城市空间扩展非协调性识别的基础理论与实证分析

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孙平军, 修春亮, 吕飞. 城市空间扩展非协调性识别的基础理论与实证分析. 30(2): 247-258
Sun Pingjun, Xiu Chunliang, Lü Fei. Basic Theory and Empirical Analysis on Non-coordination Identification of Urban Spatial Expansion. Advances in Earth Science, 30(2): 247-258 复制到剪切板

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城市空间扩展非协调性识别的基础理论与实证分析

孙平军¹, 修春亮², 吕飞¹

1.哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院,哈尔滨黑龙江 150001

2.东北师范大学地理科学学院,长春吉林 130024

*通讯作者：修春亮（1964-）,男,吉林舒宁人,教授,主要从事城市与区域规划、经济地理方面的研究. E-mail: xiucl@nenu.edu.cn

作者简介：孙平军(1981-),男,湖南隆回人,讲师,主要从事城市与区域规划、区域经济开发研究. E-mail: sunpj031@163.com

基金:国家自然科学基金项目“流空间视角的哈大巨型城市走廊核心城市空间扩展与区域关联”(编号：41071109)资助

摘要

针对当前国内外现有城市空间扩展研究因数据和方法的制约而相对缺乏合理性评价以及伴随快速城镇化进程推进的我国城市空间扩展引发了一系列区域可持续发展问题的现实背景,试图基于逆向思维和问题诊断视角构建一座由非协调病理诊断通向协调发展道路的桥梁,从非协调性视角构建城市空间扩展合理性评价指标体系;内涵上具体表征为城市建设用地总量控制非协调性、城市建设用地与农用地、生态用地配比结构非协调性以及城市建设用地空间配置非协调性3个层面。并在此基础上,以2008年中国246个地级市为样本单元展开实证分析。期间从分区（经济区划）、分类（行政等级、道路交通、城市规模、城市属性、气候条件、地形条件等）的思维对其内在规律性进行了揭示、归纳与汇总。结果表明该识别体系较为合理,揭示结果与现实情况相吻合,可以作为认知城市空间扩展,缓解人多地少的基本国情和人地矛盾冲突,促进土地资源的集约高效、合理利用和区际公平可持续发展的理论依据。

关键词: 城市空间扩展非协调性; 识别体系; 总量控制; 用地配比结构; 空间配置效率

中图分类号:P96 文献标志码:A 文章编号:1001-8166(2015)02-0247-12

Basic Theory and Empirical Analysis on Non-coordination Identification of Urban Spatial Expansion

Sun Pingjun¹, Xiu Chunliang², Lü Fei¹

1. School of Architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China

2. School of Geography Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China

Abstract

Based on the backgrounds of the lack of rational evaluation due to the constraint of data and methods, and of a series problems of regional sustainable development caused by urban expansion of rapid urbanization in current research of urban expansion at home and abroad, this paper attempted to build a bridge from the pathology of non-coordinated development to coordinated development from the perspective of reverse thinking and problem diagnosis, and then constructed a reasonable evaluation index system of urban space from the perspective of non-coordination. Specific characterization was the three levels, i.e. non-coordination of the total control of urban construction land, non-coordination of ratio nonconforming structure in urban construction land and agricultural land, ecological land, as well as the non-coordination of space allocation in established urban construction land. On the basis of these, an empirical analysis in 246 prefecture-level cities of China in 2008 was made. By partitioning (economic division) and classification (administrative level, road transport, urban scale, urban properties, weather conditions, terrain conditions, etc.), its inherent regularity was revealed, summarized and aggregated. Results showed that the identification system was reasonable and the results coincided with reality, which could serve as the theoretical basis for the basic national conditions where there are conflicts between manland relationships, for the promotion of intensive, efficient and rational use of land resources and for sustainable development among inter-districts.

Keyword: Non-coordination of urban spatial expansion; Identification system; Total control; Ratio of land use structure; Space allocation efficiency.

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1 引言

城市空间扩展指的是城市空间在社会经济发展、城镇化进程推进及城市居民为满足自身多层次生理心理需求的驱动下所引发的一个地域空间表达过程— — 规模上表现出建成区地域空间范围的扩大, 由内往外不断向农村地域推进, 由地面不断向空间、地下伸展, 以及城市数量的增加, 内涵上呈现出城市内在结构的调整（城市规模、密度和形态的更新演替）, 同时也是一个人地关系、区际关系（人人关系）相互作用的过程（抑或结果）— — 时刻与周边区域进行物质（人流、物流、信息流、资金流和技术流等）、能量和熵的交换转化和传递, 引发空间的相互作用^{[1, 2]}。期间无疑也带来了一系列的区域可持续发展问题, 如生态环境恶化、交通拥挤、城市低效无序蔓延且不断挤占吞嗤周边高产农田和生态用地、区域发展不平衡等^{[3, 4]}。深为社会各界人士的广为关注。

其中国外城市空间扩展研究理论相对丰富, 大体经历了1898年以霍华德为代表的田园城市分散主义思想→ 1930年以柯布西耶为代表的光明城集中主义思想→ 20世纪80年代后期以新城市主义、精明增长、紧凑城市等为代表的可持续发展思想的演变; 研究内容比较全面系统：研究尺度实现了由单个城市尺度向区域城市乃至全球城市尺度的转变; 研究重点经历了多学科、分散、单中心城市空间扩展结构、机制机理的研究, 到多学科交叉融合、借鉴的区域城市、全球城市体系组织、城市与区域互动关联的扩展模式与机理研究的演化; 研究方法跨出了对单个城市定性描述的障碍, 向定性与定量、多因素综合考虑的城市空间扩展的预防、引导与控制等^[5~10]。而国内研究起步较晚, 基本始于20世纪90年代初期, 理论研究显得较为薄弱, 表现为描述性、讨论性分析过多, 对城市空间扩展的影响因素及动力机制分析过于表述化, 而缺失对要素做功的时空差异性的分析, 且机理分析偏向静态、区内关联的分析, 而相对忽视动态、区际关联的作用^[11~19]。就具体的研究内容来说, 国内外现有研究因数据和技术方法的限制尚缺乏一套对城市空间扩展合理性评价的指标体系, 到底现有的城市空间扩展造成了多大的损失, 又以哪一种扩展模式最为合理等的判别, 缺乏一个理性的科学判断方法。已有的研究主要集中于城市蔓延及其生态环境效应^[20~22]、城镇化进程中速度过快、土地城镇化快于人口城镇化等^{[23, 24]}, 而基于非协调性视角量化城市空间扩展合理性在国内外现有研究中可以说是首例。

我国是一个人多地少的发展中国家, 以占全球1/14的土地养活着占全球1/5的人口, 人均耕地面积仅为世界平均水平的1/4, 人地矛盾极其尖锐。当前正处于城市化、工业化的加速发展阶段, 进一步加大了对城市建设用地投入的发展诉求, 而基于“ 产权区域” 的制度安排、以及城市居民对美好生活质量和居住环境的追求, 更是加剧了城市建设用地总量控制困难, 城市建设用地与农用地、生态用地配比结构不合理性, 以及城市建设用地空间配置的低效性, 加剧了人地矛盾关系。如何协调好经济发展用地现实诉求与人多地少的基本国情是当前我国可持续发展研究中亟待解决的关键性问题之一^[25]。

非协调性意指不和谐一致、配合不得当, 引申为系统、事物、行为主体（或区域）等的非共同发展, 区域之间存在显然的“ 外部性” 现象, 以损害“ 他人（或其他区域）” 利益来获取发展, 阻碍了系统的可持续发展和整体效益的最优化。它是基于逆向思维和问题诊断的视角对合理性成效的反面反馈、判别与揭示。故此, 可以从非协调性视角探寻我国城市空间扩展合理性的分析思路和识别体系, 即城市空间扩展非协调性。其是对当前可持续发展研究中的热点问题— — “ 过度扩张” 、主张“ 空间约束” 、“ 空间不匹配” 等的一个积极响应与和反馈, 是基于逆向思维和问题诊断的视角而构建的一座由非协调病理诊断通向协调发展道路的桥梁, 对于认知城市空间扩展, 缓解人多地少的基本国情和人地矛盾冲突, 促进土地资源的集约高效、合理利用和区际公平可持续发展等, 具有重要的理论意义与现实意义。

2 城市空间扩展非协调性的内涵及其识别体系的构建

2.1 城市空间扩展非协调性的内涵

（1）城市。城市是一个综合概念, 蕴含多种内涵：其中人地关系理论认为城市是一个以“ 人” 为主体的人地关系相互作用最为强烈的区域, 功能组合理论认为城市是地域功能综合体中的一个重要节点, 其在一个国家或地区城镇体系社会经济发展中扮演着各自独特的角色, 系统理论认为城市是一个涵盖人、经济、产业、基础设施、生态环境等的复合生态系统, 而要素理论则认为城市是人类社会生产生活活动的载体, 肩负着城镇居民工作、居住及社会福利建设诉求的重担等。所以理应综合地看待其空间扩展的概念与内涵。正如上文所述, 城市空间扩展不仅是一个地域空间表达过程, 涉及城市建设用地与各种要素（城市人口、经济发展、基础设施等）的空间配比, 同时更是一个人地关系相互作用的过程（抑或结果）, 涉及国家利益不统一的城市建设用地与农用地、生态用地的竞争、区域之间的竞争与合作等。

（2）城市空间扩展非协调性。从字面意思理解为城市空间扩展的非协调性状态或程度, 即城市空间扩展中, 建设用地投入与城市社会经济发展水平、生态环境承载能力、地域功能定位等在时空上不匹配、非协同发展现象。具体表征为：要素配置上, 城市建设用地投入总量和速度与城市社会经济发展、生态环境承载等没有实现同步发展的目标, 空间上各“ 产权区域” 城市建设用地投入与其社会经济发展、城市规模和城市社会功能服务等在全国城市等级体系中定位不匹配, 结构上城市建设用地与农用地、生态用地没有实现“ 帕累托” 最优等。为此文中将其简单概括为城市建设用地总量控制非协调性, 城市建设用地与农用地、生态用地配比结构非协调性, 以及城市建设用地空间配置非协调性3个方面, 其中空间配置非协调性又可进一步细分为区际功能的不匹配和区内结构组合的不协调。

2.2 城市空间扩展非协调性识别体系的构建

（1）城市建设用地总量控制非协调性。城市建设用地总量控制是中央政府针对国家社会经济发展水平及其发展阶段、城市居民心里、心理需求层次、城镇化发展阶段及其水平、以及整个国家的基本国情而有计划实施的土地战略调控布局, 强调的是城市建设用地投入量与社会经济发展用地诉求、居民生活质量提升用地诉求及城市合理、高效营运用地诉求等的匹配关系。故此, 可以构建基于GDP总量、人均GDP和城市化率等指标的“ 区域城市建设用地增长弹性系数” 来表征。

（2）城市建设用地与农用地、生态用地配比结构非协调性。① 粮食安全是城市建设用地和农用地配比结构合理性判别的一个主要依据。欧美发达国家的经验表明, 随着收入水平的提升, 人们对粮食的需求量是递增, 其是一个基于市场购买力的函数关系式。为此, 本文试图运用基于市场购买力的农用地粮食生产人均供给量与人均消费市场需求量的比值来判别, 即（人均粮食供给增量/人均GDP增量）与（人均粮食消费增量/人均GDP增量）的比值, 如果不少于“ 1” 则认为城市建设用地与农用地的配比结构在目前看来是合理的。② 城市建设用地与生态用地配比结构合理性, 由于数据和方法的束缚, 文中选取生态用地减少与地质灾害、滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、地面塌陷、地震次数、地震级别和人员伤亡及直接经济损失等的关联来侧面“ 映射” 。理由是：生态用地的减少、加上人类活动强度的提升, 加大了对生态环境的“ 扰动” , 也就引发了生态敏感性的凸显, 导致各种生态环境问题发生频率和发生规模加大（经济损失剧增）^[26]。

（3）城市建设用地空间配置非协调性。一是, 区际功能匹配非协调性, 与城市建设用地总量控制控制非协调性相类似, 表征的是基于生态环境“ 阈值” 、经济发展水平、城镇人口规模、社会服务功能属性等城市建设用地投入的匹配状态或程度, 采用城市建设用地与各表征要素的区位商（公式1）, 结合散点图的点垂距（式2）来判别^[27], 并据点垂距D值将其划分为建设用地投入超前型（D远大于“ 0” ）、相对协调型（D在“ 0” 附近）和滞后型（D远小于“ 0” ）三大类, 文中选用非农产值、地方财政税收来代表社会经济发展水平, 选取非农人口表征城镇人口规模, 社会非农化指数^[25]来代表社会功能属性; 二是, 区内结构组合方面, 总量上运用城市化的质量— — 人口、经济、空间城市化的内在耦合协调度来考察, 理由是城市功能的优劣可以表征为城市内在人口、产业、经济、基础设施与区域城市建设用地投入的数量组合关系; 增量上采用“ 用地增长弹性系数” 来表征— — 投入效率。并在此基础上按照得分属性构建如下所示的计算式— — 非协调度是一个相对概念, 通过公式3将正负效应标准化处理。

$M_{i} = \overset{m}{\sum_{j = 1}} m_{ij}; m_{ij} = \sqrt[]{\frac{\overset{n 1}{\sum_{i = 1}} (Y_{i} - X_{ij})^{2}}{n 1}}$ (1)

$D_{i} = \overset{m}{\sum_{j = 1}} d_{ij}; d_{ij} = \overset{m}{\sum_{j = 1}} \frac{\sqrt[]{2}}{2} (Y_{i} - X_{ij})$ (2)

$V_{i} = a \times \frac{M_{i}}{\sum M_{i}} + b \times (\frac{1}{C_{i}}) / \sum \frac{1}{C_{i}} + c \times (\frac{I_{i}}{n}) / \sum \frac{I_{i}}{n}$ (3)

式中:M_i、D_i、V_i、C_i、I_i分别为第i个地区城市建设用地空间配置之区际功能非匹配度、点垂距、空间配置非协调度、“ 人口— 经济— 空间” 城市化的耦合协调度和增长弹性系数; a, b, c为待定系数（文中选取a=0.5, b=c=0.25）, n为弹性系数衡量指标个数, n1为样本单元数; Y_i、X_ij分别代表城市i其建设用地及其对应考察指标在全国总量中所占的份额。

在此, 需要说明的是, 作者认为城市化是一个基于“ 人口— 经济— 空间” 城市化的综合概念, 其中人是行为主体, 经济是驱动力, 空间是载体……, 并据此构建如参考文献[28~30]所示的指标体系。用地增长弹性系数选取非农人口、非农产出、固定资产投资来考察。

3 计算结果与分析

3.1 研究对象、数据来源与处理

（1）研究对象。文中选取我国所有的地级及以上城市为样本单元。考虑到数据的可获取性、统计口径变化带来的可比较性, 以及国家行政区划及建制的调整（改县为市等）的影响, 文中最终选取的样本单元数为246个, 时点上只做了2008年时点断面的格局分析, 而对于2008年以后及其时序演变特征予以了放弃— — 原因在于城市非农人口规模在2000— 2008年统计分类为非农人口（和农业人口）, 而后改为城镇人口（和农村人口, 即准市民无法真正注释城市化的本质）, 统计口径变了, 无法统一。

（2）数据来源与处理。如无特殊说明, 本文所使用的数据均直接或间接来源于中国统计出版社出版的《2009中国城市统计年鉴》、《2009中国城市年鉴》, 而“ 用地增长弹性系数” 的部分数据, 文中选取2005年的《中国城市统计年鉴》作为参照（考虑到山西省的吕梁市、内蒙古自治区的巴彦淖尔市等城市2004年才设立为地级市）; 数据使用前, 首先需要对部分数据进行“ 指数平减法（1978年）” 处理以消除通货膨胀的干扰, 再按照指标功效性进行标准化处理。

3.2 非协调性的判别

3.2.1 城市建设用地总量控制非协调性的判别

中国城市建设用地总量增长明显, 由2004年的28 449.78 km²增长到2008年的57 265.86 km², 增幅达101.286%, 年均增幅超过20%。而与之对应的国内生产总值、人均GDP和非农人口数, 虽然都得到了长足的增长, 但是无论是增长规模还是年均增幅, 都远远低于前者（表1）。为了更准确地揭示三者的内在关联, 文中对其用地增长弹性系数进行了计算, 结果发现：基于经济发展、人均收入和非农人口规模的我国城市建设用地增长弹性系数均大于“ 1” , 其中城市建设用地— 经济增长弹性系数为1.777, 城市建设用地— 人均GDP增长弹性系数为1.889, 城市建设用地— 非农人口增长弹性系数为16.795。表明我国城市建设用地总量控制的非协调性现象是非常明显的, 经济经济增长带有典型的资源（这里特指土地资源）粗放利用的特征— — 即通常所说的以资源投入促社会经济的发展, 城市建设用地投入规模和速度快于社会经济发展用地的现实诉求、快于城镇居民生活质量提升对建设用地的诉求, 土地城镇化速度明显快于人口城镇化速度, 是一种典型的粗放、低效的投入方式, 土地资源浪费严重。同时我们也可以说, 在该研究时段内, 国家相对重视经济的快速发展而相对忽视农村人口市民化过程（户籍制度就是最好的印证）。

表1 2004— 2008年中国城市建设用地总量增长弹性系数 Table 1 Growth elasticity of China's total urban construction land(2004-2008)

3.2.2 城市建设用地与农用地、生态用地配比结构非协调性的判别

（1）城市建设用地与农用地配比结构非协调性的识别。我国粮食总产量和人均占有量在2000— 2008年间都有较大幅度的提升, 其中粮食总产量由初始的46 217.5万t增长到期末的52 870.9万t, 人均占有量由初期的364.7 kg增长到末期的398.1 kg, 但是耕地面积却在锐减, 由2000年的1.2824 hm²减少到2008年的1.2172 hm²（表2）, 而人均粮食消费量则由1978年的199 kg增加到1986年的253 kg（表2）。农用地粮食产量是否满足基于购买力的市场需求呢?下面运用人均粮食供给量与人均GDP的增长弹性系数和人均粮食消费量与人均GDP的增长弹性系数的比值来判别。

表2 2000— 2008年中国人均粮食产量与人均GDP的增长弹性系数 Table 2 Growth elasticity of China's per capita grain output and GDP per capita (2000-2008 )

结果如表2所示：2000— 2008年我国人均粮食生产总量和人均GDP的增长弹性系数为0.0857, 即人均GDP增加100元, 农用地人均粮食生产量增加8.57㎏ ; 1978— 1986年我国人均粮食消费总量和人均GDP的增长弹性系数为0.2864, 即人均GDP增加100元, 人均粮食消费总量增加28.64㎏。考虑到2000— 2008年较1978— 1986年其人均粮食消费量增长增加幅度有所下降的趋势（同处0.3以上恩格尔系数阶段）, 文中选取0.15的增长弹性系数作为衡量指标更具现实意义, 即在2000— 2008年间, 人均GDP每增加100元则人均粮食消费总量增加15㎏。大于农用地人均粮食生产的供给量。从而推断判出城市建设用地与农用地配比结构存在明显的非协调性状态, 换句话说就是在目前看来需要扩大耕地面积以保证国内粮食生产的自给自足。

（2）城市建设用地与生态用地配比结构非协调性的判别。城市建设用地一定程度上代表了人类社会生产、生活活动对城市复合生态系统的“ 外在扰动（或压力）” , 其规模越大则意味着“ 外在扰动” 越强, 反之越弱; 生态用地则一定程度上代表了复合生态系统的自我调整能力, 即内在“ 弹性” 大小, 同样与规模呈正相关; 而各种生态环境问题（即复合生态系统的敏感性）则代表了复合生态系统“ 外在扰动（或压力）” 与内在“ 弹性” 相互作用的结果, 敏感性表征越强则意味着城市建设用地与生态用地配比结构非协调性越明显, 反之则彰显二者的协调合理。据此下面从生态环境问题展开分析（表3）。

表 3 2000— 2008年中国生态环境问题变化情况 Table 3 Changes of ecological environmental problems in China(2000-2008)

从表3中可以看出, 大自然这张“ 晴雨表” 深刻映射了人类社会生产、生活活动对复合生态系统“ 扰动” 的强度, 无论是总地质灾害次数, 还是滑坡、崩塌、地面塌陷、地震次数和强度抑或其所带来的生命财产、经济效益的损失都是在螺旋中递升, 其中人员伤亡和直接经济损失后者分别是前者的149倍和585倍之多, 一方面说明了人类社会生产、生活活动对大自然的“ 外在扰动” 非常剧烈, 复合生态系统面临着巨大的外在“ 压力” , 另一方面结合全国生态用地的不断减少, 复合生态系统的自我调节能力, 也就是其“ 弹性” 能力在下降, 二者共同作用而导致复合生态系统敏感性外在表征— — 生态环境问题越发凸显和严重。因此, 从这个视角本文可以判别说, 在2000— 2008年间, 中国城市建设用地投入与生态用地的配置结构比例是不协调、不合理的。

3.2.3 城市建设用地空间配置非协调性的判别

至于具体的分析中, 为了考察经济水平、行政力量、道路交通、城市规模（大、中城市）、气候特征、地形条件（本文主要探讨山地城市与非山地城市）、城市属性等对城市建设用地空间扩展的影响, 文中依据中国现有区域经济板块划分, 将样本单元大体分为东、中、西和东北四大经济区— — 简称区域四分法; 依据城市行政级别, 将其划分为地级市与地级以上城市（副省级城市、直辖市）二组— — 简称行政等级二分法; 依据交通主干线（东西— 南北铁路干线）对城市建设用地空间扩展的影响, 将其划分为铁路干线城市与非铁路干线城市两大类— — 铁路干线二分法[ 京九铁路：北京— 廊坊— 沧州— 衡水— 邢台— 阜阳— 毫州— 信阳— 麻城市— 黄冈— 武穴— 九江— 南昌— 宜春— 吉安— 赣州— 河源— 惠州— 东莞— 深圳; 京广铁路：北京— 保定— 石家庄— 邢台— 邯郸— 安阳— 鹤壁— 新乡— 郑州— 许昌— 漯河— 驻马店— 信阳— 孝感— 武汉— 咸宁— 赤壁— 岳阳— 长沙— 株洲— 衡阳— 郴州— 韶关— 清远— 广州; 陇海铁路：徐州— 洛阳— 郑州— 开封— 商丘— 三门峡— 宝鸡— 咸阳— 西安— 渭南— 兰州— 定西— 陇海— 天水]; 依据城市规模（非农人口规模）将其划分为大、中小城市（不小于50万为大城市, 其余为划分为中小城市）两大类— — 简称城市规模二分法; 依据寒地特征将其划分为寒地城市与非寒地城市两大类— — 简称气候条件二分法^[31]; 依据地形条件将其划分为山地城市与非山地城市两大类— — 简称地形条件二分法^[32]; 依据城市属性将其划分为矿业城市与非矿业城市两大类— — 简称城市性质二分法。从分区、分类的思维对我国城市建设用地空间配置非协调性的内在规律性特征进行揭示、归纳与汇总。

（1）区际功能匹配非协调性的判别。运用公式（1, 2）计算结果表明：城市建设用地空间配置之区际功能匹配非协调性状态明显, 且呈现一些内在的规律性特征。

首先是空间分异特征明显, 非匹配度最大取值上海（0.118）与最小取值陇南（0.004）相差31倍之多, 结合点垂距D值判别的城市建设用地投入相对超前型城市有76个（图1）, 占城市总数的30.89%, 表明中国城市建设用地资源空间配置整体水平还是比较不合理的, 其中上海最为明显— — 这似乎和我们通常所理解的完全相反, 其实不然, 原因主要归结于行政区划调整, 上海城镇建设用地投入, 通过行政区划调整由2005年的820 km²增加到2009年的2 429km²。

其次分区研究中, 呈现出东部地区（0.022）> 中部地区（0.017）> 东北地区（0.015）> 西部地区（0.014）的基本格局, 与当前区域经济发展水平呈正相关, 区域经济发展水平越高, 其所在城市建设用地投入空间配置非匹配性越明显（表4）。

再者分类研究中（表5）, 行政等级二分法呈现出地级以上城市（0.030）> 地级市城市（0.016）的基本特征, 地级以上城市的建设用地空间配置之区际功能非匹配性较地级城市的建设用地空间配置之区际功能非匹配性要高, 结合非匹配度的点垂距D值表明, 地级以上城市建设用地投入效率相对高效、集约, 反之则相对低效、粗放, 因此, 从这个视角来说, 副省级城市代表的行政力量, 对城市建设用地投入效率整体说来是一种正向促进效应; 交通条件二分法（铁路干线二分法）呈现出铁路干线城市（0.022）> 非铁路干线城市（0.017）的基本特征, 结合点垂距D值表明, 位于铁路干线沿线城市的建设用地投入的合理性（土地节约集约利用）程度整体水平较非铁路干线城市的建设用地投入的合理性（土地节约集约利用）程度要高, 表明交通条件的优劣在某种程度上影响着城市建设用地投入效率/效益; 城市规模二分法特征明显, 大城市和中小城市的建设用地空间配置之区际功能非匹配度（M平均值）呈现出中小城市（0.020）> 大城市（0.003）的基本特征, 而点垂距D平均值呈现出大城市（0.000）> 中小城市（-0.002）的基本特征, 这似乎与我们传统意义上的规模集聚效益相悖论?本文认为这可能与选取的分类标准（非农人口数50万有关）, 其次在于城市规模不经济的表现, 具体原因有待今后深入分析; 气候条件（寒地特征）二分法呈现出寒地城市（0.018）> 非寒地城市（0.015）的基本特征, 即寒地城市建设用地空间配置之区际功能匹配非协调性较非寒地城市要高, 而点垂距D值同样验证了“ 地理成本（气候条件）” 对城市建设用地投入效率的限制作用, 通常“ 地理成本” 越高, 则其对城市建设用地投入产出限制相对来说也越大; 地形条件二分法呈现出非山地城市（0.017）> 山地城市（0.016）的基本特征, 结合D值, 同样表明山地城市建设用地投入总体说来还是比较集约高效的, 因为特殊的地形条件和投入成本而限制了城市建设用地投入规模, 进而实现了节约集约用地的可能; 城市属性二分法呈现出非矿业城市（0.017）> 矿业城市（0.004）的基本特征, 而点垂距D值则认为矿业城市建设用地投入反而较非矿业城市建设用地投入效率更高、更集约节约, 原因在于选取的66个矿业城市中, 有54个处于中年期（占总数的81.82%）, 其经济发展水平相对较高, 吸引了大量的矿工前来就业, 而雄厚的地方财政税收更是为社会公共事务的发展提供了可能, 进而导致其城市建设用地投入的“ 所谓” 的相对集约高效, 按照正常的现实逻辑, 其通常是一种“ 虚假” 的集约高效, 是以丰富的矿产资源为支撑的高发展。

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图1 中国城市建设用地空间配置之区际功能非匹配性的分类注：D< -0.001为相对滞后型; -0.001≤ D≤ 0.001为基本协调型; D> 0.001为相对超前型Fig.1 Functional mismatching classification of China’ s urban construction land space allocationD< -0.001 stands for relative lag type; -0.001≤ D≤ 0.001 stands for basic coordination type; D> 0.001 stands for relative advanced type

表4 四大区域城市建设用地投入的点垂距D值和M值的平均数 Table 4 Mean of point vertical distance D and M values of urban construction land in four regions

表5 中国城市建设用地空间配置之区际功能非匹配性的特征分类 Table 5 Feature classification of space allocation inter-district non-matching of Chinese urban construction land

（2）区内结构组合非协调性的判别。依据前文的分析, 下面从总量人口— 经济— 空间城市化耦合非协调度和增量用地增长弹性系数非协调性展开分析。

① 人口— 经济— 空间城市化耦合非协调度的识别。基于均方差赋权法和物理学中的耦合容量模型（具体步骤参考文献[29]）进行计算及标准化处理, 结果表明：

首先, 空间分异特征明显, 取值位于前10位的城市如定西市、贵港市等, 基本上是一些后期新兴的城市, 而位于后10位的城市如深圳市、北京市、广州市等基本属于直辖市或者副省级城市, 其中耦合非协调最大值定西市（0.0071）与最小值深圳市（0.0018）相差3.8倍; 且整体水平基本处于低水平耦合发展阶段。

表6 四大区域城市化耦合非协调度的平均得分 Table 6 The average score of the non-coordinated degree of coupling in four regional urbanization

其次分区研究中（表6）, 呈现出西部地区（0.0046）> 东北地区（0.0039）> 中部地区（0.0036）> 东部地区（0.0035）的基本格局, 由东向西依次递增; 其格局与区域经济发展水平及其空间格局呈负相关, 即其经济发展水平越差则其人口— 经济— 空间城市化耦合的非协调度整体水平就越高, 反之则其对应的人口— 经济— 空间城市化耦合的非协调度整体水平就越低。这与“ 财权” 和“ 事权” 相统一是息息相关的。

再者分类研究中（表7）, 行政等级二分法呈现出地级城市（0.0042）> 地级以上城市（0.0026）的基本特征, 即城市行政等级越高, 其人口— 经济— 空间城市化耦合的非协调性整体水平相对来说就低, 反之越高; 交通（铁路干线）二分法呈现出非铁路干线城市（0.0041）> 铁路干线城市（0.0037）的基本特征, 铁路沿线城市其人口— 经济— 空间城市化协同发展水平整体上较非铁路干线沿线城市要好; 城市规模二分法呈现出中小城市（0.0044）> 大城市（0.0040）的基本特征, 即中小城市的人口— 经济— 空间城市化的耦合协调发展程度整体上较大城市要差区域; 气候条件（寒地特征）二分法呈现出寒地城市（0.0042）> 非寒地城市（0.0040）的基本特征, 即寒地城市的城市建设用地投入总量与城市产业、基础设施、社会经济发展水平等规模组合关系较非寒地城市所对应的规模要素组合关系要差, 换句话说, 寒冷气候对所在城市的人口— 经济— 空间城市化的耦合协调进程产生某种消极的影响; 地形条件二分法的特征不明显; 城市属性二分法呈现出非矿业城市（0.0041）> 矿业城市（0.0039）的基本特征, 即矿业城市内在的人口— 经济— 空间城市化的耦合非协调性明显低于非矿业城市的人口— 经济— 空间城市化的耦合非协调性。而从经济城市化、人口城市化与空间城市化的大小来看, 基本上是以经济城市化和空间城市化为主宰, 人口城市化长进不大, 侧面说明全国城市化进程相对重视经济城市化、期间夹带土地资源的低效利用, 而普遍忽视人口城市化进程的推进。

表7 人口— 经济— 空间城市化耦合非协调度的特征分类 Table 7 Characteristics classification of non-coordination degree among population - economy - space urbanization

② 用地增长弹性非协调性的识别。通过用地增长弹性系数计算, 结果表明：

首先, 中国城市建设用地增长弹性系数的平均值为1.92, 整体上可以说是一种低效、无序的用地扩展模式, 土地资源浪费严重— — 其中取值大于“ 1” 的城市有65个, 占总数的26.42%, 用陆大道院士的话说就是：近10年来中国城镇化空间扩展失控现象极为严重, 形成了大分散和蔓延式的扩张, 如果不能有效遏制“ 冒进式” 城镇化和空间扩展失控的严峻趋势, 其将会成为中国整个现代化进程中的“ 桎梏” 与障碍^[33]; 空间分异特征明显, 最大值佛山（66.212）和最小值遂宁（0.017）, 二者相差3895倍。

其次分区分类研究中（表8）, 分区呈现出东部地区（2.528）> 西部地区（0.711）> 中部地区（0.690）> 东北地区（0.647）的空间格局; 行政等级二分法呈现出地级以上城市（1.2659）> 地级城市（1.1900）的特征; 道路交通（铁路干线）二分法呈现铁路干线沿线城市（1.1500）> 非铁路干线沿线城市（1.1920）的特征; 城市规模二分法呈现中小城市（1.0726）> 大城市（0.1720）的特征; 城市属性二分法呈现矿业城市城市（0.6884）> 非矿业城市（0.2267）的特征; 气候特征二分法呈现寒地城市（1.0274）> 非寒地城市（0.4002）的特征; 地形条件特征不明显。说明城市建设用地投入产出边际效率确实存在“ 地理成本（气候）” 、区位、城市规模、行政力量等的作用功效。

表 8 城市建设用地增长弹性系数分类特征汇总 Table 8 Summary of growth elasticity classification feature of urban construction land

（3）空间配置综合非协调性的判别。下面结合公式（3）, 采用同样的分析思路, 对我国城市建设用地空间配置非协调性进行判别。结果表明：

首先, 非协调数值（都大于0）表明中国确实存在城市建设用地空间配置协调性, 且呈现明显的空间分异, 其中最大值佛山市（0.060）与最小值南京市（0.002）相差30倍之多; 而取值位于前10%的城市其城市建设用地空间配置非协调度总和占据了所有城市建设用地空间配置非协调度的26.30%, 可见其空间极化现象是非常明显的（图2, 表9）。

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'>	图2 中国城市建设用地空间配置非协调性评价结果Fig.2 The results of non-coordination of China's urban construction land space allocation

其次分区研究中, 呈现出东部地区（0.0057）> 中部地区（0.0036）> 西部地区（0.0034）> 东北地区（0.0032）的格局特征, 与经济发展水平基本成正相关— — 经济越发展, 城市建设用地空间配置非协调性相对就越明显, 反之, 经济相对不发展, 则其城市建设用地空间配置的非协调性相对就越不明显。

再者分类研究中, 行政等级二分法呈现出地级以上城市（0.0054）> 地级城市（0.0040）的基本特征, 即地级以上城市的城市建设用地空间配置不合理性程度明显强于地级城市; 道路交通二分法呈现出铁路干线沿线城市（0.0050）> 非铁路干线沿线城市（0.0040）的格局特征, 城市规模二分法呈现出中小城市（0.0042）> 大城市（0.0040）的格局特征, 城市属性二分法呈现出矿业城市（0.0035）> 非矿业城市（0.0010）的格局特征, 气候特征二分法呈现出非寒地城市（0.0043）> 寒地城市（0.0034）的格局特征, 地形条件二分法呈现出山地城市（0.0041）> 非山地城市的格局特征（0.0013）。总体说来, 中国城市建设用地空间配置非协调性具有“ 自然地理成本（气候、地形等）” 效应、“ 城市规模” 效应、“ 区位” 效应、“ 行政等级” 效应等规律特征。

表 9 中国城市建设用地空间配置非协调性分类特征汇总 Table 9 Classification feature’ s summary of space allocation non-coordination of China's urban construction land

4 结论与讨论

基于非协调性的概念与内涵, 本文对城市空间扩展进程中的地域空间表达和人地关系相互作用不合理性进行了描述界定, 指出城市空间扩展非协调性意指城市空间扩展进程中的非协调性状态或程度, 其通过城市功能定位与城市建设用地的内在属性特征, 而表征出城市建设用地与各种要素的空间配比不协调、以及人地关系的不协调; 据此文中构建了城市空间扩展非协调性识别体系。其是基于逆向思维和问题诊断的视角而构建的一座由非协调病理通向协调发展道路的桥梁, 它一方面扩展了城市空间扩展研究的新视角, 是对当前合理性评价相对缺乏的一个有益补充, 同时也有利于推动城市空间扩展研究的“ 区域化” ; 另一方面为科学认识我国当前城市空间扩展进程中的协调与非协调性状态提供了比较与借鉴, 对于揭示其成因、提出有针对性的优化调控对策提供了理论依据— — 我国当前正处于城市建设用地扩展速度快、规模大, 用地结构矛盾, 空间配置低效等“ 非协调性问题” 集中形成期, 该体系为科学认识其进程、把握规律, 提供了最佳时机。具有重要的理论和现实意义。

我国城市空间扩展非协调性的实证分析结果表明：

（1）中国城市空间扩展非协调性特征明显：研究表明, 无论是基于国内生产总值、人均GDP和非农人口规模的城市建设用地总量控制的非协调性, 还是基于市场购买力的农用地粮食生产供给和市场消费需求、生态环境问题演化的城市建设用地与农用地、生态用地之间的配比结构非协调性, 抑或说基于空间配置之区际功能匹配非协调性、区内结构组合之人口— 经济— 空间城市化耦合非协调性、用地增量表征的用地增长弹性系数非协调性, 都表现出明显的非协调性特征。

（2）整体说来, 我国当前城市建设用地空间扩展进程过于追求经济效益, 而相对忽视社会效益与生态环境效益的并进发展, “ 唯GDP论” 特征明显：代表经济利益的城市建设用地总量控制不理想, 而代表“ 粮食安全（社会利益）” 和“ 生态安全（生态利益）” 的农用地与生态用地在不断向城市建设用地流转、在缩减。在城市内部建设用地投入总量效率表征的人口— 经济— 空间城市化中, 其中经济城市化占据了绝对的主导地位, 空间城市化次之, 人口城市处于绝对的从属地位, 而在城市内部建设用地投入增量效率的表征中, 指出非农人口规模是城市建设用地区内组合之用地增长弹性系数非协调性的主要贡献者, 占据了全部的42%以上。因此, 从上述的分析可以说, 我国当前城市建设用地投入整体说来相对重视经济效益的追求而相对忽视社会效益和生态环境效益的关注。

（3）“ 产权区域” 视角下, 我国当前城市建设用地的空间配置“ 非帕累托最优” 特征明显, 其整体投入效率相对低下：城市建设用地空间配置之区际功能不匹配性分析中, 城市建设用地投入相对超前型城市有76个, 占据了整个研究单元的30.89%, 可见我国城市建设用地资源空间配置整体水平还是较为低下、不合理的; 而在城市内部建设用地投入之区内结构组合的用地增长弹性系数分析中, 同样存在类似的现象, 全国城市建设用地增长弹性系数的平均值为1.92, 依据学术界划定的以“ 1” 为参照标准可知, 我国城市建设用地投入整体上是一种低效、无序的用地扩展模式, 土地资源浪费严重— — 其中取值大于“ 1” 的城市有65个, 占总数的26.42%, 用陆大道院士的话说就是, “ 近10年来中国城镇化空间扩展失控现象极为严重, 形成了大分散和蔓延式的扩张……” 。

（4）城市建设用地空间配置非协调性分析中, 引入了分区、分类的思想, 并得出经济发展、行政等级、城市属性（矿业城市与非矿业城市）、城市规模（以非农人口数50万为分界线划分为大城市和中小城市）、气候条件（寒地城市与非寒地城市）、地形条件（山地城市和非山地城市）、交通条件（铁路干线沿线城市与非铁路干线沿线城市）等特征要素, 对我国城市空间扩展非协调性产行了某些积极或消极的影响, 具有“ 自然地理成本（气候、地形等）” 效应、“ 城市规模” 效应、“ 区位” 效应、“ 行政等级体系” 效应等。

（5）中国区域城市空间扩展非协调性的内在机理是什么呢?区域城市建设用地空间扩展非协调性是由特定地域范围内的“ 人” , 基于当地地理基本要素（土地丰度与肥度、地形地貌等条件）、制度环境、生产方式、生活理念等区域属性特征的基础上, 为满足自身多层次生理、心理需求而通过发展社会经济与当地地理环境（生态环境）相互作用— — 人地关系, 与相邻区域竞争合作— — 人人关系, 并通过城市建设用地与农用地以及生态用地的数量关联演化、及其用地配置效率而得以表征。故此, 中国城市建设用地空间扩展非协调性的作用机理及其影响因素分析, 首先应该以各个阶段“ 人” 的需求为基准点, 其次应该立足于当前的制度安排环境, 再者需要分析哪些要素影响“ 人” 的需求, 对各经济行为主体产生什么样的激励抑或约束效用等角度展开分析。具体内容涉及“ 产区域权” 制度、经济行为主体效用函数及其影响因素、制度政策、区域地理基本属性特征、历史基础等方面。其中“ 区域产权” 制度和区域外部作用是我国城市建设用地空间扩展非协调性产生的根源所在。

综上所述, 实证分析结果较好地揭示了我国城市空间扩展进程中的非协调性状态, 与现实相吻合, 也就说明了该识别体系具有一定的可取之处。但同时需要指出的是, 实证分析只做了静态分析, 而缺乏对动态情景的披露, 其是否依然可以准确地予以揭示还有待今后进一步深入研究, 尤其对于生态环境指标体系选取以及分区分类的规律性总结需要继续深化。其次, 对于实证分析中的我国非协调性状态的成因、潜在的“ 响应” 调控对策的提出等也是今后研究中不容忽视的科学问题。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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2013

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. 2013, 32(3):381-388 DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.03.007

Comparative analysis of characteristics, effects and driving factors of urban sprawl in Changchun-Jilin during 2000-2009

1. School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China; 2. Shenyang Bureau of State Land Supervision, Shenyang 110136, China

Economic core regions are the main space of national and regional economic growth and urbanization development, but at the same time face the severe problems of urban sprawl. The integrated Changchun-Jilin(Chang-Ji) region is an economic core region on a national scale, a pilot of cooperative development and opening in Tumenjiang region, and the major grain producing region in northeastern China. It shoulders multiple responsibilities such as economic growth, urbanization of population and food security. Therefore, selecting Chang-Ji as a research object for the study of urban sprawl is representative and of great practical significance. Based on remote sensing images in 2000, 2005, 2009's and Almanacs of the related years, using GIS and SPSS statistical tools, we conducted a comparative analysis on the extent, process, effects and driving factors of urban sprawl of Changchun City and Jilin City. The results show that, (1) Changchun City has a higher level of urban land expansion than Jilin City; Jilin City shows significant stage characteristics. (2) In terms of the extent of urban sprawl, both cities show a low level of land use intensity and a high level of sprawling; in Changchun City industrial development and urbanization of the population are roughly in the same pace, but in Jilin City majority of the new land is used for industrial development. (3) In regard to the process of urban sprawl, Changchun City takes the process of "neighboring areas pushing on", while Jilin City shows a process of "axle band expanding". (4) As far as the effects of urban sprawl are concerned, both cities are negatively affected, e.g., loss of ecological and life security, rapid decrease of cultivated land; the severity in Changchun City is more striking, starting to show big-city problems. (5) Industrialization and investment are the main driving factors for both cities, which show typical government-oriented characteristics, with different factors contributing various effects. In summary, the paper points out that spatial expansion of urban land of Chang-Ji twin cities are projected to eventually go through the same "pie-style" urban sprawl as Beijing City. A simple economical and intensive land use policy can't fundamentally solve the problem, therefore it is suggested to promote intensive use within the cities and cultivate regional city clusters to form a system of urban cities of reasonable sizes.

经济核心区是国家和地区经济增长、城市化发展的主要空间,也是城市蔓延最为严峻的区域。长(春)吉(林)一体化地区是中国图们江区域合作开发开放的先导区和东北地区的粮食主产区,肩负着“经济增长”、“人口城镇化”和“粮食安全”等多重责任。基于2000、2005、2009年的遥感图像和相关年份的统计年鉴,结合GIS和SPSS统计工具,对长、吉城市蔓延的程度、方式、效应与驱动力因子进行了比较分析。结果表明:用地扩展水平上长春市明显强于吉林市,且吉林市还表现出明显的阶段性特征;蔓延程度上,两市都表现出集约度低下、蔓延程度大的特性;蔓延方式上,长春市以“近域推进”式蔓延为主,吉林市以“轴带扩展”式蔓延为主;蔓延效应上,都带来了一系列负面效应,但长春市程度要重;在蔓延驱动力上,工业化和投资拉动是两者共同的主导影响因子,带有明显的政府导向性特征。文中提倡城市内部土地节约集约利用、区际培育城市群以形成合理的城市规模。

... 时刻与周边区域进行物质（人流、物流、信息流、资金流和技术流等）、能量和熵的交换转化和传递,引发空间的相互作用^[1,2] ...

2009

0.0

1.959

. 2009, 28(3):370-375 DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.03.007

Progress in research on urban expansion of China

1. School of Geography Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China; 2. College of Resource and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China

Summarizing the progress in research on urban spatial expansion, China has made great achievements in researches on the configuration and pattern of urban expansion, the mechanism of urban expansion, the dynamic simulation of urban expansion and the environmental influence of unban expansion. At this stage quantitative research methods are mainly used for research on urban spatial expansion of China. The driving factors of urban spatial expansion are analyzed. By remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS), accurate information about urban spatial expansion is gained. And the process of urban spatial expansion is simulated on different space-time scales. The environmental influence of unban expansion is also analyzed. At the same time there are a large number of theoretical scientific researches on urban spatial expansion. These are the main characteristics of the study on urban spatial expansion. In the future, with the improvement of research technique and methods, the research foci on the urban expansion are to investigate the rationality of urban expansion, to build quantitative dynamics model, to harmonize space increment with storage, and to enhance comparative study with foreign countries.

本文在总结了近年来中国城市空间拓展在形态与模式、空间拓展机制、空间拓展动态模拟、空间拓展环境效应等多方面所取得的丰硕成果和研究进展的基础上，提出现阶段中国城市空间拓展研究的主要特点是采用定量化的研究方法，筛选城市空间拓展的驱动因素，应用遥感和地理信息系统获得城市空间拓展准确信息，在此基础上构建模型对不同时空尺度的城市空间拓展过程加以模拟，并对城市空间拓展引起的生态环境效应加以分析，以此开展相关理论研究工作。针对目前研究工作特点和存在的不足，本文认为，今后中国城市空间拓展的主要发展方向应是借助日臻完善的研究手段和方法，深入开展城市空间拓展合理性评价，构建定量化动态模型，协调城市空间用地的增量布局与存量调整，并加强与国外城市空间拓展的比较研究。

... 时刻与周边区域进行物质（人流、物流、信息流、资金流和技术流等）、能量和熵的交换转化和传递,引发空间的相互作用^[1,2] ...

2012

0.0

2.779

. 2012, 32(9):1 047-1 054

Dynamic evolution research on non-conformity of urban construction land input in China

Department of Urban and Environmental Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, Jilin 130024, China

For the basic national conditions of China with a large people but small land, low economy development level and uneven space distribution, it is also staying in the accelerated urbanization development stage. Now it is a key problem that how to coordinate the relationships of spatial and temporal scale between the urban construction land input and the national economy and its development strategy and space layout, between the urban construction land input and the population urbanization, economy urbanization, infrastructure urbanization and the fixed asset investment, which should be solved urgently at the current urbanization process in China. The non-conformity of urban construction land input is also a main index that used to weigh the social justice and efficiency, regional coordinated and sustainable development. Therefore, to do the urban construction land input non-conformity research is of important theoretical and practical significance. This article, through building an urban construction land input non-conformity index model, make a comprehensive measure on urban construction land input as to urban population, GDP, fixed assets investment, local financial tax, industry & employment non-agriculture and social non-agriculture of all the provinces from 2000 to 2009, to show the degrees and its dynamic evolution process, trend and classification. And on the basis of this assessments, the article then analyzes the reasons and puts forward some regulation countermeasures and optimizing ways to coordinate China’s urban construction land input. The result shows that: China′s urban construction land put non-conformity is on the declining up and down, but the whole benefit-level should be improved; the non-conformity’s classification and evolution gives priority to the relative coordinate type and lagged type, which also shows an obviously regional characteristic. The analysis of evolution mechanism shows that the main reasons for the non-conformity include resources and elements endowment and regional difference, national macroeconomic control, institutional constraints, historical legacy and administrative division adjustment. Finally, from the institutional reform, subject function division and district-level finance transfer payment, this article proposes some suggestions to promote urbanization construction land input′s conformity of China.

基于国情和现实发展, 对中国城镇建设用地投入非协调性进行了分析。通过构建城镇建设用地投入非协调性指数模型, 综合测度了2000~2009 年期间中国各省区城镇建设用地投入之于城镇人口、GDP、固定资产投资、地方财政税收、产业就业非农化以及社会非农化的非协调性程度及其动态演变过程、趋势和类别, 并在此基础上对其产生的原因进行剖析, 最后就如何协调中国城镇建设用地投入提出调控对策与优化途径。结果表明:中国城镇建设用地投入非协调整体呈“波浪式”的下降趋势, 但整体效益水平还有待提高;非协调性分类及其演化以相对协调型和滞后型为主, 且有着明显的区域特征;演变机理分析表明资源要素禀赋与区域差异、国家宏观调控、体制制约、历史遗留和行政区划调整是造成非协调性的主要原因;最后从体制环境改革、全国主体功能区划和区级财政转移支付视角提出优化调控对策。

... 期间无疑也带来了一系列的区域可持续发展问题,如生态环境恶化、交通拥挤、城市低效无序蔓延且不断挤占吞嗤周边高产农田和生态用地、区域发展不平衡等^[3,4] ...

2007

0.0

1.388

. 2007, 22(3):271-280

The research on new characteristics of urbanization and the strategy of regional space construction in China

1.City Research Center, Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China; 2.College of Southeast University Economic Management Academy, Nanjing 210096;3.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039,China

Globalization is the most influencing event in the 21st century and it will promote global urbanization to develop rapidly. In the period of rapid urbanization, urbanization in China takes on many new characteristics and faces problems, such as “cluster development” of urbanization, duality structure of urban and rural, “driven urbanization” and differences of regional space. The new conflicts, deterioration and impropriation of water and land bring on many negative effects on regional environment in Chinese coastal cities, such as acid rain, urban pollution, automotive fog and traffic jams. In the face of effect and impact of globalization, the anthors pointed out that we should make Chinese urbanization in a healthy way urbanization from the angle of regional space and directed by scientific ideas and building of harmonious society. We should pay much attention to the protection and construction within the urban clusters, adjust measures to local conditions, reasonably develop, structure the regional ecological safe pattern and promote information cooperation.

经济全球化成为21世纪最具有广泛影响的事件，将促进全球城市化的高速发展。我国正处在城市化高度发展时期，城市化出现“集群式”发展、城乡二元结构扩大、“驱赶型城镇化”和城市化的区域空间差异性等新特点、新问题。我国快速城市化过程中出现的新矛盾、水土资源流失与大量占用，对沿海地区一些城市的区域环境产生了很多负面影响，诸如酸雨、城市污染、汽车烟雾和交通阻塞等。面对全球城市化的巨大影响与冲击，从区域空间角度出发，提出必须在科学发展观和构建和谐社会的指导下，使我国城市化走向健康之路，实施区域空间建设新策略，注重大城市群区内的保护与建设，因地制宜、合理利用、适度发展、构建区域性的生态安全格局，促进我国信息化的区域合作。

2002

0.0

... 研究方法跨出了对单个城市定性描述的障碍,向定性与定量、多因素综合考虑的城市空间扩展的预防、引导与控制等^[5~10] ...

1983

0.0

1980

0.0

2001

0.0

2002

2.855

0.0

. 2002, 40(2):199-216 DOI:10.1016/S0921-8009(01)00254-3

Urban mobility and urban form: The social and environmental costs of different patterns of urban expansion

Abstract The question of the environmental or social costs of urban form is increasingly attracting attention in spatial policy, but scientific debate in this field is often marred by prejudices and abstract visions; empirical analyses are very rare. The present study aims at establishing, in the metropolitan area of Milan, whether different patterns of urban expansion could be associated with specific environmental costs—in particular, for land consumption and mobility generation. Different typologies of urban expansion were defined, and an impact index weighting differently journey-to-work trips with reference to mode and time length was built at the municipality level. The statistical analysis confirmed the expected “wasteful” character of sprawling development patterns in terms of land consumption, though suggesting that recent urban development is becoming relatively ‘virtuous’ with respect to the past. With reference to the mobility generated, higher environmental impacts were proved to be associated with low densities, sprawling development, more recent urbanisation processes and residential specialisation of the single municipalities. Public transport seems to be strongly influenced, both in terms of efficiency and competitiveness, by the structural organisation of an urban area: the more dispersed and less structured the development, the lower its level of efficiency and competitiveness and consequently its share of the mobility market. On the contrary, trip times for private transport appear to be correlated not so much to urban dimension or density as to the presence of recent housing development, indicating the emergence of new models of lifestyle and mobility which are very different from those of the past.

2000

0.0

... 研究方法跨出了对单个城市定性描述的障碍,向定性与定量、多因素综合考虑的城市空间扩展的预防、引导与控制等^[5~10] ...

2010

0.0

2.937

. 2010, 65(6):715-726

Dynamic analysis of island urban spatial expansion and its determinants: A case study of Xiamen Island

1. Institute of Urban Environment, CAS, Xiamen 361021, Fujian, China; 2. Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Most cities in the world are concentrated in coastal areas. As a special geographical component of coastal system, island urban spatial expansion is the outcome of interactions between city development and physical environment. This paper takes Xiamen Island, southeastern China, as an example to analyze island urban spatial expansion and its determinants by combining literature analysis of urban development policies, urban overall plans, population growth and industrial development, and geographical information analysis of historical maps and remote sensing images. Firstly, we reviewed the nearly 100 years of the Xiamen city development which can be identified into four periods: the embryo of modern city and early development (1908-1949; administrative boundary expansion and infrastructure development (1950-1979); special economic zone construction and rapid urbanization (1980-2003); changes from island city to bay city development since 2003. The dynamic changes of coastline, island shape, built-up area, transportation, administrative division, and major land use type conversion during the past about 100 years were analyzed individually and the characteristics of the island urban spatial expansion were concluded: expansion from a central point in the early days, expansion along a section of coastline, and expansion from coastline to inner land. Secondly, the potential determinants of island urban spatial expansion were discussed including administrative division adjustment, urban master planning revisions, industrial development, topography factors, coastal land reclamation, transportation expansion, and population growth. Finally, the effects of each potential determinant on island urban spatial expansion were summarized. The island urban spatial expansion is a result of interacted natural and social economic factors. The built-up area expansion is the major driver of island land cover and land use changes. This study can provide a scientific reference for further development of island and coastal regions of China.

海岸带是目前世界上城市化最集中的区域，海岛作为海岸带的一个特殊地理组成，其城市空间扩张过程可以理解为城市发展与自然地理环境之间相互耦合作用的结晶。本文以中国东南沿海的厦门岛为例，结合厦门岛城市发展的相关政策、城市规划、人口、产业等历史与现状资料的文本分析，通过图片修整和遥感地理信息分析相结合的方法，首先回顾厦门岛近100 年的城市化历程，分析厦门岛海岸线、岛屿形状、建成区、交通、行政区划及主要土地利用类型历史变化及城市空间扩张特征；然后从行政区划、城市总体规划、产业发展、地形、围填海、交通和人口等方面分别探讨影响海岛城市空间扩张的潜在决定因素；总结各种因素对海岛城市空间扩张的作用；以期为中国甚至世界其它沿海城市合理开发海岛，促进海岸带可持续城市化提供科学借鉴。

... 而国内研究起步较晚,基本始于20世纪90年代初期,理论研究显得较为薄弱,表现为描述性、讨论性分析过多,对城市空间扩展的影响因素及动力机制分析过于表述化,而缺失对要素做功的时空差异性的分析,且机理分析偏向静态、区内关联的分析,而相对忽视动态、区际关联的作用^[11~19] ...

2005

0.0

2011

0.0

2008

0.0

2.937

. 2008, 63(3):301-310

Characteristics of China#cod#x02019;s town-level land usein rapid urbanization stage

1. Infomation Center of MLR, Beijing 100812, China; 2. China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Beijing 100035, China; 3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

China is now at a rapid urbanization stage, and various measures are needed including land use regulation to ensure healthy urbanization process. Based on land use change survey data of the Ministry of Land and Resources, this paper analyzes status of town-level land use at the stage of rapid urbanization of China, from aspects of town-level land quantity, town land area per person, land occupied by town construction, land use structure of town, spatial pattern of town-level land, and their spatio-temporal changes. It then identifies major town-level land use problems of this stage as town-level land scale being out of control, extensive land utilization, affected macroscopic economic development, affected cultivated land protection and food security, menaced social harmonious development, misadjusted land use structure, and deteriorated eco-environment. It finally explores scientific land use strategy for healthy urbanization, from the angles of rational guiding town expansion and rigidly reinforcing agriculture land protection, optimizing regional and town-level land use structure and distribution, frugally and intensively utilizing town-level land with various measures, giving overall consideration and coordinating regional urban and rural residential built-up land, and promoting benign town-level land eco-environment through simultaneous adoption of prevention and control measures.

主要利用国土资源部土地利用变更调查数据, 从城镇土地数量、人均城镇土地、城镇建设占地、城镇内部用地结构和城镇土地空间格局及其时空变化等方面分析了中国城镇化快速发展阶段的城镇土地利用现状, 并将这一阶段的主要城镇土地利用问题归结为总量失控、粗放利用、影响宏观经济平稳运行、影响耕地保护和粮食安全、危及社会和谐发展、土地利用结构失调, 以及生态环境恶化等方面, 最后从合理引导城镇扩张并加强农地保护、优化区域和城镇内部用地结构布局、多手段节约集约利用城镇土地、统筹协调区域城乡居民点建设用地, 以及防治并举促进城镇土地生态良性化等角度探讨了城镇化健康发展的用地策略。

2014

0.0

1.056

2010

0.0

2011

0.0

2007

0.0

2.937

. 2007, 62(4):437-447

Spatio-temporal characteristics of urbanization area growth in the Yangtze River Delta

1. Coastal Resources and Environment Research Center, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China; 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 3. College of Commercial Science, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China

The Yangtze River Delta is one of the economically developed coastal areas. From the late 1970s, its urbanization process has been quickened greatly, which resulted in the number increase and the spatial expansion of urban areas. The Landsat MSS, TM/ETM satellite images, which were respectively acquired in 5 periods of 1979, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, were used to extract urban land information and analyze urban growth data with the help of remote sensing and GIS softwares. We analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics including urban growth speed, growth intensity, fractal dimension and urban growth pattern. Additionally, dynamics of urban expansion in the Yangtze River Delta were also analyzed. The results are drawn as follows: (1) From 1979 to 2005, the growth speed of urbanization area was accelerating obviously. The quantities of increasing area of urbanized land were 37.66 , 112.43 km 2 , 274.86 km 2 and 421.73 km 2 in the past four periods (1979-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000 and 2000-2005), respectively. Meanwhlie, the growth intensities of urbanized land enhanced gradually. From 1979 to 1990, the growth intensity was only 0.03, then reaching 0.10, 0.24 and 0.37 in the following three periods. (2) The spatial structure of urbanization area in the Yangtze River Delta was fractal. The fractal dimension and stability coefficient of urbanized land structure fluctuated to a certain extent. From 1979 to 2000, the fractal dimension of urbanized land structure decreased yearly. The shape of urbanized land tended to be regular. After 2000, the area increase of urbanized land on a large scale led to more complicated shape of urbanized land. The stability coefficient also had similar characteristics to that of fractal dimension. So the change of urbanized land in spatial structure was relating to the growth process of urbanized land. (3) The growth process of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta was from one pole and two belts to five poles and five belts. From 1979 to 1990, Shanghai was the only first-grade growth pole of urbanized land and Shanghai-Nanjing railway and Shanghai-Hangzhou railway were the two first-grade growth belts of urbanized land in the Yangtze River Delta. At the latest period (from 2000 to 2005), the first-grade growth poles included 5 cities, i.e., Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Ningbo. Besides Shanghai-Nanjing railway and Shanghai-Hangzhou railway, Shanghai-Jingjiang railway, Hangzhou-Ningbo railway and the highway linking Nanjing to Gaochun also became growth belts of urbanized land in the Yangtze River Delta in that period.

以Landsat MSS、TM、ETM 卫星影像为主要数据源，利用遥感和GIS 手段，提取了长江三角洲地区5 个时相(1979 年、1990 年、1995 年、2000 年、2005 年) 城市用地信息，分析了城市用地扩展速度、扩展强度、空间结构的变化特征，进而探讨了长江三角洲1979 年以来的城市空间生长过程。结果表明：① 1979 年以来，长江三角洲城市用地增长呈明显的加快趋势，城市用地总体扩展强度也表现为不断提高。不同行政等级城市用地的扩展强度表现为直辖市> 地级市> 副省级市> 县(县级市)。② 长江三角洲城市用地空间结构的分维和稳定性特征具有一定的波动性。城市用地的空间结构特征与城市用地增长过程和发展阶段具有一定的联系。③ 长江三角洲城市生长表现出“一核二带”、“二核三带”、“四核四带”和“五核五带”的空间轨迹。

2011

0.0

2.937

. 2011, 66(4):446-456

Urban spatial expansion process, pattern and mechanismin Yangtze River Delta

1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China; 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

The investigation of the process, pattern and mechanism of urban spatial expansion has become an effective method to recognize the stages of urbanization and explore the laws of urban development as the direct result of urbanization to geographic space is the spatial expansion of cities. Based on the satellite imageries data including Landsat TM or ETM, IRS-P6 of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 1980 to 2007, this article, starting from the characteristics of urban spatial heterogeneity and spatial association, revealed quantificationally the diversity of urban expansion, the heterogeneity of spatial organization and the spatial evolution of "hot spot" areas, with the help of lacunarity index, fractal dimensions, expansion intensity index, expansion speed index as well as spatial association model,. The conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Since the 1980s, although central cities have dominated the process of regional expansion, this evolution still follows the law that "small scale agglomeration, large scale dispersion". (2) Along the Z-shaped axes, urban growth has experienced three stages, namely point-axis expansion, adhesions-type growth and spread expansion. In addition, an obvious regional integration was observed. (3) The gathering role of "hot spot" areas has been diminished, and areas along the Shanghai-Nanjing, Shanghai-Hangzhou, Hangzhou-Ningbo highways and the Yangtze River have become core areas that propel regional socio-economic development in YRD. (4) The driven forces varied in different development stages. It is the combination of economic globalization and regional urbanization that dominates the regionalization of the YRD.

城镇空间扩展是城市化作用于地理空间的直接结果，揭示城镇空间扩展过程、格局及机制已成为识别城镇发展阶段、认知城镇发展规律的有效手段。基于长江三角洲地区多时相卫星遥感影像数据，以城镇用地扩展空间分异与关联特征为切入点，利用间隙度指数、分形维数、扩展强度指数、扩展速度指数和空间关联模型，定量揭示了区域城镇空间扩展特征的多样性、空间组织异质性和“热点区”格局演化。结果表明：20 世纪80 年代以来，长三角洲地区城镇空间扩展在以中心城市集聚为主导的过程中，遵循“小集聚，大分散”的特点，围绕“Z”形区域发展轴线，大致经历了点轴扩展、沾粘式增长和蔓延扩张的过程，区域融合现象凸显；空间扩展的“热点区”格局不断演化，“热点区”的核心集聚作用在减弱，沪宁沿线、沪杭沿线、杭甬沿线和沿江地区成为驱动长三角城镇社会经济发展的核心区；同时，在城镇空间扩展的不同阶段，驱动机制有所差异，经济全球化和区域城市化推动着长三角城镇空间一体化进程。

2004

0.0

... 已有的研究主要集中于城市蔓延及其生态环境效应^[20~22]、城镇化进程中速度过快、土地城镇化快于人口城镇化等^[23,24],而基于非协调性视角量化城市空间扩展合理性在国内外现有研究中可以说是首例 ...

2014

0.0

1999

0.0

2005

0.0

0.5646

. 2005, (8):30-33

Urbanization rate is not the sooner the better

一、我国城镇化的发展态势要正确预测我国未来城镇人口和城镇化水平的增长,首先要正确评价现阶段我国城镇化的状况,建立一个反映实际的预测基础.

2014

0.907

0.8244

. 2014, 24(4):612-630 DOI:10.1007/s11442-014-1109-z

Spatial differences and multi-mechanism of carbon footprint based on GWR model in provincial China

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China

Global warming has been one of the major concerns behind the world's high-speed economic growth. How to implement the coordinated development of the carbon footprint and the economy will be the core issue of the world's economic and social development, as well as the heated debate of the research at home and abroad in recent years. Based on the energy consumption, integrated with the "Top-Down" life cycle approach and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, this paper analyzed the spatial differences and multi-mechanism of carbon footprint in provincial China in 2010. Firstly, this study calculated the amount of carbon footprint of each province using "Top-Down" life cycle approach and found that there were significant differences of carbon footprint and per capita carbon footprint in provincial China. The provinces with higher carbon footprint, mainly located in northern China, have large economic scales; the provinces with higher per capita carbon footprint are mainly distributed in central cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and energy-rich regions and heavy chemical bases. Secondly, with the aid of GIS and spatial analysis model (GWR model), this paper had unfolded that the expansion of economic scale is the main driver of the rapid growth of carbon footprint. The growth of population and urbanization also acted as promoting factors for the increase of the carbon footprint. Energy structure had no considerable promoting effect for the increase of the carbon footprint. Improving energy efficiency is the most important factor to inhibit the growing carbon footprint. Thirdly, developing low-carbon economies and low-carbon industries, as well as advocating low-carbon city construction and improving carbon efficiency would be the primary approaches to inhibit the rapid growth of carbon footprint. Moderately controlling the economic scale and population size would also be required to alleviate carbon footprint. Meanwhile, environmental protection and construction of low-carbon cities would evoke extensive attention in the process of urbanization.

2012

0.0

0.7654

... 如何协调好经济发展用地现实诉求与人多地少的基本国情是当前我国可持续发展研究中亟待解决的关键性问题之一^[25] ...

... ）三大类,文中选用非农产值、地方财政税收来代表社会经济发展水平,选取非农人口表征城镇人口规模,社会非农化指数^[25]来代表社会功能属性 ...

2014

0.0

1.388

. 2014, 29(10):1 186-1 196 DOI:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.10.1186

Study on the correlation between ecological risk due to natural disaster and landscape pattern-process: Review and prospect

Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China

With the continuously accelerating urbanization process in China, the potential threat on urban ecological security, which is caused by natural disasters, is growing. It is acknowledged that the origin and solving of urban ecoenvironmental problems are significantly influenced by the quantitative structure and spatial patterns of urban landscape. The development of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) nowadays also shows that it is a direction for the ERA at the regional scale to take researches based on landscape patternprocess. In this study, firstly, the evaluation of urban ecological risk due to single or multiple natural disasters was reviewed, and the characteristics of the ERA in single type disasters and multisource disasters were discussed; secondly, the important role of uncertainty analysis at different landscape scales was emphasized; thirdly, the relationships among natural disasters, ecological risks and landscape patternprocess in urban area were analyzed, and the main methods for ERA at landscape or regional scale were listed; fourthly, the key issues of scenario analysis in natural disaster derived ERA at landscape scale were described. After reviewing the distinguished studies on natural disaster derived ERA for both at home and abroad, according to the deficiency in the numerous studies at present, we suggest three research directions should be further developed: ① to analyze the correlations among urban landscape patterns, natural disasters and associated ecological risks; ② to quantify the uncertainty based on landscape differences in the temporal or spatial scale; ③ to build the integrated model and simulate the scenarios for urban natural disasters derived ERA based on landscape patterns. Then, these three directions will help to the studies of constructing the optimization schemes on urban landscape patterns or the prevention strategies for urban natural disasters as well as associated ecological risks.

随着当前中国城市化进程的不断加速,自然灾害对城市生态安全的潜在威胁日趋受到关注。城市景观结构和空间形态影响着城市生态环境问题的产生和解决途径,基于景观格局—过程的城市/区域自然灾害生态风险评价成为城市生态风险及可持续研究的重要方向。在明晰城市自然灾害生态风险基本概念内涵及单一、综合自然灾害作用下城市生态风险评价研究进展的基础上,系统梳理了城市地域自然灾害、生态风险与景观格局—过程之间的逻辑关联,综合探讨了城市景观格局—过程与自然灾害交互作用及其在城市生态风险评价、自然灾害生态风险防范等重点领域的研究进展,并提出城市景观格局—过程与自然灾害生态风险的相互影响机理探索、景观时空尺度分异与城市自然灾害生态风险的不确定性分析、基于景观格局—过程的城市自然灾害生态风险综合评估模型与情景模拟等三大重大研究趋向,以期实现基于景观优化的城市自然灾害和生态风险防范的研究目标。

... ,也就引发了生态敏感性的凸显,导致各种生态环境问题发生频率和发生规模加大（经济损失剧增）^[26] ...

2010

0.0

2.779

. 2010, 30(6):839-846

Imbalance analysis of rural infrastructure construction in China

1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, Jilin 130024; 2. China Urban Construction Research Institute, Beijing 100029

China's economic development has entered a new stage of the industry promoting agriculture and city driving town. The China government has established a human-oriented development idea and is building a harmonious society to promote regional development. The infrastructure construction in rural areas plays a key role in protecting the rural production and life, but also is important for spiritual needs of rural residents and health needs. Rural infrastructure construction can expand living space of rural residents, bring out resources sharing and optimize the villagers living environment. The paper makes an infrastructure imbalance index model, and analyzed the level of infrastructure construction in the rural area of China's provinces contrast to population in village, area of village, GDP, fixed asset investment and rural investment. The results show that it is different in reigns about infrastructure investment, and the level of rural infrastructure and supply is not absolute high in some economically developed areas. The lack of total investment on infrastructure and the improper use of existing construction funds, it is just a key cause which led to a low level of the rural infrastructure supporting and construction conditions in China. At the same time, the scattered layout villages led to a low construction. On the basis of the construction of rural imbalance in regional infrastructure, the paper analyzed the reasons, referred some experience of rural infrastructure construction abroad, and proposed some suggestions to promote construction of rural infrastructure in China. The suggestions are 1) to strengthen the government's important role in the infrastructure construction of rural areas, to divide the properties of rural infrastructure, and to determine the part of public goods types of infrastructure; 2) to clear the policy focus on supply and services about rural infrastructure, actively to promote the key technology of infrastructure construction and services, and so on.

中国经济发展已进入以工促农、以城带乡的新阶段。国家逐步确立了以人为本构建和谐社会的发展理念,提出了城乡统筹的区域发展战略和加快推进社会主义新农村建设工程。农村基础设施建设是保障农村生产生活的根本需要,也是满足农村居民精神文明与健康的需要,对中国农村居民生活空间扩展、资源共享和生存环境的优化等方面也有重大意义。文章利用基础设施建设不平衡指数模型,分析了中国各省区的农村基础设施建设水平相对于村庄人口、村庄面积、地区生产总值、社会固定资产投资和农村固定资产投资等因素之间的不平衡和滞后性。在此基础上文章还对这种不平衡性和滞后性进行了原因剖析,并借鉴国外农村基础设施的相关建设经验,提出推进中国农村基础设施建设的建议。

... 、经济发展水平、城镇人口规模、社会服务功能属性等城市建设用地投入的匹配状态或程度,采用城市建设用地与各表征要素的区位商（公式1）,结合散点图的点垂距（式2）来判别^[27],并据点垂距D值将其划分为建设用地投入超前型（D远大于#cod#x0201c ...

2013

0.5

0.7263

. 2013, 23(6):729-739 DOI:10.1007/s11769-013-0634-5

Non-coordination in China#cod#x02019;s urbanization: Assessment and affecting factors

Xiu Chunliang 1 ;Liang Zhenming 1 ;Sun Pingjun 1,2 ;Song Wei 2 ;

Urbanization is a comprehensive concept, a trinity process that is based on the interactions and mutual influences among the population urbanization, economic urbanization and space urbanization, in which, people are the central and leading players in this process, while economic activities serve as the driving force and space is the carrier-the physical or material setting as well as the product. So the coordination among these processes is crucial for a country or region's sustainable development. China is experiencing rapid growth of cities and a surge in urban population, with the basic national condition of many people and little land, which calls for a systematic study of the issue of coordinated urbanization from theoretical, methodological and practical perspectives. Based on the concept of urbanization and non-coordination of urbanization, this article built a quantitative method to identify and evaluate the urbanization and non-coordination of urbanization, and made an empirical analysis in China between 2000 and 2008. The results show that the non-coordination overall level of China's urbanization declined during the study period, because population urbanization, economic urbanization, and space urbanization exhibited different trajectories of change. This study also reveals that performance assessment system, household registration system, and urban land expropriation system, etc., are the main affecting factors. At the end, we put forward some suggestions to achieve sustainable development of China's urbanization from the aspects of improving the local government's objective function, implementing the urban planning system, enforcing public participation aspects and so on.

2012

0.0

0.7705

2014

0.0

1.388

. 2014, 29(3):420-428 DOI:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.03.0420

A brief analysis of the situations of the urbanization development and the coordination in arid area

1. The Key Laboratory for Oasis Ecosystem of MOE, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; 2. College of Resource and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; 3. College of Tourism Management, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China

The urbanization is the necessary way for the economic development of a country or region and at the same time one of the important signs to measure the level of economic development in a region. This study focuses on the urbanization in Turpan area to analyze the situation and the coordination of the urbanization development in the oasis of the arid area. By building the index system of urbanization in population, economy, society and ecology system including 16 evaluation index and using the entropy-based weight to determine the weight of each index, with the weighted sum of the Turpan area in 2001-2011, the urbanization of the composite index were quantitatively analyzed. Based on the situation of urbanization, the coordination of the urbanization is calculated and the future development trend on the mathematical models is predicted. On this basis, the development trend of Turpan area in the future is predicted with linear-regression analysis method and trend extrapolation method. Through the above information, the main driving force and the restricting factors of urbanization development in Turpan area can be found. Then, the specific suggestions and opinions in the development of the urbanization in Turpan area, even in the arid area are put forward. The innovation of this study is the study area located in the arid zone in oasis area and then the calculation of the coordination in the urbanization development process. Therefore, a more in-depth understanding of urbanization in the arid zone in oasis area is achieved.

城镇化是一个国家或地区经济发展的必经途径,同时也是衡量某地区经济发展水平的重要标志之一。城镇化进程不仅关系到区域人口、经济和环境的可持续发展,还关系到区域平衡与区域生产效率,以致关系到区域的综合竞争力。利用2001—2011年吐鲁番地区人口、经济、社会和生态方面的相关数据,剖析吐鲁番地区城镇化系统,选出并构建吐鲁番地区人口、经济、社会和生态4个城镇化系统的6个评价指标体系,对指标进行定量分析;计算城镇化4个系统以及城镇化发展水平的综合评价指数及其各系统的协调度,根据各子系统评价指数建立数学模型,分析吐鲁番地区城镇化驱动因子以及制约该地区城镇化进程的影响因素;并推算出吐鲁番地区城镇化的变化和发展趋势。

2013

0.0

0.7705

... 简称气候条件二分法^[31] ...

2001

0.0

0.1788

... 简称地形条件二分法^[32] ...

2012

0.0

2.779

... 与障碍^[33] ...