Key issues on debating about global warming are reviewed：①Does the global warming pause? The answer is not sure. The HadCRUT3 data show that the temperature during 1999-2008 increased only a little (0.07℃/10a), but this decade is still the most warmest one among the last 30 years. However, the data from NASA GISS indicate that the temperature increased in the same period is  higher (0.19℃/10a). Thus, global surface temperature in recent years oscillates on  a warm level. However, natural variability needs to be taken into consideration.②Does the global warming be caused fully by anthropogenic factors? The answer is no. ENSO, solar activity, volcanism, and thermohaline circulation can also exert impact in some extent on climate change, though the morden global warming may be mostly attributed to the increasing of greenhouse effect. However, the natural factors may sometimes overwhelm the anthropogenic effect in the interannual to interdecadal time scale. Specially, the solar activity factor should be given more attention. ③Does the impact of global warming become more evident recently? The answer is yes. New observational datas indicate that the melting speed of glaciers and ice caps and rising speed of sea level in recent years have exceeded the related projections by IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Accordingly, the updated projection of the future sea level also increases.

综合分析了全球气候变暖争议中的3个核心问题：①全球变暖停滞了吗？回答是不一定。虽然根据HadCRUT3序列显示1999—2008年温度增量很小，但是这10年仍是过去30年中最暖的10年。而根据NASA GISS序列，则同期温度增量仍达到0.19℃/10a。目前全球地表气温在一个较暖平台上振荡，不能忽视自然气候变率。②气候变暖完全是由人类活动造成的吗? 回答是否定的。虽然温室效应加剧可能是全球变暖的主要原因。但是，ENSO、太阳活动、火山活动、热盐环流等对全球变暖也有影响，在年代际及年际尺度上其影响甚至有时可能超过人类活动的作用。其中，太阳活动对气候变化的影响是需要重点考虑的因素。③气候变暖的影响有十分明显的迹象吗？回答是肯定的。近几年冰雪圈融化的速率及海平面上升的速率均超过了2007年IPCC第四次评估报告的估计，因此对未来SL上升的预估值也增加了。

The research history of Earth system  can be divided into three stages：Ancient, Great Divide and Great Syncretic stages, and that the Earth System Science will be the mainstream in Earth science research for a long time. In the second section of this paper, the authors search after the reasons of the evolution of Earth system. The results show that "heat" is one of the reasons for the evolution of Earth system, but not the most important one; the impact of gravitation on climatic change can be showed as follows: spherical gravitations－the change of core circulation influences fluctuation of soft flowing sphere by the "hot plume" of Mantle－the effects on  climatic change of terrestrial heat; cosmic magnetic field adjusts the Lorenz in centrosphere by "transformer effect", which influences the evolution of the Earth system. In the third section, the authors point out that outcore circulation is the key factor for leading to the evolution of the Earth system; among heat, force and electromagnetism, the electromagnetism is the most significant factor; the boundary layer between the core and Mantle may be the energy sources to drive the core circulation and Mantle convection.

简略回顾了地球系统的研究历史，指出人类数千年来关于地球系统的研究可分为古代、大分化和大融合 3个阶段，提出"地球系统学"在今后相当一段时间内将是地学研究的主流。第二部分探索地球系统演化的原因，指出："热"是影响地球系统的途径，但地表面受热的准周期性变化不应是整个地球系统演化的主要原因；对于各种引力的准周期性变化对气候变化的影响，归纳出这样一条可能的途径：天体引力→地核环流变化→通过地幔热柱影响软流圈波动变化→通过地热影响气候变化；宇宙磁场通过"变压器效应"调制地核中的Lorenz力，使地核环流变化，进而影响地球系统演化。第三部分提出"外核环流是主导地表系统演化的总枢纽"假说。最后指出：一定要从宇地相互作用中寻求地球系统演化的原因；宇地之间相互联系的热、力和电磁三种物理过程中，"磁"是最值得予以关注的；核幔边界层很可能是推动地核环流和地幔对流的能源区。

Abstract

van Loon et al. [2007. Coupled air–sea response to solar forcing in the Pacific region during northern winter. Journal of Geophysical Research 112, D02108,doi:10.1029/2006JD007378] showed that the Pacific Ocean in northern winter is sensitive to the influence of the sun in its decadal peaks. We extend this study by three solar peaks to a total of 14, examine the response in the stratosphere, and contrast the response to solar forcing to that of cold events (CEs) in the Southern Oscillation. The addition of three solar peak years confirms the earlier results. That is, in solar peak years the sea level pressure (SLP) is, on average, above normal in the Gulf of Alaska and south of the equator, stronger southeast trades blow across the Pacific equator and cause increased upwelling and thus anomalously lower sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Since the effect on the Pacific climate system of solar forcing resembles CEs in the Southern Oscillation, we compare the two and note that, even though their patterns appear similar in some ways, they are particularly different in the stratosphere and are thus due to separate processes. That is, in July–August (JA) of the year leading into January–February (JF) of the solar peak years, the Walker cell expands in the Pacific troposphere, and the stratospheric wind anomalies are westerly below 25 hPa and easterly above, whereas this signal in the stratosphere is absent in CEs. Thus the large-scale east–west tropical atmospheric (Walker) circulation is enhanced, though not to the extent that it is in CEs in the Southern Oscillation, and the solar influence thus appears as a strengthening of the climatological mean regional precipitation maxima in the tropical Pacific. Additionally, CEs have a 1-year evolution, while the response to solar peaks extends across 3 years such that the signal in the Pacific SLP of the solar peaks is similar but weaker in the year leading into the peak and in the year after the peak. The concurrent negative SST anomalies develop during the year before the solar peak, and after the peak the anomalies are still present but are waning. In the stratosphere in solar peaks, the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is amplified when it is in its westerly phase in the lower stratosphere and easterly phase above; and the QBO is suppressed when in its easterly phase below–westerly phase above. Such an association is not evident in CEs.

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pattern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.

Through the spectral analyses of the temperature fields in troposphere of the Southern Hemisphere and gradually filtrating analyses, it is revealed that in the atmosphere temperature field in troposphere of the Southern Hemisphere there has been an obvious insistent rising tendency for more than 50 years. The amplitude of the temperature rising gradually increases from low layer to high layer. The yearly rate of temperature rising at the earth surface layer 1 000 hPa is 013 ℃/a, in the middle part of the troposphere 500 hPa it is 0.019 ℃/a, at the upper part of the troposphere 300 hPa it is 0.036 ℃/a. After the trend variations of the atmosphere temperature field in the Southern Hemisphere are filtrated out, it is revealed that in the temperature field in Southern Hemisphere from the earth surface layer to the top of the troposphere, a very obvious periodic variation, which is in accord with the variation of the sun activity with a period of 22 years, prevails. The periodic variation of solar magnetic field leads in phase slightly. Based on analysis it is known that this is the response of the atmosphere climate system of the troposphere in the Southern Hemisphere to the periodic variations of the solar magnetic field. Further analysis also reveals that from the earth surface layer 1 000 hPa to the top of the troposphere, and then to the middle part of the stratosphere 10 hPa, the oscillation phases with a 22-year period component is basically the same. The periodic amplitudes rapidly increase from low layer to high layer. This indicates that the variation of the solar magnetic field has greater effect on the top layer than on the low layer of the troposphere, and on the stratosphere the effect is the greatest. Among them, the 22-year variation period of the temperature field at the earth surface layer 1 000 hPa appears only after the trend variations and the 11-year period are filtrated out. Therefore, the effect of periodic variation of the solar magnetic field on the climate at the earth surface layer is comparatively small, and is often covered up. In the temperature field of the earth surface layer 1 000 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere, after the trend variations are filtrated out, a very obvious periodic variation, which is in accord with the variation of the sun activity with a period of 22 years, appears. Based on analysis it is known that this is the response of the atmosphere climate system of the troposphere in the Southern Hemisphere to the 11-year periodic variations of the solar activity. In the temperature field of the upper layer 300 hPa of the troposphere, after the trend variations and the 22-year period are filtrated out, the 11-year variation period also appears. But for the middle part of the troposphere 500 hPa there is no such case. This tells us that the 11-year period of the solar activity has the greatest effect on the atmosphere climate at the earth surface layer 1 000 hPa, and the effect at the middle and upper layers is weaker.

通过南半球对流层温度场谱分析和逐次滤波分析发现，南半球对流层大气温度场半个多世纪以来呈现明显的持续升温趋势，升温幅度由低层到高层逐步增加，其中地面层1 000 hPa年升温率为0.013℃/a，对流层中部500 hPa年升温率为0.019℃/ a，对流层上部300 hPa年升温率为0.036℃/ a；滤除南半球大气温度场的趋势变化，发现南半球大气温度场从地面层直至对流层顶广泛盛行着十分显著的与太阳磁场磁性22年周期变化相一致的变化周期。太阳磁场磁性周期变化趋势略有超前，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳磁场周期性变化的响应。进一步分析还发现，南半球从地面层1 000 hPa到对流层顶，再到平流层中部10 hPa各层次大气温度变化22年周期分量振荡位相基本一致，周期振幅由低层到高层迅速增大，说明太阳磁场变化对对流层高层比低层影响大，对平流层影响更大。其中地面层1 000 hPa温度场的22年变化周期是在滤除趋势变化和11年周期之后才显现出来的，所以太阳磁场磁性周期变化对地面层气候的影响较小并且经常处于被掩盖状态；南半球地面层1 000 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化之后显示出十分显著的与太阳活动11年周期相一致的变化周期，分析认为，这是南半球对流层大气气候系统对太阳活动11周期性变化的响应。对流层上层300 hPa温度场滤除趋势变化和22年周期之后也显示出11年变化周期，而对流层中部500 hPa则无此周期反应，说明太阳活动11年周期对地面层1 000 hPa大气气候影响最明显，对流层中上层影响较弱。

Abstract

The availability of global gridded precipitation and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data after 1978 makes possible an investigation of the influence of the decadal solar oscillation in the tropics during three solar maxima and two solar minima. The NCEP/NCAR reanalyses starting in the 1950s allows the inclusion of an additional two solar maxima and minima to look for consistency of response across a longer time period. In the northern summer (July–August), the major climatological tropical precipitation maxima are intensified in solar maxima compared to solar minima during the period 1979–2002. The regions of this enhanced climatological precipitation extend from the Indian monsoon to the West Pacific oceanic warm pool and farther eastwards in the Intertropical Convergence Zone of the North Pacific and North American Monsoon, to the tropical Atlantic and greater rainfall over the Sahel and central Africa. The differences between solar maxima and minima in the zonal mean temperature through the depth of the troposphere, OLR, tropospheric vertical motion, and tropopause temperature are consistent with the differences in the rainfall. The upward vertical motion is stronger in regions of enhanced tropical precipitation, tropospheric temperatures are higher, tropopause temperatures are lower, and the OLR is reduced due to higher, colder cloud tops over the areas of deeper convective rainfall in the solar maxima than in the minima. These differences between the extremes of the solar cycle suggest that an increase in solar forcing intensifies the Hadley and Walker circulations, with greater solar forcing resulting in strengthened regional climatological tropical precipitation regimes. These effects are as strong or even more pronounced when warm and cold extremes in the Southern Oscillation are removed from the analyses. Additionally, lower stratospheric temperatures and geopotential heights are higher with greater solar forcing suggesting ozone interactions with solar forcing in the upper stratosphere.

Abstract

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more “summer-like” when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere.

The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GCM the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant.

Abstract

Daily temperature and pressure series from 55 European meteorological stations covering the 20th century are analyzed. The overall temperature mean displays a sharp minimum near 1940 and a step-like jump near 1987. We evaluate the evolution of disturbances of these series using mean squared inter-annual variations and “lifetimes”. The decadal to secular evolutions of solar activity and temperature disturbances display similar signatures over the 20th century. Because of heterogeneity of the climate system response to solar forcing, regional and seasonal approaches are key to successful identification of these signatures. Most of the solar response is governed by the winter months, as best seen near the Atlantic Ocean. Intensities of disturbances vary by factors in excess of 2, underlining a role for the Sun as a significant forcing factor of European atmospheric variations. We speculate about the possible origin of these solar signatures. The last figure of the paper exemplifies its main results.

Abstract

We analyze the longest temperature series from Prague, Bologna and Uccle. We partition daily minimum and maximum temperatures and their differences in two subsets as a function of high vs low solar activity, using the superimposed epochs method. Differences display patterns with significant amplitudes and time constants ∼3 months. These are recognized in all stations and are stable against a change in the analyzed period. Amplitude of variations is ∼1 °C. Differences between average annual values corresponding to high vs low activity periods are also ∼1 °C. Solar activity may account for these long-term temperature variations. These variations also present local characteristics, which may render identification of a global correlation delicate. We discuss possible physical mechanisms by which solar variation could force climate changes (e.g. through solar activity itself, the EUV part of the solar flux, cosmic rays, the downward ionosphere-earth current density, etc.).

利用一个气候系统模式,对过去千年气候演变的3个特征期——中世纪暖期、小冰期和20世纪增暖期,进行了系列平衡态模拟和瞬变强迫模拟试验,比较了3个特征期气候的异同点.结果表明:中世纪暖期的暖信号在除北太平洋中纬度以外的全球大部分地区普遍存在,但自然增暖的幅度整体上较20世纪要弱;北半球中高纬地区的增温幅度大于南半球.小冰期变冷近乎是全球性的,在欧亚大陆及高纬地区尤为显著,变冷极大值位于北极地区的表层.中世纪暖期和20世纪温度变化的垂直结构表现出类似特征,最强增温都出现在热带对流层中上层的200~300hPa.与暖期不同,小冰期的变冷主要表现为极地强化.模拟结果与重建资料的比较表明,模式对暖期温度变化的模拟能力强于冷期,对中低纬地区温度变化的模拟能力强于高纬地区.东亚夏季风的年际变率特征受背景气候态的影响不大,不同特征期年际变率的降水距平型近乎相同,但是主导周期变化显著,东亚夏季风的准两年振荡现象在暖期更容易出现,在冷期则不明显.在百年尺度上,有效太阳辐射外强迫变化驱动的季风变化外部模态由大尺度海陆热力对比的变化决定,在110°E以东降水呈现出“南北同号”的特征,这与伴随耦合系统内部变率出现的“南北反号”的降水距平型不同.

Abstract

The climate system is excited by changes in the solar forcing caused by two effects: (a) by variations of the solar radiation caused by dynamical processes within the Sun, and (b) by changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth around the Sun.

Numerical simulations with a three-dimensional coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model have been performed to investigate the sensitivity of the climate system to both kinds of changes in the forcing.

The climate system responds to the (relatively) short term variations of the solar output variations with changes in the surface temperature of up to 2 K, but without any noticeable long lasting effect. The response to the changes in the orbital parameters is more dramatic: dependent if the orbital parameters correspond to the Eemian (a warm phase at around 125 kyr BP) or the one at 115 kyr BP (the onset of the last ice age), the simulation produces a warm state or the initiation of a cold climate. For the Eemian, the simulated climate agrees with the temperature distribution derived from pollen data. For the glacial inception, the model gradually builds up a large snow cover in the northern part of North America.

It was traditionally thought that the stratosphere has little influence on the troposphere. However, recent observational studies show that such a downward influence is significant and important. Especially, recent studies on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) greatly advanced the research in this problem. It is found that stratospheric anomalies can have important influences on tropospheric weather systems, that is, in winter negative AO anomalies in the stratosphere can trigger extremely cold weather events in the midlatitude troposphere, whereas positive stratospheric AO anomalies can lead to warm weather. It is even suggested that signals of stratospheric anomalies can be used to predict tropospheric weather in Northern-Hemisphere winter time, which can expand the time scale of weather prediction up to 3 weeks. The present paper reviews the progress in this research area, explains the physical mechanisms of stratospheric influences on tropospheric weather systems, summarizes controversial points of views, and suggests some problems for future research.

人们传统上认为大气平流层很少能对对流层产生重要影响，但是，最近几年的观测研究表明这种自上而下的影响是显著的和非常重要的,特别地，近几年关于北极涛动的研究极大推动了这一问题的研究进展。这方面的研究发现平流层异常可以对对流层天气系统产生重要影响，也就是冬季平流层北极涛动（AO）的负异常可以诱发中高纬度地区寒潮天气，而AO的正异常则导致中高纬度地区的温暖晴朗天气。由于观测分析表明平流层AO的异常信号总是领先对流层AO异常，一些学者甚至建议冬季北半球平流层的异常信号可以作为预报对流层天气变化的先行指标，并可以把对流层天气预报的时限提高到3个星期以上。综述这一领域在最近几年的研究进展、阐述平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的物理机制和总结各种不同的学术观点，并对将来研究中应注意的问题提出了建议。

Reports of a variety of long-term climatological and short-term meteorological responses to solar activity indicate that solar activity controls these changes. There is the need for the mechanism of effect of solar activity on the climate change. The correlations of various climate and meteorological parameters, such as the cloud coverage, with space weather events due to solar activity , such as the variation of the galatic cosmic ray flux (GCR), on a wide range of time scales have been published According to these correlations, the mechanism of effect of solar activity on the climate, called spaceweather mechanism, has been suggested, which is including two sub-mechanisms:(1) the ion mediated nuclear formation theory (IMN theory);(2) Spaceweather-global circuit-cloud microphysics theory (inhereto Tinsley Theory). In this paper we review the progresses of the statistic research on correlation between spaceweather events and meterological and climatical parametersand the proceeding of the work on mechanism of the space-weather effect theory, which includes the proceeding in the ion mediate nuclei formation theory and the Tinsley theory. Although there are lots of work which have been done in the past ten years and the theories grow fast. However there are still some observation and modeling work need to be improved.

大量研究表明，从数小时到十年、百年时间尺度上的天气、气候变化受太阳活动影响显著。近年来，全球云量、北大西洋冬季气旋等气候、气象要素与银河宇宙射线通量变化、太阳能量粒子事件等空间天气事件显著的统计相关被陆续发现。在此基础上，提出太阳活动驱动气候变化空间天气机制，其基本观点是：空间天气事件通过改变云物理特性影响气象、气候，其核心是：太阳活动造成的空间天气事件与云微物理过程的联系，目前空间天气理论分化为离子诱导成核机制和全球大气电路—静电云微物理机制（简称Tinsley机制）。主要回顾和总结了近年来空间天气机制研究的发展，包括观测与理论，取得的成果，并对其未来的发展提出展望。