气候变化对陆地水循环影响研究的问题

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.01.0115

地球科学进展 ›› 2004, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (1): 115 -119. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.01.0115

刘春蓁

水利部水利信息中心，北京 100053

收稿日期:2003-02-23 修回日期:2003-07-03 出版日期:2004-01-20
通讯作者: 刘春蓁（1933-），女，湖北汉阳人，教授级高工，主要从事气候变化对水文水资源影响研究. E-mail:E-mail:liucz@mwr.gov.cn

THE ISSUES IN THE IMPACT STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE TERRESTRIAL HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE

LIU Chunzhen

Water Information Center, MWR, Beijing 100053,China

Received:2003-02-23 Revised:2003-07-03 Online:2004-01-20 Published:2004-02-01

简要地回顾了现存的由气候情景驱动水文模型研究气候变化对陆地水循环影响的方法。指出这种单向连接方法很难将气候变暖及人类活动引起的陆地水循环变化反馈给大气。这既影响对降雨的预测精度，又不能正确地描写陆地水循环的变化。近10年来气候学家对大气环流模型中陆面过程模型的改进以及水文气候学家对大尺度水文模型研究所取得的进展，展现了它们之间的互补性，以及未来用水文-气候耦合模型方法研究气候变化与人类活动对陆地水循环影响及水资源预测的可能性。

关键词: 气候变化, 人类活动, 陆-气相互作用, 陆地水循环

The terrestrial branch of water cycle is mainly influenced by the climate and human activities, the interaction between these elements and hydrological process as well. With population growth and socio-economic development, the impact of human activities such as land use change, water use consumption and ecosystem environment change will be increasing. Recently, in some river basins located in North China, the impact of human activities such as groundwater overexploitation, irrigation loss and evaporation from reservoirs is exceeding the impact of climate variability and climate warming on terrestrial hydrological cycle. The changing terrestrial hydrological cycle leads to decreasing runoff in short and decadal time scale. The water and heat exchanges between land and atmosphere created by either nature or anthropogenic sources are important not only to atmosphere, but also bringing impact to the outcomes of soil moisture, evaporation and runoff directly. Having reviewed the above mentioned, the paper discussed the weakness of ongoing method in the study of climate change impact on hydrological cycle. Being one way from outputs of GCM as the climatic scenarios input to the hydrological model, the change in terrestrial hydrological cycle caused by climate warming and human activities can hardly be involved in the feedback to atmosphere. Considering the large contribution of land surface evaporation in precipitation over land, it thus leads to inaccurate rainfall prediction and incorrect describing the change of land surface hydrological cycle as well. Nowadays, both climatologists and hydrologists from geophysical science group have gained successfully in the study on land surface model in GCM and macroscale hydrological models respectively, which are two aspects of compensation each to other in describing the land surface hydrological cycle and will provide the possibility of coupled hydro-climate model in the future study of climate change impact. The human activities make additional difficulties to land surface parameterization. How to improve the description of terrestrial hydrological cycle in the changing environment from climate warming and intensive human activities is still the challenge for coupled hydrology climate models.

中图分类号:

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