<strong>1736</strong>—
  <strong>1911</strong>年华北饥荒的时空分布及其与气候、灾害、收成的关系

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.33

基于历史文献中的饥荒记载，提取1736—1911年176年华北境内饥荒事件2 950县次，根据饥荒严重程度等级，以加权平均法重建逐年饥荒指数序列，将其与同期气候变化、水旱灾害和粮食收成情况进行时空对比，结论如下：温度、降水与歉收、饥荒呈显著负相关，旱灾与歉收、饥荒的相关关系较水灾更为显著；回归分析显示歉收和饥荒对于旱灾的敏感性随清朝统治的衰落急剧上升，反映有效的社会应对有利于减少歉收和饥荒发生；核密度分析显示饥荒多发区主要分布在汾河谷地、河南中南部以及冀鲁豫交界处，与旱灾、歉收的空间对应关系较好，但河南中南部饥荒多发还可能与当地特殊的社会经济脆弱性有关。研究有助于深化对历史时期气候变化社会经济影响机制的科学认识，未来应进一步探讨历史饥荒的发生机制，并完善气候变化影响在社会系统中的传递路径。

关键词: 历史气候变化, 水旱灾害, 粮食收成, 饥荒, 时空分布, 华北

Based on records on famine kept in historical documents, 2950 famine events counted with “county time” in North China during 1736-1911 were collected, and annual famine index series in North China was reconstructed using weighted average method according to the severity of famine. Spatio-temporal distribution of famine and its relationship with climate, disaster and harvest was analyzed. The research shows that variation of temperature and precipitation has significant negative correlation with poor harvest and famine. The drought has a more significant correlation with harvest and famine than flood. In 1736-1795 when was at the peak of the Qing dynasty, the sensitivity of poor harvest and famine to drought was significantly lower than in 1796-1911 when was in decline, because effective social response to disaster could reduce the risk of poor harvest and famine. Using the kernel density estimation method, three main high risk areas of famine were indentified: Fen River Valley in south Shanxi Province, south-central He'nan Province, and the junction of Hebei, Shandong and He'nan Province. In general, there is significant corresponding relationship between the spatial distribution of drought, poor harvest and famine, however, abnormally high probability of famine in south-central He'nan Province might be related to local special socio-economic vulnerability. This study would enhance our understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and socioeconomic system. Further research would focus on the mechanism by which famine originated in the past, and the pathway through which climatic impacts were delivered in human society.

Key words: Historical climate change, Flood/drought, Grain harvest, Famine, Spatio-temporal distribution, North China.

中图分类号:

P467

表1 基于语义差异的饥荒等级划分标准

Table 1 Quantification of famine grade based on semantic differential method

等级	1	2	3
原始描述	饥、荒、赈（给种籽）、民艰于食（乏食）、路有流民等	大饥、大荒（奇荒）、民不聊生（民不堪命、饥民众多）、人食树皮（草根、观音土）、民有菜色（饥色）、流离（较大规模的迁徙）、流亡载道（哀鸿遍野、十室九空）、卖儿鬻女、聚众抢夺（吃大户、求赈）、间有死者（死者无几）	人相食、饿死者无算（转沟壑者无算、瘗尸无算、死者枕藉）、死××人（有具体数字）、饿死者十之四五（二三、七八）、亘古（近古、百余年）未见此奇荒
严重程度判断	发生粮食短缺，民众节衣缩食、政府发放赈济、零星的人口迁徙	普遍而严重的饥荒，区内所有人口都受到波及，开始造成零星的人口死亡与一定程度的社会秩序混乱，更多的人则通过寻找代食品、跨区迁徙以至卖儿鬻女来求得生存	最重要的关键词是人相食，代表饥荒已经发展到极端严重程度，造成大量人口损失以及伦理道德、社会秩序的崩溃
记录县次	1 593	1 012	345

表1 基于语义差异的饥荒等级划分标准

Table 1 Quantification of famine grade based on semantic differential method

等级	1	2	3
原始描述	饥、荒、赈（给种籽）、民艰于食（乏食）、路有流民等	大饥、大荒（奇荒）、民不聊生（民不堪命、饥民众多）、人食树皮（草根、观音土）、民有菜色（饥色）、流离（较大规模的迁徙）、流亡载道（哀鸿遍野、十室九空）、卖儿鬻女、聚众抢夺（吃大户、求赈）、间有死者（死者无几）	人相食、饿死者无算（转沟壑者无算、瘗尸无算、死者枕藉）、死××人（有具体数字）、饿死者十之四五（二三、七八）、亘古（近古、百余年）未见此奇荒
严重程度判断	发生粮食短缺，民众节衣缩食、政府发放赈济、零星的人口迁徙	普遍而严重的饥荒，区内所有人口都受到波及，开始造成零星的人口死亡与一定程度的社会秩序混乱，更多的人则通过寻找代食品、跨区迁徙以至卖儿鬻女来求得生存	最重要的关键词是人相食，代表饥荒已经发展到极端严重程度，造成大量人口损失以及伦理道德、社会秩序的崩溃
记录县次	1 593	1 012	345

图1 1736—1911年华北的气候变化、水旱灾害、粮食收成与饥荒指数序列
(a) 华北冬半年冬温距平（分辨率5年） ^{[

25
]}；(b) 黄河中下游地区逐年降水量 ^{[

17
]}；(c) 华北逐年水灾指数；(d) 华北逐年旱灾指数；(e) 华北逐年秋粮歉收指数 ^{[

18
]}；(f) 华北逐年饥荒指数；

①

④

阴影指示典型年份或极端事件

Fig.1 Annual famine index and its relationship with climate change, flood/drought, harvest in North China from 1736 to 1911
(a) 5-year temperature anomaly of winter half year in North China ^{[

25
]}; (b) Annual precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River ^{[

17
]}; (c) Annual flood index in North China; (d) Annual drought index in North China; (e) Annual poor autumn harvest index in North China ^{[

18
]}; (f) Annual famine index in North China;The shadow

①

④

correspond with typical years or extreme events

①

④

阴影指示典型年份或极端事件

①

④

correspond with typical years or extreme events

表2 1736— 1911年华北气候、灾害与收成、饥荒的相关性

Table 2 Correlation coefficients between climate, disaster, harvest and famine in North China from 1736 to 1911

相关系数	5年均值		逐年
相关系数	歉收指数	饥荒指数	歉收指数	饥荒指数
冬温距平	-0.45^**	-0.56^**	-	-
年降水量	-	-	-0.44^**	-0.45^**
水灾指数	-	-	-0.05	-0.17^*
旱灾指数	-	-	0.71^**	0.69^**
歉收指数	-	-	-	0.88^**

表2 1736— 1911年华北气候、灾害与收成、饥荒的相关性

Table 2 Correlation coefficients between climate, disaster, harvest and famine in North China from 1736 to 1911

相关系数	5年均值		逐年
相关系数	歉收指数	饥荒指数	歉收指数	饥荒指数
冬温距平	-0.45^**	-0.56^**	-	-
年降水量	-	-	-0.44^**	-0.45^**
水灾指数	-	-	-0.05	-0.17^*
旱灾指数	-	-	0.71^**	0.69^**
歉收指数	-	-	-	0.88^**

表3 不同时段水旱灾害与收成、饥荒的相关性

Table 3 Correlation coefficients between flood, drought, harvest and famine in different periods

相关系数	1736—1795年		1796—1850年		1851—1911年
相关系数	歉收指数	饥荒指数	歉收指数	饥荒指数	歉收指数	饥荒指数
水灾指数	0.20	-0.01	-0.03	-0.19	-0.20	-0.25
旱灾指数	0.60^**	0.60^**	0.77^**	0.80^**	0.77^**	0.71^**
歉收指数	-	0.75^**	-	0.92^**	-	0.91^**

表3 不同时段水旱灾害与收成、饥荒的相关性

Table 3 Correlation coefficients between flood, drought, harvest and famine in different periods

相关系数	1736—1795年		1796—1850年		1851—1911年
相关系数	歉收指数	饥荒指数	歉收指数	饥荒指数	歉收指数	饥荒指数
水灾指数	0.20	-0.01	-0.03	-0.19	-0.20	-0.25
旱灾指数	0.60^**	0.60^**	0.77^**	0.80^**	0.77^**	0.71^**
歉收指数	-	0.75^**	-	0.92^**	-	0.91^**

图2 1736—1911年华北水旱灾害、歉收、饥荒核密度分布

Fig.2 Kernel density distribution of flood, drought, poor harvest and famine in North China from 1736 to 1911

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摘要

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Famine and Its Relationship with Climate, Disaster, Harvest in North China During 1736-1911