地球科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 209 -217. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.020

可持续发展研究 上一篇    

生计脆弱性概念、分析框架与评价方法
童磊( ),郑珂,苏飞( )   
  1. 浙江工商大学 旅游与城乡规划学院,浙江 杭州 310018
  • 收稿日期:2019-12-12 修回日期:2020-01-23 出版日期:2020-02-10
  • 通讯作者: 苏飞 E-mail:zjutonglei@126.com;suf910@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    浙江省高校重大人文社科攻关计划“面向公共安全的城市社会脆弱性分异特征及调控对策研究”(2018QN027)

Concept, Analytical Framework and Assessment Method of Livelihood Vulnerability

Lei Tong( ),Ke Zheng,Fei Su( )   

  1. School of Tourism and Urban-rural Planning, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China
  • Received:2019-12-12 Revised:2020-01-23 Online:2020-02-10 Published:2020-03-24
  • Contact: Fei Su E-mail:zjutonglei@126.com;suf910@163.com
  • About author:Tong Lei (1989-), male, Longyou City, Zhejiang Province, Lecturer. Research areas include urban planning and management. E-mail: zjutonglei@126.com
  • Supported by:
    the Key Humanities and Social Science Program of Higher Education in Zhejiang Province “Research on the differentiation characteristics of urban social vulnerability and its countermeasures facing public safety”(2018QN027)

生计脆弱性研究以群体或个人的生计活动为对象,旨在通过脆弱性研究明确生计风险形成原因与作用机制,以保障生计安全,目前已成为可持续性科学研究的热点领域之一。通过对国内外生计脆弱性研究文献的梳理与解读,对生计脆弱性的概念、分析框架及评价方法进行了总结。已有研究对生计脆弱性概念的理解基本达成共识;尚缺乏从生计脆弱性成因、机制、测度和调控进行集成的分析框架;生计脆弱性形成和调控机理研究仍较为缺乏,生计脆弱性评价视角与指标体系有待完善。未来,应逐步统一生计脆弱性分析框架,深化研究生计脆弱性驱动机制、调控机理与评价方法,促进国家政策与新技术背景下的生计脆弱性研究,为制定相关政策提供科学依据。

Research on the internal factors and mechanism of livelihood vulnerability, which has become one of the hot spots in sustainable scientific field, can improve the level of livelihood security. This paper reviewed the livelihood vulnerability literature from the perspective of concept, analysis framework, assessment methods. Three conclusions were achieved. Firstly, the scholars' understanding of the concept of livelihood vulnerability has reached consensus. Secondly, the existing evaluation method is lack of multiple perspectives, and the selection of the indicator system is not comprehensive enough. Thirdly, the research on the dynamic mechanism and regulation of livelihood vulnerability and the framework of adaptability will still be further needed. Additionally, some suggestions were given in this paper such as establishing a unified concept system and analysis framework for livelihood vulnerability, improving the evaluation index system and deepening the dynamic mechanism and regulation study of livelihood vulnerability in the study of livelihood vulnerability. In the future, we should gradually unify the livelihood vulnerability analysis framework, enhance the study of driving and regulating mechanisms and evaluation methods of the livelihood vulnerability, promote the research of livelihood vulnerability in the context of national policies and new technologies, and provide a scientific basis for the formulation of related policies.

中图分类号: 

图1 人—环境耦合系统分析框架[ 19 ]
Fig.1 Human-environment coupling system analysis framework[ 19 ]
图2 农户生计脆弱性分析框架[ 12 ]
Fig.2 Farmers' livelihood vulnerability analysis framework[ 12 ]
图3 生计脆弱性综合分析框架[ 22 ]
Fig.3 Comprehensive analysis framework for livelihood vulnerability[ 22 ]
表1 生计脆弱性评价方法
Table 1 Method for assessing livelihood vulnerability
评价方法 基本原理 优势与缺点
综合指数法 从生计脆弱性的表现特点、起因等方面建立评价指标体系,利用数理统计等方法得到生计脆弱性指数,来表示评价单元脆弱性程度的大小 该方法的优势为简单易操作,但其在指标选取、权重确定等方面存在一定的主观性,且缺乏要素之间的相互作用机制,在建立跨区域、跨时段的脆弱性指标体系时较困难
函数模型法 多基于敏感性、暴露度、适应能力和恢复力等维度之间的相互关系来构建评估模型,对生计脆弱性水平进行测量 该方法较好地诠释了脆弱性的组成要素及其相互作用的关系,但由于对生计脆弱性构成要素的理解尚未统一,导致该模型的表现形式差异显著
模糊物元评价法 通过选定一个参照状态,计算其与各区域的相似程度来判别各研究区域的相对脆弱性程度 由于不用考虑变量间的相关性问题,该方法可以充分利用原始变量信息,但缺乏科学合理的方法去界定参照单元。此外,评价结果对参照单元选取标准的变化也十分敏感,且评价结果只能反映出较少信息量,难以反映生计脆弱性空间异质性特征及决定因素等方面的信息
模糊认知映射法(Fuzzy Cognitive Map,FCM) 通过捕捉一个基于人的看法与信仰的复杂系统的运作来确定利益相关者的观点,从而估计研究对象的生计脆弱性 该方法不需要大型数据集,注重各要素之间的动态相互作用关系,能够较好地解释生计脆弱性的动态特征。同时,这种方法由于捕捉互联互动而有助于确定利益相关者的观点。但复杂系统中通常存在大量不确定因素,如何减少建模误差仍然是该方法在应用中的难题
BP人工神经网络法 通过划分指标数据区间和评价标准,构建BP神经网络输入输出层和网络拓扑结构,将数据导入经不断学习并修正权值后的网络模型,得出生计脆弱性评价结果 该方法具有较强的非线性映射功能,可高度模拟出各评价指标和指数之间的复杂关系,能够客观反映生计脆弱性特征、程度及其影响因素,但网络结构的选择尚无统一的理论指导,其客观评价对实际情况解释性较差,且BP神经网络自身存在“过拟合”、局部极值等问题
参与式农村评估法(Participatory Rural Appraisal, PRA) 包括直接观察、随机访谈、入户调查、社区会议、问卷调查、半结构访谈等 该方法强调农户的全过程参与,结果更具有可操作性且易于被农户接受,但该方法取得成功的决定因素在于研究者与农户的沟通效果,若处理不当,则难以得到准确完整的信息
表2 生计脆弱性指数计算方法
Table 2 Method for calculating the livelihood vulnerability index
指数名称 公式 说明
生计脆弱性[ 31 ] L I V d = i = 1 7 w M i M d i i = 1 7 w M i L I V d 表示d区的生计脆弱性指数, w M i 表示各主要指标(社会人口概况、生计策略、社会网络、健康、食物、水、自然灾害或气候变异性)的权重,由二级指标的数量决定, M d i 表示各主要指标的值,由二级指标的均值决定
L V I - I P C C d = ( e d - a d ) × S d L V I - I P C C d 表示IPCC脆弱性框架下d区的生计脆弱性指数, e d 表示d区的受灾度, a d 表示d区的适应力, S d 表示d区的敏感度
预期贫困脆弱性[ 41 ] S i t = - l n z P ( l n G i , t + 1 ) d ( l n G i , t + 1 ) i表示家庭,t表示时间,G表示家庭的收入水平,z表示贫困线, S i t 表示家庭it期的脆弱性,也可理解为家庭it+1期时收入水平低于贫困线的概率,P为概率系数
一维贫困脆弱性[ 42 ] V U P i = 1 - E x i α 0 < α < 1 , x i = M i n ( y i , z ) / z VUP表示一维贫困脆弱性,E表示预期值,i表示个体序列,xi表示符合最低标准的程度
多维贫困脆弱性[ 43 ]

V M P i = 1 - E ( j = 1 J γ j x i j ρ ) α ρ

( 0 < α < 1,0 < ρ < 1 ) , x i j = M i n ( y i j , z ) / z , j = 1 J γ j = 1

VMP表示多维贫困脆弱性,E表示预期值,i表示个体序列,j表示维数, x i j 表示第j维度贫困水平, γ j 表示权重,替代弹性 1 / ( 1 - ρ ) 0
脆弱性指数[ 44 ] V α = 1 n i = 1 q ( w 0 - w i w 0 ) α V α 表示脆弱性指数, w i 表示个体的幸福感, w 0 表示脆弱性的幸福感门槛水平,n表示总体个数,q表示脆弱性门槛以上的个体数, α 表示个体按敏感度从低到高排列
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