Advances in Earth Science ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 420-434. doi: 10.11867/j. issn. 1001-8166.2017.04.0420

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Construction of Statistical-Dynamic Prediction Model for the Asian-Australian Summer Monsoon Based on the Predictable Mode Analysis Method and Assessment of Its Predictive Skills

Qian Sun 1( ), Bo Wu 2, *( ), Tianjun Zhou 2, 3   

  1. 1. College of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China
    2.LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2016-11-07 Revised:2017-01-28 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-04-20
  • Contact: Bo Wu E-mail:sunqiancuit@163.com;wubo@mail.iap.ac.cn
  • About author:

    First author:Sun Qian(1992-), female, Leshan City, Sichuan Province, Master student. Research areas include climate prediction.E-mail:sunqiancuit@163.com

    *Corresponding author:Wu Bo(1982-),male,Hefei City,Anhui Province,Associate professor. Research areas include climate dynamics and climate modeling.E-mail:wubo@mail.iap.ac.cn

  • Supported by:
    Foundation item:Project supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) “Development and research of ensemble decadal climate prediction system based on global climate models FGOALS-s, CAMS and CESM”(No.GYHY201506012);The National Natural Science Foundation of China“Research on the decadal climate prediction in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere summer with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as the main predictor”(No.41675089)

Qian Sun, Bo Wu, Tianjun Zhou. Construction of Statistical-Dynamic Prediction Model for the Asian-Australian Summer Monsoon Based on the Predictable Mode Analysis Method and Assessment of Its Predictive Skills[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2017, 32(4): 420-434.

Due to the limitations of model performances, the predictive skills of current climate models for the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation are still poor. The prediction based on the combination of statistical and dynamic approaches is an effective way to improve the predictive skills. We used such method to identify the predictable modes of the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation with clear physical interpretation from the historical observational data. Then we combined the principal components time series of these modes predicted by the coupled models, which is derived from the seasonal prediction experiments in the ENSEMBLES project, and the corresponding spatial patterns derived from the above observational analysis to reconstruct the precipitation field. These formed a statistical-dynamic seasonal prediction model for the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation. We analyzed the predictive skills of the model at 1-, 4-and 7-month leads. The result shows that the forecast skills of the statistical-dynamic prediction model are higher than those of the simple dynamic predictions. In addition, the predictive skills of the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) mean are superior to those of any individual models. Therefore, it is very necessary to implement multi-model ensemble prediction for the monsoon precipitation.

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