对黑河流域水—生态—经济系统研究的主要内容“流域生态—水文观测试验与流域水—生态集成管理”做了概要论述。认为流域水循环、生态水、集成水管理三大科学问题的解决必需加强该领域的研究；结合黑河流域的前期基础、研究现状和能力建设，提出了近期研究的4个领域：流域水循环、水平衡与可利用水资源；流域生态—水文过程与生态环境用水；人类活动驱动的流域水—生态系统演变；流域生态—水文野外平台与流域集成环境。对此进行了进一步的阐述，对该方面研究的方法论和技术难点亦做了简述。

China is one of the 13 countries that have water scarcity problem according to the statistical data of United Nation.In the inland river basins,which take up 1/3 of the total area in China,with naturally limited water resources and combined with unreasonable utilization,water problems have become critical issues that impact socioeconomic development and ecological protection.Heihe Rive Basin is one of the typical inland river basins in China.Taking it as an example,this article states water,soil,ecological and management problems at basin scale. In the Heihe River Basin,the total water consumption in 1998 was 34.33×10 8 m 3 ,of which 87% were used for agriculture.Meanwhile,oases in the middle reaches consume 68.1% of the total water resources.Population has increased rapidly in the past 50 years which boost the demand of water resources.Although a Water Allocation Plan has been implemented since 1997,production has been improved insignificantly due to lack of scientific approaches.In addition,water yield in the area is much less than the national average level.Therefore,so long as water yield increases through water resources effective utilization at field scale and water is rationally allocated at basin scale,economic development could be sustained and ecological security could be protected within limited water resources.Then,four components are discussed for improving water efficiency in irrigation district,which are transformation of irrigation water into soil water,biological utilization of soil water,crop water efficiency and enterprises setting as market demand.Cases such as improving water holding capacity in upper reaches of the basin,constructing water-saving oasis in the middle reaches and increasing efficiency of environmental flow in the lower reaches are discussed.In the last part of the article,it highlights social aspects of integrated basin water resources management.Social management of water resources consists of supply management and demand management;both technological benefit and allocation benefit should be considered.To construct a social management system of water resources,it involves establishment of an integrated management institute,improvement of related laws and regulations,public participance,mobilization of socioeconomic resources,implement of virtual water strategy,and form a water-saving society.Virtual water strategy has been proved as a successful case.At last,it emphasizes that there are great potential to augment integrated benefit of water,ecology and economy.

中国被联合国列为13个贫水国之一,占国土面积1/3的内陆河地区先天性的水资源不足,再叠加不合理的利用,使得水问题成为西北内陆河流域经济发展和生态保护的关键性问题.以黑河为例论述了流域尺度的水、土、生态、环境及管理问题;提出缓解流域水资源矛盾必须在流域尺度提高水效益的适应对策;讨论了绿洲灌区水资源利用率提高的4个环节,即灌溉水向土壤水转化、土壤水的生物利用、生物水的生产率以及市场需求的产业配置;展示了水源涵养、节水型绿洲建设、生态水利用率提高的部分实例;分析了水资源的社会化管理的阶段、问题与途径,强调流域虚拟水配置战略,指出提高流域水-生态-经济综合效益仍有较大潜力.

Water resource, as a natural resource, has become a vital and foundational resource of state stratagem. United Nations ranked our country in the thirteen water-poor countries. In the region of Chinese inland rivers, which occupied one thirds of China, natural resource shortage and irrational development made the water issue become a crucial restriction of economic development and environment protection of basins. This paper researched issues of water, ecology and environment in the Heihe river, a typical Chinese inland river. The potential of basin water resource has been used out under the traditional production way. To mitigate water scarcity at river-basin level it is necessary to increase efficiency per unit of water. The paper summarized some achievements of the project, a CAS knowledge innovation program, of experiment and demonstration research of basin water-ecology-economy system in the Heihe River, such as conserving water source in the upper reaches, constructing water-saving oasis in the middle reaches, raising use rate of ecological water in the lower reaches, which revealed that synthesis benefit of basin water-ecology-economy system could still be raised greatly. What still need study hard longtime were to understand earth surface process and its evolvement of inland rivers at basin level, to integrate technological system and model of eco-rehabilitation, to recognize water cycle in the whole basin, to carry out experiment of basin eco-hydrology and to establish basin science foundation of inland river.

水资源已从自然资源跃升为国家关键性、基础性战略资源，我国是联合国列为13个贫水国之一，占国土面积1/3的内陆河地区先天性的资源缺陷叠加不合理的利用使得水问题成为内陆河流域经济发展和环境保护的关键性问题。分析了中国典型内陆河——黑河的水、生态、环境问题；指出了传统生产条件下流域水资源利用已经走到尽头，缓解流域水资源矛盾必须提高单方水的效益；概要了“黑河流域水-生态-经济系统试验示范研究”在上游水源涵养区培育、中游节水型绿洲构建、下游生态水利用率提高以及生态经济学研究的部分成果，显示出提高流域水-生态-经济综合效益仍有较大潜力。在流域尺度上认识内陆河地表过程及其演变规律，集成生态技术体系和模式，重视流域尺度的水循环，实现流域尺度的生态水文学实验研究，建立内陆河流域科学基础应为长期努力的方向。

water resources of inland watershed in arid region are formed in the mountainous area, the upper reaches, utilized and consumed mostly in the oasis for agricultural irrigation in the middle reaches, and exhausted in the desert area for the natural river and terminal lake ecosystem sustaining in the lower reaches. Due to the characteristics of the hydrological cycle in the watershed, the water regime can be divided into water-yield area, waterconsume area and water-formed area in the upper, middle and lower reaches, respectively. These basic natural features determined and controlled the water regime process in the inland watershed in temporal-spatial scale. The water regime process and its driving mechanism on the varied temporal-spatial scales in the mountain area of upstream, oasis of middle stream and desert area of down stream in the Heihe river basin, which was the representative inland watershed in the arid regions in northwest China, was studied and summarized based on many scholars' works of the last decades. By comparing to the varied proxies of the ancient environmental changes, the result showed that the water regime process presented similar trend in the special period on large scales in the upstream and downstream area, while the temporal-spatial heterogeneity on small scales. To the driving mechanisms, the effects of the climate change and human activity on the water regime process in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Heihe river was in different weightiness. And the two factors presented the coupling model in different temporal scales. In the nearest future, it needs more works in the water regime process on basin scale as follow: (1) to reconstruct the water regime process in the water-yield area systematically by the ice core and tree-ring record, especially in the area in the west upper branch of the Heihe river due to its water contributions to the lower reaches before 1940′s. (2) to pay more attention to the oasis evolution in the middle reaches that was driven by the government policies, population changes, agricultural technique development and its related population capacity changes of the water resources and climate changes. (3)to understand deeply the relationships between the water resources and the natural oasis changes based on the study of the environment changes in the period of the last 500 years and recent 50 years which was the increasing and maximum periods of the human activities.

基于近几十年来诸多学者对西北干旱区典型内陆河流域——黑河流域水环境演变诸方面研究成果，综述了上游山区成水环境、中游绿洲用水环境和下游荒漠天然绿洲水成环境在不同时间尺度上的演变过程及其驱动机制。通过对各种古环境代用指标的对比研究表明：在大尺度上，流域上下游表现出阶段性的一致性水环境演变趋势；在小尺度上，则表现水环境演变的时空异质性。驱动机制方面，在空间上，流域上、中、下游水环境演变的气候变化和人类活动影响驱动作用各有侧重；在时间上，表现为不同尺度上气候变化与流域人类活动耦合作用的驱动机制。

随着生态环境问题的日益突出,区域生态环境演变研究成为生态环境研究领域的热点.黑河流域位于河西走廊农牧交错带上,是典型的生态敏感区.近年来流域生态环境严重退化,成为我国区域生态环境演变研究的重点地区之一.分别从黑河流域生态环境退化状况、生态环境演变及驱动力等方面对已有的研究成果进行总结:在气候变化与人类活动的共同作用下,黑河流域生态环境以不同的时间尺度在发展演变.近年来,人类不合理的活动导致一系列生态环境问题的出现.指出当前研究中存在的不足:主要集中于黑河流域生态环境现状研究,缺乏历史时期流域生态环境演变研究.期望为今后黑河流域及其他内陆河流域生态环境演变研究的深入提供参考. Abstract： With the coo-environmental problems have become increasingly prominent, the regional research on the evolution of ecological environment is increasingly becoming a hot spot. The Heihe River Basin located in the farming-pastoral belt in Hexi Corridor is a typical example of ecologically sensitive areas. In recent years, the ecological environment in Heihe River Basin degradated seriously. It attracts the attention of many researchers. The paper summarizes the existing research results in the evolution of ecological environment, the status of ecological environment and the driving force of the evolution of the ecological environment: with the climate change and the human activities, the ecological environment in Heihe River Basin developed and evoluted with different time scales. In recent years, human unreasonable activities lead to a number of coo-environment problems. The paper pointed out that the current research focuses on the status of ecological environment and lacks the ecological environment changes in the historical period,in order to provide a reference for the future research on the evolution of the ecological environment in Heihe River Basin and other inland river basins.

概述了中国内陆河流域面临的水问题和日益激化的用水矛盾，强调了内陆河地区支柱产业——绿洲农业应该坚持节水和生态的方向，流域集成管理是持续农业的基础。长期从事该方面研究的黑河流域是个较好借鉴，同时也提供了深入开展相关研究的基础，为此提出了以黑河流域为背景的四大研究流域：水文、生物、经济系统水循环与水资源形成演变，节水农业的生物学研究与抗旱品种繁育，农业节水新材料研发与工程节水技术集成，水资源合理配置与流域集成管理；并简述了各领域的主要方向。

Annual precipitation for the last 2,500 years was reconstructed for northeastern Qinghai from living and archaeological juniper trees. A dominant feature of the precipitation of this area is a high degree of variability in mean rainfall at annual, decadal, and centennial scales, with many wet and dry periods that are corroborated by other paleoclimatic indicators. Reconstructed values of annual precipitation vary mostly from 100 to 300 mm and thus are no different from the modern instrumental record in Dulan. However, relatively dry years with below-average precipitation occurred more frequently in the past than in the present. Periods of relatively dry years occurred during 74–25 BC , AD 51–375, 426–500, 526–575, 626–700, 1100–1225, 1251–1325, 1451–1525, 1651–1750 and 1801–1825. Periods with a relatively wet climate occurred during AD 376–425, 576–625, 951–1050, 1351–1375, 1551–1600 and the present. This variability is probably related to latitudinal positions of winter frontal storms. Another key feature of precipitation in this area is an apparently direct relationship between interannual variability in rainfall with temperature, whereby increased warming in the future might lead to increased flooding and droughts. Such increased climatic variability might then impact human societies of the area, much as the climate has done for the past 2,500 years.

The standardized(STD)chronology was established from tree-ring data of Sabina Przewalskii in the middle part of the Qilian Mountains. The correlation was analyzed between the tree-ring index and the precipitation in weather stations, near which the tree ring is sampled. The results showed that there were 31 dry spells and 30 wet spells in the past 1100 years, of which 1540～1590 A.D. was the longest dry period, lasting 6o years, and 1240～1270 A.D. and 1860～1890 A.D. were the longest wet periods, lasting 40 years respectively. There were 17 durations of dry period over 10 years, and 12 durations of wet period over 10 years. With regard to the century time scale, the 16th Century was 100 years of drought, with 80 years being lack of rain. The 13th Century, as well as the 19th Century, was 100 years of wet, with 60 years in spate. At the same time, another characteristic of precipitation variation in these mountains is more abrupt change. There have had 35 abrupt changes since 904 A.D., about 30 years on the average. There were 16 shifts from drought to wet, and 19 shifts from wet to drought. There were 9 abrupt changes in the 11th Century, 2 abrupt changes in the 15th and 16th Centuries. In the 20th Century there were 3 abrupt changes. Precipitation in these mountains frequently changed in the 11th Century, and less changed in the 15th and 16th Centuries. In the 20th Century precipitation changed frequently.

利用取自祁连山中部地区的树木年轮样本和该地区3个站点的降水资料,应用年轮气候学方法,重建了祁连山中部地区的降水量.自公元904年以来,该地区历经了31次相对干期和30次相对湿润期,其中,连续两个10a以上的干期有17次,湿润期12次,最长的干期是1540—1590年间,长达60a,最长的湿润期是1240—1270年、1860—1890年,各有40a.世纪尺度范围内,16世纪是最干的100a,有80a为少雨年;最湿润的是13世纪和19世纪,这期间有60a为多雨.自公元904年以来,降水量共发生了35次突变,16次是由旱向涝的突变,19次是由涝向旱的突变.平均约30a发生一次.11世纪是该地区降水的多变时期,15～16世纪是降水的相对稳定时段,20世纪又进入了降水的多变时期.

The moisture index(May to July) time series M( i ), since 1310 A.D., were obtained from tree-ring chronologies in Qilianshan Mountains (38°51′N, 100°08′E, 3 500m).In order to study the annual moisture indexs variability, of the another time series MV(i) was obtained from the following equation MV(i) = |M( i ) -M( i -1)|where M( i ) is the i year moisture index.

本文通过用树木年轮资料重建的祁连山地区5～7月份1310年以来的湿润指数序列，建立了一个反映该地区湿润指数年际变幅序列，对这两个序列分别进行了等级分类和干湿、强弱的时段分析，并用最大熵谱分析法对这两个序列的不同时段分别进行了周期分析。采用HK突变检验方法对这两个序列分别进行了突变分析，发现祁连山地区的湿润指数及其年际变幅存在明显的突变年份。

By combining living trees and archaeological wood, the annual mean temperatures were reconstructed based on ring-width indices of the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau for the past 2485 years. The climate variations revealed by the reconstruction indicate that there were four periods to have average tem-peratures similar to or even higher than that mean of 1970 to 2000 AD. A particularly notable rapid shift from cold to warm, we call it the “Eastern Jin Event”, occurred from 348 AD to 413 AD. Calculation re-sults show that the temperature variations over the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau are not only repre-sentative for large parts of north-central China, but also closely correspond to those of the entire Northern Hemisphere over long time scales. During the last 2485 years, the downfall of most major dynasties in China coincides with intervals of low temperature. Compared with the temperature records in other regions of China during the last 1000 years, this reconstruction from the Tibetan Plateau shows a significant warming trend after the 1950s.

A 1 835 a tree-ring chronologies has been established based on tree ring samples from Dulan region, Qinghai. Correlation function, Response function and response surface analysis were utilized to study relationship between chronology and climatic elements. The results showed that trees studied were mainly affected by climatic elements. 60% and above percent of growth variance can be accounted for by monthly mean air temperature and monthly to total precipitation, and the response to temperature is stronger than to precipitation. According to the relation of chronology and climatic elements, September～December mean temperature of Dulan region were reconstructed year by year. Using the data of reconstruction, the authors discuss the change of climate in Dulan area during last 2 ka, in particular mainly climatic events such as the Medieval warm period, the little ice age and getting warm of the last century, and make comparison between studies area and northern hemisphere.

根据青海都兰地区树木年轮样本建立了目前我国最长的年轮年表序列。通过年表与气候要素间相关函数、响应函数及响应面分析,选择了可被重建的气候因子,建立了重建方程,恢复了青海都兰地区历史时期的平均温度;并分析讨论了近2 000年来该地区的气候变化。阐述了这个地区的冷暖交替及周期循环。对一些重大气候事件,如中世纪暖期、小冰期和近一个世纪以来的升温等,逐个事件进行了剖析。并与全球温度变化进行了对照。都兰温度曲线为青藏高原东部地区提供了一个较好的气候变化信息表。

Based on hig resolution tree ring data from Dulan area of Qinghai Province, five spells have been divided: the warm period before 230’s A.D., the cold period between 240’s A.D.and 800’s A.D., the significantly warm period between 810’s A.D.and 1070’s, i.e. "Medieval Warm Period", the cold period including the "Little Ice Age" 1420’s-1870’s and the warming period since 1880’s.All the eleven coldest or warmest decades and several great abrupt changes took place before the Middle Ages, indicating that climatic system operated in great instability during the period 150’-1100’s A.D..Comparison of the tree ring data with other temperature proxy data from East China, Guliya ice core as well as the south of Qinghai Tibet Plateau shows that such great climatic events as Eastern Han warm period between the beginning of the 1st century and the previous fifty years of the third century, the cold period covering the span of Wei, Jin and the Southern and Northern Dynasties, the well known "Medieval Warm Period" as well as the "Little Ice Age" appeared in such series as East China and Dulan area.Only the first two climatic events were recorded conspicuously in Guliya ice core while the "Medieval Warm Period" and "Little Ice Age" is far weaker.Also, the well defined "Medieval Warm Period" didn’t occur in the south of Qinghai Tibet Plateau.The warming since the 20th century is the warmest in the last 200 years in Guliya ice core, the second in Dulan area and East China, but it scarcely seems pronounced in the eastern part of Qinghai Tibet Plateau.

据高分辨率的青海都兰树轮年表,将过去2000年的气候变化划分为230’S以前的高温期,240’S～800’S冷暖波动强烈的低温期,810’S～1070’S显著高温期,即中世纪暖期,1080’S～1880’S的低温期,其中包括1420’S～1870’S的小冰期,以及1890’S后的升温期。统计发现11次极端高温或低温事件,以及几次大的突变事件全部出现于中世纪之前,指示150’S～1100’S期间气候运行的高度不稳定性。和中国东部、古里雅冰芯和青藏高原南部温度代用资料比较后发现,公元初至3世纪前期的东汉暖期,3世纪后期至7世纪初的魏晋南北朝冷期(期间约380’S～460’S暖),中世纪暖期以及小冰期等几次重大的气候事件在中国东部、都兰和青藏高原南部序列中均存在。古里雅冰芯仅记录了前两次重要事件,中世纪暖期以及小冰期在该序列中表现微弱。20世纪的升温在古里雅冰芯最显著,都兰、中国东部次之,而高原南部似乎不明显。

本文讨论了敦德冰帽中小冰期以来的气候变化,在敦德冰帽记录中,自公元1400年以来,有3次冷期、3次暖期,最冷是在17世纪,但敦德冰帽记录与上海冬温记录的比较发现,中国东西部气候变化又有时间的差异性,总的趋势是西部的变暖、变冷过程早于东部,在敦德冰帽中,目前已处于异常温暖期,而在上海冬温记录中,并没有敦德冰帽记录那么明显,除了中国东西部气候变化可能有时间差异这一原因外,另一可能原因是CO_2温室效应所产生的增温过程,在地处中国西部中纬内陆地区的敦德冰帽地区可能已有所反映。

过去1000 a气候变化历史是评价当今气候变暖的重要背景资料. 作为全球变化的敏感地区, 青藏高原过去千年高分辨率气候变化重建还很少. 对采集于青海省乌兰地区祁连圆柏林上限的树轮样本进行了气候响应分析, 揭示了上限祁连圆柏生长主要受温度变化限制, 即与上年9, 11月和当年2, 7月的平均温度相关显著( P

In this paper, the relationship between tree-ring of Picea Crassifolia in the middle section of the Qilian Mountains and runoff of the Heihe River is studied. Tree-ring width correlates most significantly to March to June runoff.Using well-replicated tree-ring data from Picea crassifolia in the Qilian Mountains, March to June runoff of the Heihe River has been reconstructed for the period from 1770 to 1995.Cross-verification testing of the reconstruction passes significance tests. Sign tests of the reconstructed series and the observed series are made, and product mean and error reduction are calculated, which prove that the reconstruction is reliable.The reconstructed March to June runoff shows that the Heihe River has experienced obvious high and low water periods, mainly in a high water state, since 1770. Now, it is in a low water period and seems to be lower and lower. Moreover, the low water periods are well corresponding to the recorded drought disasters periods. Periods of 24 and 3 a have been seen in the reconstructed runoff series since 1770.

利用祁连山中段树木年轮资料,重建了黑河230a来春季至夏初(3～6月)的径流变化,发现枯水年与历史记载的相对干旱时期比较吻合,证明了重建结果的可靠性.230a来黑河3～6月径流的变化振幅在各时段强弱不同:19世纪初之前丰枯变化振幅强,19世纪中后期至20世纪初变化幅度减弱,20世纪20年代以来,丰枯变化幅度又趋于增强.在过去的230a,黑河3～6月径流以丰水为主,目前正处于相对枯水阶段.奇异谱分析表明,230a来3～6月径流具有明显的24a和3a周期.

According to analysis of the evolution of the river courses, this paper presented the environment changes in the lower reaches of Heihe River approximately. As the common scenes in arid areas in Northwestern China, the environment changes caused by the processes of water system shrinking with tracing to the sources mainly because of the tectonic movement and climate changes in the geologic historical times. The processes were accelerated by the unreasonable development of water and land resources during recent 2,000 years. Badain Jaran Desert were the lower reaches of Heihe River. The Ejina Delta would be Ejina Desert if the Ejina Oasis disappeared as the processes of Badan Jaran Desert formation. In the early Pleistocene, there were two water systems in Ejina Region with the warm and humid climate relatively. Afterwards, the two water systems combined one system with the drought climate. In the late Pleistocene, modern water system was formed as the climate was much more drought. The Juyan Lakes were not the terminal lakes of Heihe River but were river channel lakes in the geological period. They pxperienced processes of reducing and disappearing as the water system shrinking of Heihe River courses, therefore, were terminal lakes in modern times with an ephemeral period obviously.

通过对水系变迁的分析，勾画了黑河下游额济纳地区环境变化的大体框架。黑河下游额济纳地区的环境变迁，演绎了西北干旱地区普遍存在的水系溯源退缩过程。在地质历史时期，这种溯源退缩主要原因是地质运动和气候变化，而近代、现代人类不合理的水土资源开发活动加速了河流水系的溯源退缩，并在一定程度上超过了自然因素的作用。巴丹吉林沙漠曾经是黑河下游的冲积湖积平原。那么如果绿洲消失，额济纳三角洲就有可能再现巴丹吉林沙漠的形成过程，形成新的"额济纳沙漠"。在第四纪早期，额济纳盆地存在两个水流系统，且气候环境较为温暖潮湿；随后两个水流系统逐渐合并，区域气候亦有变干变暖的趋势；至第四纪晚期，气候更加干旱，现代水文网定型。东西居延海不是黑河流域的终端湖，在地质历史上属于黑河流域下游的河道湖。随着黑河水系不断地溯源萎缩，东西居延海及居延泽也存在着一个逐步缩小的过程，并在近现代演变为尾闾湖。显然，东西居延海作为尾闾湖只是一个很短暂的时期。

通过对黑河尾闾湖泊附近14个表土样品的孢粉分析及野外实地现代植物调查,了解了在表土花粉中当地植被、区域植被和山上植被所占的含量及风和流水作用对孢粉种类的影响,并分析了不同沉积环境、孢粉来源和孢粉组合代表的环境指示意义.我们只有了解这些表土花粉的规律后,才能够准确恢复居延海湖心剖面孢粉所反映的植被、气候演化过程.

Lakes in arid zone are sensitive to climatic changes. The lacustrine sediment sequence in Sogo Nur has well and truly recorded climatic events such as the Sui-Tang Dynasty Warm Period, the Song-Liao Dynasty Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the 20th Century Warm Period. Commonly, the climate in warm Periods was relatively humid, accordingly the lake area extended and water level rose, and vice versa. Apart from climatic change, human activity is also an important factor of influencing lake vicissitude, and they played the dominant role alternatively during different periods; the factor of climatic change predominated in historical period, while since the beginning of the 20th century the utilization of water resources by human has became decisive.

Lakes in arid zone are sensitive to climatic changes. The lacustrine sediment sequence in Sogo Nur has well and truly recorded climatic events such as the Sui-Tang Dynasty Warm Period, the Song-Liao Dynasty Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the 20th Century Warm Period. Commonly, the climate in warm Periods was relatively humid, accordingly the lake area extended and water level rose, and vice versa. Apart from climatic change, human activity is also an important factor of influencing lake vicissitude, and they played the dominant role alternatively during different periods; the factor of climatic change predominated in historical period, while since the beginning of the 20th century the utilization of water resources by human has became decisive.

通过对黑河尾闾东居延海湖相沉积物易溶盐类K+、Na+、Ca2+、Mg2+、SO2-4、CO2-3、HCO-3、Cl-八大离子含量和其他相关指标的分析,依据它们在地层中的变化特征,结合地层14C年代测定结果,把东居延海湖泊变化划分为:隋唐湖泊面积较大时期、宋辽湖泊缩小时期、中世纪暖期湖泊扩张时期、小冰期湖泊缩小时期及20世纪湖泊干涸期等几个阶段.考虑近1 500 a来该流域气候变化和人类活动对湖泊的影响,得出了以下几个结论:近1 500 a来,东居延海湖区气候以干旱为主,湖泊逐渐萎缩;在干旱背景下存在气候波动,并与全球变化具有一致性;湖泊的盛衰演变受到气候变化和人类活动的双重影响,前期以自然变化为主,明清以来特别是清代以后,人类活动的影响加剧,成为主控因子.

The Juyan Lake, located in the north of Ejin Banner of Alxa League in Inner Mongolia, is a terminal lake of the Heihe River. The water area of the lake has gradually shrunk from 800 km 2 and even dried up in the past 3 000 years. The environment around the lake has also changed enormously. What is the reason bringing about such enormous changes? In this paper the lake evolution and climate changes are studied by analyzing the granularity and chemical elements of the lacustrine sediments in the Juyan Lake. The following conclusions are drawn: The lake evolution was controlled mainly by climate changes before Ming and Qing Dynasties, when the warm-humid climate resulted in an increase of inflow to the lake, which made the lake area expand and the chemical weathering strengthen; whereas the cold-arid climate resulted in a decrease of inflow to lake, which corresponded to lake water level drop, lake area shrank and chemical weathering weaken. After Ming and Qing Dynasties, especially in the recent 40 years, the anthropogenic factor predominated the lake evolution process. The Heihe River continuously decreases its inflow to the lake, because of large-scale land development, finally the Juyan Lake dried up due to zero inflow.

居延海是黑河的终端湖, 在最近3 000 a来已由原来面积 800 km2逐渐萎缩而最终干涸, 同时其周边环境也发生了巨大的变化.东居延海(索果诺尔)湖相沉积的粒度和元素资料研究结果表明: 明清以前湖泊的变化主要受气候变化的影响, 温暖时期, 气候偏湿, 入湖水量增多, 湖泊面积扩大, 流域化学风化作用增强; 寒冷时期, 气候偏干, 入湖水量减小, 湖泊萎缩, 流域化学风化作用减弱.明清之后特别是近40 a来, 由于黑河上中游地区大规模的土地开发及水资源利用, 入湖水量不断减小, 甚至河流断流, 最终导致了目前居延海的干涸.

Base on the analysis of organic element，carbonate contents and the stable carbon and oxygen isotopes of the Xiaohushan section in Ejina Basin，western Inner Mongolia, China，the source of organic matters in the sediment and the formation mechanisms of the inorganic carbonate were discussed. To the Xiaohushan section in Ejina Basin，it was found that when the TOC content is higher than 0.15％ and that of TN is higher than 0.015％，the sediments are lacustrine deposits，otherwise are eolian(sandy)accumulations. The results show that the organic matters in the sediments was mainly composed of algae and vascular plants formed during the paleo￣lake evolution, and the TOC/TN ratio ranges from 9.91～10.16. When the TOC/TN ratios are stable，both TOC and TN content variations are closely related with temperature and precipitation changes. Therefore，the TOC in the studied section is an effective proxy of the climate. The content of authigenic carbonate was controlled by the water temperature and biomass and the stable carbon isotope of the authigenic carbonate was a proxy of the effective humidity in the study area. It could be deduced that the climate recorded in the section was mainly fluctuated between warmhumid and colddry.According to the TOC，CaCO 3 contents，δ 13 C and grain size variations of the sediments，and the lithofacies of the studied section，the climate change and paleolake evolution history of the studied section can be divided into six stages：  Before 31.73  14 C kaB.P.(>949cm)，it was a cold and dry. Between 38.15  14 C kaB.P. and 31.73 14 C kaB.P.(949～780cm)，the climate in the study area was warmer and wetter，and the lake level was high. From 31.73 14 C kaB.P. to 22.79  14 C kaB.P.(780～482cm)，the climate was still warm and wet and the paleolake level was high，but with strong fluctuations and decreases of the lake level. The climate was deteriorated and the water level decreased obviously between 22.79 14 C kaB.P. and 17.37 14 C kaB.P.(482～304cm). From 17.37 14 C kaB.P. to 14.00 14 C kaB.P.(304～178cm)，the effective humidity of the study area reduced strongly and the paleo￣lake retreated beyond the site of the study section，mobile sands were prevailing during the period which implied a cold and dry climate. From 14 14 C kaB.P. to 4  14 C kaB.P.(178～0cm)，the paleolake appeared and the lake level rised again but did not reach the height as before. The environment deteriorated abruptly around 4 14 C kaB.P. and since then，the climate changed to cold and dry till the paleolake disappeared.

通过对内蒙古西部额济纳古湖小狐山剖面沉积物中总有机碳（TOC）、总氮（TN）和碳酸盐（CaCO 3 ）含量的测定，分析了沉积物中有机碳来源和无机碳酸盐成因，结果表明在额济纳古湖相沉积物中TOC与TN含量呈同步变化规律TOC/TN(9.91～10.16)较稳定，其有机质为湖泊自生藻类和外源维管束植物共同提供。沉积物中有机质含量受温度、降雨量变化控制，当气候暖湿时，沉积物中有机碳含量高，气候冷干则有机碳含量低，因此，有机碳含量是所研究剖面气候温湿与干旱（冷）的有效环境指标。湖泊自生碳酸盐含量则由湖区有效湿度和生物量的共同控制，其稳定碳同位素指示有效湿度的大小。粒度，特别是小于2μm组分含量与水动力和搬运介质相关，其组分含量大于5％时为湖相沉积且随其含量增加指示水深加大。根据沉积物中有机碳、碳酸盐、无机碳同位素和粒度，并结合剖面岩相特征，探讨了研究区该时段（按剖面深度划分）气候变化和湖泊演化历史：  ？～38.15 14 C kaB.P.(1039～949cm)湖区气候为冷干环境特征，风沙盛行；   38.15～31.73 14 C  kaB.P.(949～780cm)气候环境逐步改善，降水量增加，湖泊开始发育并到达湖泊高水位阶段；   31.73～22.79  14 C  kaB.P.(780～482cm)湖泊水位有所下降，气候有明显的波动，但仍维持在较高的水位上，湖区环境仍为暖湿气候；   22.79～17.37 14 C  kaB.P.(482～304cm)气候开始变冷变干，湖区有效适度持续减小，湖泊退缩；   17.37～14.00 14 C kaB.P.(304～178cm)湖泊退出研究点，区域有效湿度小，风沙盛行，存在短暂气候事件，造成暂时性流水；   14～4  14 C kaB.P.(178～0cm)湖泊开始再度扩张、水位上升，湖水变淡，到该阶段的后期气候又一次发生转变，湖区再度成为干旱环境，有效湿度减小，湖泊开始萎缩、直至消失。

土地利用/土地覆盖变化作为国际上全球变化研究的前沿与热点课题,是所有可持续发展相关问题的核心.区域案例研究是土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究的重要方法.本文以位于西北内陆干旱地区的黑河流域为例,阐明该流域土地利用/土地覆盖变化的过程,揭示其土地利用/土地覆盖变化的动力机制,分析土地利用/土地覆盖变化对该流域自然环境与社会经济的影响,从而提出该流域土地可持续利用对策.

清代在西北地区实施农业开发的过程中,主要采取移民实边、兴修水利、调拨生产工具、推广农业生产技术和农作物优良品种等措施,解决西北开发过程中所需要的人力和物力资源.清代西北地区的农业开发,不仅解决了当地驻军和居民的粮食供给问题,而且对传统的经济结构产生了重要的影响,确立了农业经济在西北地区社会经济生活中的主导地位.

黑河是我国的第二大内陆河.从生态经济学的角度把黑河流域生态经济系统的演化分为五个阶段,分述了各阶段的特点.根据黑河流域生态经济系统的演化过程得到四点启示.最后根据黑河流域演化特点与所得启示提出了黑河流域实现可持续发展的两点建议:建立环境经济综合账户,进行生态经济综合研究;建立流域生态经济综合集成管理模式.

The origin and form of a city is an extremely complicated and very long process. It is a course that all civilization factors accumulate and condense, in a manner from quantitative change to qualitative change. The cities in the Heihe River basin have experienced five developing stages roughly: sprout-period before the Qin Dynasty, foundation period in the Western Han and the Eastern Han, second peak period from the Sui Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty, decline period during the Three Kingdoms and the Sixteen Kingdoms, decline period after the Song Dynasty. In this process, the emigration and land-exploitation, developing water conservancy, growth and decay of agriculture-herd industry, population migration and assembling, changes of geopolitics and natural environment are the main driving force of urban development and growth. There are two negative effects interlocking each other: Han ethnic expand westward-unified country-steady geopolitics relation-emigration and land-exploitation-developing water conservancy-prosperous agriculture-warm and wet climate-urban development; ethnic minority enters eastward-separatist regimes-turbulent geopolitics environment-herding industry extends-dry and cold climate-desertification expanding-urban discarded. Its essence is fighting for the living space of the advantage, under a specific geographical environment and pattern of ethnic allocation.

城市的起源与形成是一个极其复杂而漫长的过程,是诸文明要素积累凝聚、从量变到质变的过程.黑河流域的城市大致经历了五个发展阶段:秦汉以前的城市萌芽,两汉时期的奠基期,十六国时期、隋唐时期的第二高峰期,宋以后的衰落期,直到明清以后城市再度复苏.在这一变化过程中,移民屯垦、兴修水利、农牧业的消长与进退、人口迁移与聚集、地缘政治和自然环境的变化是城镇发育与成长的主要驱动力.其中,又蕴含了两个相互交错的正负效应:汉民族的西扩—统一的国家—稳定的地缘政治关系—移民屯垦—兴修水利—农业繁荣—气候暖湿—城镇发展;少数民族东进—地方割据—复杂动荡的地缘政治环境—牧业扩张—气候干冷—沙漠化扩大—城镇衰退.其实质是在特定的地理环境和民族分布格局下,对优势生存空间的争夺.

 A long history of agricultural development and the relative abundance of historical documents in the Heihe River Basin provide favorable conditions for the reconstruction of cultivated land distribution pattern changes in historical periods. According to the characteristics of land development and utilization in the Heihe River Basin in the historical period, the relationship between dominant factors which includes natural elements such as altitude, slope, and cultural elements like population distribution and cultivated land distribution is analyzed deeply. Then the factors which have a significant impact on farmland distribution and can be relatively easy to quantify are selected. Based on these factors, a set of historical farmland data grid model is established and the historical cultivated land distribution trends in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin before the Ming Dynasty is simulated. Using the methods of per capita cropland area and grain yield, total cropland area in the Heihe River Basin before the Ming Dynasty is estimated. Based on the grid model and combined with correcting and positioning function of ancient ruins as well as image recognition, space distribution reconstruction of cultivated land in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin before the Ming Dynasty is completed.

黑河流域悠久的农业开发史和历史文献为研究历史时期耕地空间分布格局变化提供了有利条件。根据黑河流域历史时期土地开发利用的特点，深入分析了海拔、坡度、土壤、人口等自然及人文主导因子与耕地分布的关系，遴选出对耕地分布具有明显作用且易量化的影响因子，并以此为依据设计了一套历史耕地数据网格化模型，模拟了黑河流域历史时期耕地分布趋势。采用人均耕地面积与粮食单产2种途径，估算了明代以前黑河中游耕地面积总量。基于该模型并结合古遗址、遥感影像判别的结果，重建了黑河流域中游地区明代以前耕地的空间分布。

With the expansion of population number and the development of large-scale agricultural cultivation in the Ming Dynasty, Qing Dynasty and Republic of China in the middle reaches of the Heihe River, human activity had a profound impact on environment. Due to the limited historical records, it's difficult to analyze human activity intensity quantitatively. Cultivated land area, population number, channel length, grain yield and other indicators were selected as evaluation parameters. Based on the data which were collected and estimated from history documents, human activity intensity in the middle reaches of the Heihe River in the period of early and late Ming Dynasty, early and late Qing Dynasty and Republic of China were quantitatively analyzed by using 4 different objective weighting methods which include variation coefficient method, entropy method, standard deviation method and CRITIC method. Some conclusions were as follows: the absolute index of human activity intensity in five study periods was 0.46, 0.47, 1.13, 1.55 and 1.39, respectively, indicating that human activity intensity in Ming and Qing Dynasty had increased continuously and slightly weakened in Republic of China. All the results obtained by four methods had the same sort order, suggesting that the results had good consistency.

黑河中游在明、清及民国时期经历了人口规模膨胀和大规模农业垦殖发展过程，人类活动对地理环境产生了极其深刻的影响。由于历史记载数据有限，定量分析人类活动强度难度较大。本文选取耕地面积、人口数量、灌渠长度、粮食单产等参数为评价指标，基于历史文献记载及估算数据，采用变异系数法、熵值法、标准离差法、CRITIC法等4种客观权重法定量分析了黑河中游明代前期、明代后期、清代前期、清代后期及民国时期的人类活动强度，获得以下主要结论：5个研究时期人类活动强度绝对指数分别为0.46、0.47、1.13、1.55及1.39，表明明、清时期人类活动强度持续增加，民国时期略有减弱。各方法评估结果综合排序相同，表明研究结果具有较好一致性。

黑河流域是西北干旱区一条典型的内陆河流域,对黑河流域水资源问题进行剖析,可了解西北干旱区的水资源问题.黑河流域水资源问题无论在自然特性,及其人类活动的开发利用上都非常相似.今天人类共同面临水资源与生态环境危机问题,所以黑河流域水土资源开发利用的历史和由此导致的现实问题具有显著的代表性.

从历史的角度探讨了黑河中游水资源开发利用与管理的演变过程. 辨别了历史上不同时期黑河中游水资源管理的状况，分析了兴衰的原由，探讨了水资源管理演变的趋势、特征以及存在的问题，总结了历史上可资借鉴的经验，说明资源管理问题与社会问题和其他问题相互之间是不断转化的，对策措施集合也是不断调整的. 简要论述了部分历史经验在建立水资源利用公平体系、确保生态用水、提高政府对水资源的调控能力、限制地下水资源开采中的借鉴意义.

Water is the basic natural resource as well as a strategic economic resource，it is the constituent and decisive factor of the ecological environment，the continuing exploitation and utilization is the key to support a healthy ecosystem and regional continued advance，and the core of these is the scientific management of water resource. The shortage of water resource caused by the unreasonable exploitation and utilization became the main problem which handicaps the economic development of the inland river drainage basin and the protection of ecological environment. Researching and consummating the managing system and its relevant policies is the main mission and orientation of the scientific research of the water resource management. The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in the northwest arid area，a especially typical desert oasis area，water resource is very important to the development of the region. The existed research about the item primarily focused on snow and ice survey and its melting runoff，characteristics on the changes of flows from the mountainous watershed and their response to climate change，the simulation and prediction of stream in the upper reaches；status of water resources utilization and countermeasures in the middle and lower reaches；isotopes，water resources carrying capacity，theoretical methods and measures for water resources management. This paper attempts to systematically demonstrate the change of the water resource management organizations and its policies of Heihe River Basin in historical periods by investigating a large number of historical documents and the Historical Atlas. It indicates the three problems which exist in this aspect：（1）the lack and faultiness of water resource laws and rules；（2）lacking foresight in constituting the management rules；（3）to be short of relevant rules in protection of environment. This article also analyzed the changing reasons of water resource management by the increasing of population quantity，the strengthening of land development，the sharp conflicts of water dissension total three ways. In 2 A.D. the population of Heihe River Basin was 88 700 people，the cultivated area was 4.03×10 4 hm 2 ，the land development intensity was 0.28%，water resources utilization rate was 10.1%. In Qing Dynasty，the population of Heihe River Basin was 529 100 people（in 1820），the cultivated area was 11.12×10 4 hm 2 ，the land development intensity was 0.78%，water resources utilization rate was 28.2%. In 1950，the cultivated area was 22.11×10 4 hm 2 ，the land development intensity was 1.55%，water resources utilization rate was 55.5%. Based on the above situation，  the conclusion was drawn about developing the water culture and innovating the water sharing system in whole river basin，brought forward the following goals：（1） from water monopolization by middle reaches to water sharing with the lower reaches. （2）from economical water sharing to economy- ecology water sharing. （3） changing the emphasis of water resource development from hydraulic engineering constructions to the water resource continuing exploitation and utilization. （4） From pursuing the economy development only to giving attention to the harmony of people and nature also. And building the scientific management system of water resource development by strengthening the management of  watershed scale and improving the management tools of water rights trading market.

水资源是基础性的自然资源和战略性的经济资源，是生态环境的组成要素和控制性因素。水资源的可持续开发和利用是维持生态系统健康和区域可持续发展的关键，而水资源可持续开发利用的关键是水资源的科学管理。水资源的不合理开发利用使水资源短缺问题成为限制内陆河流域经济发展和生态环境保护的主要瓶颈问题。研究和完善水资源管理制度和相关的管理机制，是水资源管理科学研究的主要内容和前沿方向。对西北地区黑河流域历史时期的水管理机构和管理制度进行系统梳理，总结流域水资源管理制度存在的问题，以便从中汲取经验教训，转变水资源管理理念，完善水资源管理制度，实现水资源的可持续开发利用。

中国西部地区土地荒漠化问题相当严重.采用多学科交叉的方法,从宏观、中观、微观诸方面考察了西部地区土地荒漠化的演变过程及其时空特征.研究结果表明:西部土地荒漠化问题是在漫长的历史岁月中逐渐形成的,并且呈现出逐渐加剧的态势;导致土地荒漠化的因素包括自然和社会两个方面,近五千年来人为因素的影响力往往超过了自然因素.人类不良的生产生活方式会大大加速土地荒漠化的进程,而科学的土地开发及合理的环保措施则能对土地荒漠化起到扼制、延缓、逆转的作用.

黑河是仅次于塔里木河的全国第二大内陆河,流经青海、甘肃、内蒙古三省区,全长821公里.由于上游少水、中游争水、下游断水,加上其周围生态环境恶化,使得河西走廊和额济纳旗沙尘暴频繁发生,成为我国四大沙尘暴源区之一.文章在实地调研的基础上,分析了黑河流域沙尘暴形成的原因,提出了相应的治理对策.

根据古城废弃、湖泊退缩、频降尘期等发生时代的相对一致性,确定历史时期河西走廊沙漠化过程存在3次大发展时期,即南北朝、唐末五代和明清两朝,它们均对应近2 ka来的气候干冷阶段.清代中期河西走廊人口密度突破了干旱地带人口压力的"临界指标",水资源利用率超过40%,是晚近沙漠化土地迅速扩大的主要原因.

根据历史和现代研究资料,系统分析了影响黑河流域绿洲演变的自然和人文因素.自然因素包括气候、地质地貌、风沙活动及自然灾害等方面,是绿洲演变的大背景.人文因素包括战争、民族习惯与政府政策导向,交通、政治、经济地位,人口压力及资源需求的增长.人文因素是十分错综复杂的,自人类社会形成以来就愈来愈强烈,而且加剧自然因素的作用程度与范围,甚至在一定时空条件下完全可以掩盖自然因素对绿洲的作用.基于上述认识,认为对于整个流域来讲,上、下游应将水源涵养和生态保护作为建设重点,中游作为经济建设的重点区域,上、中、下游优势互补、共同发展,达到整个流域资源、环境、经济的可持续发展.

通过对额济纳地区历史时期的农牧业更替以及绿洲环境演变过程的认识,综合其水系变迁、绿洲迁移、荒漠化过程和人类活动中心的转移等方面,将该地区人地关系演进分为以下四个阶段:汉代以前的生态自然平衡阶段,人地自然和谐;两汉至元代的生态失衡阶段,人地矛盾加剧;明清生态自然恢复阶段,人地矛盾缓和;近代生态环境恶化阶段,人地矛盾尖锐.随科技水平提高,人类对自然规律认识程度增强,必将有利于促进人地矛盾的缓解,最终达到人地协调发展的状态.

通过探讨流域及绿洲发育及其发展演变的水资源动态变化的特征,阐明它们之间的独特关系,并以此来揭示绿洲系统发育的河流流域地带性问题及特征.研究表明,本区水资源动态变化主要在径流形成、利用和消失三个区域内具有依次性体现的特征.其中占总流域面积10%左右的河川径流形成区,对全流域的水资源动态变化具有先决性作用,并在各个区域水动态变化体现上又受到系统对水的吞吐、留存、蒸散和转化能力大小的影响.因此,河流流域是地域分异现象中通过水流作用所体现出的水平地带性与垂直地带性的一种交汇,同时也是地带性与非地带性系统分异的主要区域.作为河流流域地带发育的绿洲系统,其发展演变规律和特征是相当独特的,如开放性、动态性、脆弱性以及资源有限性等.其中有限的水土资源及其动态变化是制约区域内各层次流域发展及绿洲系统发育的关键,并在不同区段上存在着显著差异性,且彼此间常体现出互为依存、互为消长的依次性制约关系.如水资源量的多寡、质的优劣和时空动态变化及分布、以及人为作用等决定着绿洲类型体现和规模分布、发育层次及阶段或发展演变过程及趋势、和社会经济价值体现等.

通过查阅历史文献和实地考察，对历史时期西北地区农业开发及对生态环境所造成的影响进行了探讨。并以新疆和河西走廊为例，重点分析了历史时期由于对楼兰、河西走廊等区域的不合理开垦、利用以及对森林的滥伐等，造成对当地河流移徙、土地沙化等严重后果。为了吸取这一历史教训，从生态环境的角度提出了在当今西北大开发中，应遵循自然规律，宜农则农，宜牧则牧，宜林则林，有效地保护生态环境。

在总结前人研究成果的基础上,系统论述了黑河流域近百年来的水环境变化.流域水环境包括流域水系、水资源时空分布以及水资源质量等方面.近百年来,由于人类活动强度的增加,河流湖泊水系逐渐从自然水系、半自然水系演化为人工水系,地表径流基本上为人类所控制,使水资源利用主要集中在中游和下游上段地区,下游河道年平均断流天数从50年代的37.6d上升至90年代的89.9d,尾闾湖西居延海于1960年干涸,东居延海处于干涸和充水交替状态.水资源在年际和年内的分配都发生了极大变化.由于工农业发展、水资源利用方式、重复利用率提高以及人工合成物质的使用和排放等多种因素,流域水质持续恶化.由于人类活动的特点,在整个环境演变过程中定量分析人类活动的影响还没有适宜的理论和方法.

利用地方史志、历史地理、树木年轮和近代器测记录相关的黑河流域历史时期人口变动、水土资源开发利用、下游湖泊变化、流域水资源和气候变化等资料，通过对比上游出山水资源量、中游人类活动水资源利用量和下游湖泊面积变化，在千-百年时间尺度上对流域水资源平衡进行了估算，并分析了历史时期各阶段下游湖泊水环境和天然绿洲演变过程和驱动机制。研究结果表明：在黑河流域，气候变化条件下的上游山区水资源总量和中游走廊平原区绿洲人类活动用水后下泄的水资源量，决定了下游水环境演变过程;在两千年来显现出不同历史阶段的流域水资源平衡模式和下游水环境演变特征，以及气候变化和人类活动在不同历史时期的耦合驱动机制。

生态环境演变的基本规律是:山前地带引水增加,人工绿洲扩大,生态环境改善,但盐渍化发展;河流中下游水量减少,古代绿洲衰亡,荒漠化扩大,生态环境恶化.景观格局的变化规律是:"两扩大,四缩小",即在沙漠与绿洲同时扩大的情况下,而处于两者之间的自然水域、林地、草地和野生动物种群减少.引起生态环境变化的驱动力,主要是社会经济发展改变了水资源的地域分配,同时与气候波动、河流改道、风沙活跃等自然因素有关.