Advances in Earth Science ›› 2007, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (6): 605-611. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.06.0605

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Changes of Global Ecosystem Services in the Future under the Four MA Scenarios

ZHANG Yong-min 1, ZHAO Shi-dong 2   

  1. 1.Department of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan University of Finance and Economics, Zhengzhou 450002,China; 2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China
  • Received:2007-05-08 Revised:2007-05-18 Online:2007-06-10 Published:2007-06-10

ZHANG Yong-min, ZHAO Shi-dong. Changes of Global Ecosystem Services in the Future under the Four MA Scenarios[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(6): 605-611.

Based on the four MA scenarios, plausible changes of global ecosystem services during the first half of the 21 st century were assessed in the report of MA's scenarios working group. Overall, the main results are as follows: ① In Order from Strength scenario, provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services are all in worse condition in 2050 than they are today; ② In Adapting Mosaic scenario, provisioning, regulating and cultural ecosystem services get improved in 2050; ③ In Global Orchestration scenario, provisioning ecosystem services are improved while the others are degraded in 2050; ④ In TechnoGarden scenario, cultural ecosystem services are degraded while provisioning and regulating services are enhanced in 2050; ⑤ Trade offs exist in all of the MA scenarios between provisioning services and other services, that is, increasing the flow of provisioning services often leads to reductions in supporting, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services; ⑥ Differences often exist in the extent of ecosystem services changes between industrial and developing countries.

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