译方法提取冰川界限，应用GIS技术分析了阿拉套地区近22 a冰川面积变化。结果表明：1990-2011年阿拉套地区冰川呈退缩趋势，面积退缩了20.24%，大规模冰川分解使得小规模冰川的总面积和条数均有所增加，较大的变化率是由于研究区面积<1 km2的冰川数量占总数的比重较大（近90%）造成的，依据研究区冰川空间结构特征，应用分形理论对未来冰川变化进行初步预测，认为研究区冰川的消融率仍保持比较高的状态。表明阿拉套地区冰川退缩的关键因素是气候变暖，年降水量的增加不能抵消由夏季温度剧烈上升导致的冰川消融。此外，地形条件、冰川规模都是影响冰川波动的重要因素，与西部其他区域相比，阿拉套地区冰川退缩表现出较快的趋势。

... 4 误差分析目视解译是目前基于遥感影像冰川解译的最准确的方法^[16],本文选用4个随机分布的样区(图2),采用完全目视解译的方法获得该区域冰川范围作为基准数据,以此为参考对本文提取的冰川数据进行误差分析,即冰川面积误差为: ...

2010

0.0

. 2010, 6(3):181-186 DOI:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2010.03.005

Climate change and its regional differences over the Tibetan Plateau

青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究

Li Lin , Chen Xiaoguang , Wang Zhenyu

李林, 陈晓光, 王振宇

Using the meteorological observation data including temperature and precipitation at 66 stations over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2007, by means of the typical climate zoning, the spatio-temporal variations of climatic variables over the plateau in the recent 47 years were systematically studied, and the differences of climate change in different sub-regions were shown. The results indicate that the climate over the Tibetan Plateau overally showed a significant warming trend in the recent 47 years, the annual mean temperature rose at a rate of 0.37℃/10a; the warming was more remarkable in nighttime than in daytime, and in winter than in other seasons. The change from colder to warmer was the most significant in February, but the least in August, when climate showed a cooling trend in some areas. Climate warming at the edge of the plateau was more obvious than in the hinterland. The northern of Qinghai, especially the Qaidam Basin was a most sensitive area to climate change. Precipitation showed a rising trend at a tendency rate of 9.1 mm/10a; but regional differences were very apparent, the western of Sichuan, which lies in the southeast of Tibet, was the most significant in precipitation-increasing in the whole Tibetan Plateau; Precipitation in winter and spring (from December to May of the next year) in all areas increased with the climate warming; but the drought trend in the upstream of Yellow River was obvious after 1987.

利用1961-2007年青藏高原66个气象台站气温和降水量资料，通过典型气候分区，系统研究了近47年来青藏高原气温、降水量等气候因子时空演变规律，揭示了青藏高原不同区域气候变化的差异性。研究表明：近47年来，青藏高原的气候呈现出显著增暖趋势，年平均气温以0.37℃/10a的速率上升，气候变暖在夜间要较日间明显。冬季较其他季节明显，2月气温由冷向暖的转变最为显著，8月最不显著，且在某些区域有变冷迹象；高原边缘地区气候变暖要明显于高原腹地，青海北部区特别是柴达木盆地是青藏高原气候变化的敏感区。降水量总体表现出增多态势，气候倾向率达9.1 mm/10a，但区域性差异较为明显，藏东南川西区是青藏高原降水量增多最显著的地区；12月至次年5月即冬春季整个青藏高原降水量随着气候变暖而增多，7月和9月黄河上游区1987年后干旱化趋势明显。

... 本文得到的研究区气候特征与变化情况与李林等^[17]、姜永见等^[18]和秦小静等^[19]对青藏高原总体气候变化情况和区域气候特征的研究比较吻合 ...

2012

0.0

. 2012, 32(12):1 503-1 512

Climate change and its impact on the lake environment in the Tibetan Plateau in 1971-2008

青藏高原近40年来气候变化特征及湖泊环境响应

Jiang Yongjian , Li Shijie , Shen Defu

姜永见, 李世杰, 沈德福

以青藏高原52个气象台站1971~2008年的逐月气温、降水资料为基础,采用因子分析、气候趋势分析、气候突变分析等方法,对高原内部不同区域的气候变化特征进行研究,并讨论了高原湖泊环境对气候变化的响应。结果表明,近40a来,青藏高原各区域年平均气温整体持续上升,柴达木地区增温尤为显著,年平均气温增长率达0.49℃/10a;1987年和1998年各区域气温普遍由低向高突变,1998年以来增温尤为显著。年可利用降水的变化特征存在区域差异,柴达木地区、藏北南羌塘高原东部地区整体增湿。除藏东地区,青藏高原其它地区气候条件于20世纪末21世纪初由暖干向暖湿转变,受其影响,以青海湖、鄂陵湖、冬给措纳、兹格塘错为代表的高原大型湖泊表现出水位上升、湖水离子浓度减小的特征,反映了气候暖湿条件下湖泊水量的增加。

... 本文得到的研究区气候特征与变化情况与李林等^[17]、姜永见等^[18]和秦小静等^[19]对青藏高原总体气候变化情况和区域气候特征的研究比较吻合 ...

2015

0.0

. 2015, 34(2):191-195 DOI:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-5422.2015.02.025

Study on spatiotemporal variation of temperature and precipitation in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1974 to 2013

青藏高原温度与降水的时空变化研究

Qin Xiaojing , Sun Jian , Chen Tao

秦小静, 孙建, 陈涛

摘　要：为了分析近40年青藏高原温度和降水的时空变化情况,采用1974~2013年青藏高原122个气象站点的逐月气象观测资料,利用Arc GIS和Sigma Plot分析工具,得到青藏高原年平均气温、极端气温和年降水量在时间序列上的变化趋势,以及在各时段中的空间差异.研究结果表明：1974~2013年,青藏高原区域气温和降水量均呈上升趋势,平均气温增加2.40℃,平均最低气温和平均最高气温的增加速率和幅度大致相同,而极端最低气温的增长速率大于极端最高气温的增长速率.降水量从西北向东南方向逐渐增加,1974~2003年降水量的增加速率是增大的,2004~2013年增加速率减小.青藏高原降水量增加最为显著的是1994~2003年的西藏中部.

... 本文得到的研究区气候特征与变化情况与李林等^[17]、姜永见等^[18]和秦小静等^[19]对青藏高原总体气候变化情况和区域气候特征的研究比较吻合 ...

2014

0.0

. 2014, 69(3):365-367 DOI:doi:10.11821/dlxb201403008

RS analysis of glaciers change in the Heihe River Basin in the last 50 years

近50年黑河流域的冰川变化遥感分析

Huai Baojuan , Li Zhongqin , Sun Meiping

怀保娟, 李忠勤, 孙美平

The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China and it is also a hotspot in arid hydrology, water resources and other aspects of researches in cold regions. In addition, the Heihe River Basin has complete landscape, moderate watershed size, and typical social ecological environmental problems. So far, there has been no detailed assessment of glaciers change information of the whole river basin. Therefore, it is urgent to conduct studies on the assessment of glacial change in this region. Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing images, digital elevation model data and 1:50,000 topographic map data were used in this research. Through integrated computer automatic interpretation and visual interpretation methods, the object-oriented image feature extraction method was applied to extract glacier information. Glaciers change data were derived from spatial analysis, and the glacier variation and its response to climate change in the period 1956/63-2007/11 were also analyzed. The results are shown in the following. (1) In the period 1956/63-2007/11, the Heihe River Basin's glaciers had an evident retreat trend, the total area of glaciers decreased from 361.69 km 2 to 231.17 km 2 , at a rate of 36.08%, and average single glacier area decreased by 0.14 km 2 ; the total number of glaciers decreased from 967 to 800. (2) Glaciers in this basin are mainly distributed at elevations of 4300-4400 m, 4400-4500 m and 4500-4600 m; there are significant differences in glacial distribution and glacial change. (3) Compared with other western mountain glaciers, glaciers retreat in the Heihe River Basin had a higher rate. (4) By analyzing the meteorological data at six weather stations from 1960 to 2010, it is found that the mean annual temperature increased significantly and the annual precipitation also showed an increasing trend. It is concluded that glacier shrinkage is closely related with temperature rising. Besides, glacier melting caused by rising temperatures is greater than glacier mass supply by increased precipitation to some extent.

黑河流域作为中国西北地区第二大内陆流域，其景观类型完整、流域规模适中、社会生态环境问题典型，已成为寒区、旱区水文与水资源研究的热点地区。本研究结合1：5 万地形图、Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像及数字高程模型数据，运用面向对象的图像信息自动提取方法，建立冰川信息提取知识规则，对近50 年黑河流域的冰川变化进行遥感分析。结果表明：（1）20 世纪60 年代黑河流域内的967 条冰川到2010 年左右，减少为800 条冰川，减少数量明显；冰川面积由361.69 km 2 退缩为231.17 km 2 ，共减少130.51 km 2 ，退缩率为36.08%，平均每条冰川面积退缩0.14 km 2 。（2）黑河流域冰川分布及变化存在显著的区域差异性，黑河冰川退缩率比北大河大16%左右；冰川末端主要分布在4300~4400 m、4400~4500 m和4500~4600 m海拔区间内。（3）与西部其他山地冰川相比，黑河流域冰川退缩率较高。（4）根据流域内6 个气象站资料分析表明，降水增加对冰川的补给无法弥补气温上升导致的冰川消融所带来的物质损失，是黑河流域冰川普遍萎缩的关键因素。

... 据怀保娟等^[20]的研究表明小范围内降水量的增加不足以平衡升温对冰川变化的影响 ...

2013

0.0

. 2013, 30(5):919-926

Glacier change in headwaters of the Yangtze River in recent three decades

30a来长江源区冰川变化遥感监测

Xu Junli , Zhang Shiqiang , Shangguan Donghui

许君利, 张世强, 上官冬辉

根据地形图、航空相片和Landsat ETM＋数字影像,采用比值阈值法对青藏高原东北部长江源区1969/1971—1999/2002年间的冰川变化进行了研究;同时,选取覆盖同一区域（格拉丹东峰北坡）的Landsat MSS（1973年）、Landsat TM（1992年）以及2景2005/2006年获取的1B级ASTER数字遥感影像,进一步分析源区冰川的连续变化规律。结果表明：①研究区的冰川平均退缩了108.3 m,冰川面积减少了5.3%,其中,色的日峰地区的面积变化率最大,冰川面积减少12.9%;唐古拉山北坡冰川相对处于稳定状态,面积仅减少了4.3%。②格拉丹东峰北坡冰川面积变化速率不均匀,1969—1973年冰川面积变化最快,平均变化量为-1.16 km2.a-1,1973年后冰川变化有所减缓,1973—1992年和1992—2002年平均变化量均为-0.59 km2.a-1,而2002年后冰川面积变化又有所加快,平均变化量为-0.95 km2.a-1。③沱沱河、五道梁和治多3个气象站的气温和降水变化显示,暖季气温升高是导致研究区冰川退缩的主要因素,此外,气温升高的快慢可能是引起上述3个区域冰川变化差异的重要原因之一。

2013

0.0

. 2013, 28(12):2 095-2 104 DOI:doi:10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.12.007

Study on glacial advancement and retreatment in Geladandong Region of Changjiangyuan in recent 40 years

近40a长江源各拉丹冬冰川进退变化研究

Jin Shanshan , Zhang Yonghong , Wu Hongan.

金姗姗, 张永红, 吴宏安

？在近几十年气候变暖的背景下，地球上的冰川迅速消融，我国的山地冰川也发生了剧烈变化。山地冰川变化会直接或间接影响地球的生态环境及人类的生活环境，因此对山地冰川的变化进行监测至关重要。各拉丹东冰川的伸缩变化非常明显地揭示了当地乃至青藏高原和全球气候的变迁，极具科研价值。论文在总结国内外研究现状的同时结合所学知识，采用多达5个时相的陆地资源卫星以及中国冰川目录等有效资料，利用冰雪指数和监督分类方法提取冰川信息，对提取的冰川范围利用空间分析技术进行冰川变化监测。统计分析1973—1986、1986—1992、1992—2004、2004—2009年4个时间段以及1973—2009年整个36a间的冰川前进及后退信息，并计算冰川进退变化速率,对其中5条变化较大的冰川进行详细的分析统计。结果表明：从1973年至2009年近40a时间里,各拉丹冬地区既有退缩冰川也有前进冰川,其中冰川退缩面积为118.64km2,前进面积为62.66km2，冰川总体面积持续退缩。根据相关资料，近40a来“三江源”地区气温普遍升高是导致各拉丹冬冰川总体面积持续退缩的关键因素。

2006

0.0

2013

0.0

. 2013, 35(2):263-271 DOI:doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0032

Recent variation of mass balance of the Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier in the Tanggula Range and its influencing factors

近期小冬克玛底冰川物质平衡变化及其影响因素分析

Zhang Jian , He Xiaobo , Ye Baisheng

张健, 何晓波, 叶柏生

Glacier mass balance is the most direct and reliable parameter to reflect the status of a glacier. Based on the measured stakes/firn data from 2008 to 2012, the mass balance of the Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier was calculated. Combined with related meteorological data, the influence factors on the variation of mass balance were analyzed. The results showed that the glacier terminus retreated by 19.7 m from 2009 to 2012 with an average annual retreating ratio of 4.9 m, 2.3 times of that in the middle and late 1990s. In the same time the equilibrium line altitude was 5 720 m, 120 m higher than that in the early 1990s. Compared to that in 1995, the glacierized area shrunk 0.095 km 2 and the terminus altitude rose 40 m. The mass balance was -1 584 mm w.e., equivalent to 1.76 m ice reduction, during the observing period. Particularly, in 2009/2010 the mass balance reached -996 mm w.e., the maximum negative mass balance throughout the whole observation period in the glacier. The higher summer air temperature and lower albedo caused by the pollution due to maintaining the Qinghai-Tibet Highway were the main reasons for this value. It is found that both air temperature, especially the summer air temperature, and the net radiation are the controlling factors of the mass balance.

冰川物质平衡是反映冰川状况最为直接、可靠的参数.基于2008-2012年小冬克玛底冰川花杆和雪坑实测的物质平衡资料以及相关的气象资料, 获取了小冬克玛底冰川物质平衡数据并对其影响因素进行了分析.结果表明: 2009-2012年冰川末端共退缩19.7 m, 年均退缩量为4.9 m, 是1990年代中末期的2.3倍; 平衡线高度为5 720 m, 相比1990年代初的海拔5 600 m上升了120 m.与1995年相比, 冰川面积减少了0.095 km 2 , 末端海拔从5 380 m上升到5 420 m. 2008-2012年小冬克玛底冰川物质平衡总量为-1 584 mm w.e., 相当于冰川整体减薄1.76 m. 2009/2010年度物质平衡量为-996 mm w.e., 是小冬克玛底冰川有观测记录以来的最大负平衡值, 夏季平均气温偏高和青藏公路维修导致表面反照率急剧降低是主要原因.对影响冰川物质平衡的因素分析结果表明, 气温特别是夏季气温和净辐射是小冬克玛底冰川物质变化的主要影响因素.

2010

0.0

. 2010, 38(14):7 703-7 705 DOI:doi:10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2010.14.112

Remote sensing monitoring of glacier changes in Dongkemadi Region of Tanggula Mountain

唐古拉山冬克玛底地区冰川变化遥感监测

Qiao Chengjun.

谯程骏

利用1973年MSS、1992年TM、2001年ETM+、2007年TM数字遥感影像资料以及数字高程模型(DEM),结合第一次冰川编目资料,通过地理信息系统和遥感图像处理技术提取了唐古拉山冬克玛底地区不同年份的冰川分布范围.结果表明:研究区内的冰川面积1976年比1969年减小了0.84%,1992年冰川面积比1976年的减小了1.77%,2001年冰川面积比1992年减小了4.24%,2007年冰川面积比2002年减小了3.31%.结合气象资料和有限的野外资料进行分析,该地区冰川退宿趋势同气温升高趋势基本一致.1969年到2007年近40年时间里,冰川面积总共减小17.61 km2,占1969年面积的9.81%,冰储量减少5.75 km3,相当于水资源损失5.17 km3.

2002

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. 2002, 24(3):234-244 DOI:doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2002.03.003

Study on the glacier variation in Bujiagangri Section of the east Tanggula Range since the Little Ice Age

唐古拉山东段布加岗日地区小冰期以来的冰川变化研究

Wang Ninglian , Ding Liangfu.

王宁练, 丁良福

Through analyses of the new data of the glacier variation in Bujiagangri Section of the East Tanggula Range since the Little Ice Age (LIA), it was found that the area and volume of the glaciers during the maximum of the LIA, the 15th Century, were 24146 km 2 and 19 6282 km 3 respectively in the section,which indicates that the glacier area and volume have decreased by 23.7% and 15.1% respectively since then. 184 glaciers with a length of about 0.6 km have been molten away since the LIA. The absolute variation in area and volume of each glacier since the LIA increased and the relative variation decreased with size. The mean area shrinkage, the mean retreat and the mean terminus height rise of the glaciers on the south slopes were larger than that on the north slopes, which implies that the glaciers on the south slopes were more sensitive to climate change than that on the north slopes. Since the LIA, the snow line in this section has risen about 90 m, equivalent to a temperature rise of about 0.6℃.

对唐古拉山东段布加岗日地区小冰期以来的冰川变化资料进行了分析,结果表明,该地区小冰期最盛时(即15世纪)冰川总面积和总储量分别为241.46km 2 和19.6282km 3 ,目前其面积和储量分别已减少了23.7%和15.1%,并且自小冰期以来有184条长度大约为0.6km的小冰川已消失.该地区各冰川面积和储量的绝对变化量随着冰川规模的增大而增大,而其相对变化百分数却是随着冰川规模的增大而减小.不同方位冰川小冰期以来的平均面积萎缩量、平均末端退缩量和平均末端高程上升量均表明,南坡冰川变化的绝对量比北坡的大.这说明在同一气候变化背景下,该地区南坡冰川对于气候变化的响应比北坡冰川敏感.小冰期以来该地区冰川雪线上升了约90m,这大致相当于气温上升约0.6℃.