“一带一路”区域冰冻圈变化及其对水资源的影响

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.002

地球科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 1 -17. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.002

所属专题： “一带一路”绿色发展研究；

综述与评述下一篇

“一带一路”区域冰冻圈变化及其对水资源的影响

康世昌 ^1, ^2, ³(

),郭万钦 ¹,吴通华 ¹,钟歆玥 ⁴(

),陈仁升 ⁵,许民 ¹,陈金雷 ¹,杨瑞敏 ⁶

^1.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730000
^2.中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心，北京 100101
^3.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
^4.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院甘肃省遥感重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730000
^5.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室黑河上游生态—水文试验研究站，甘肃兰州 730000
^6.兰州大学资源环境学院，甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2019-11-12 修回日期:2019-12-15 出版日期:2020-01-20
通讯作者: 钟歆玥 E-mail:shichang.kang@lzb.ac.cn;xyzhong@lzb.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目“冰冻圈与全球变化“(41721091);中国科学院前沿科学重点研究项目“北极冰冻圈变化与可持续发展”(QYZDY-SSW-DQC021)

Cryospheric Changes and Their Impacts on Water Resources in the Belt and Road Regions

Shichang Kang ^1, ^2, ³( ),Wanqin Guo ¹,Tonghua Wu ¹,Xinyue Zhong ⁴( ),Rensheng Chen ⁵,Min Xu ¹,Jinlei Chen ¹,Ruimin Yang ⁶

^1.State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science，Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Lanzhou 730000，China
^2.Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth;Sciences，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100101，China
^3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100049，China
^4.Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province，Northwest Institute of Eco-;Environment and Resources，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Lanzhou 730000，China
^5.Qilian Alpine Ecology;and Hydrology Research Station，Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin，Northwest;Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Lanzhou 730000，China
^6.College of Earth and Environmental Science，Lanzhou University，Lanzhou 730000，China

Received:2019-11-12 Revised:2019-12-15 Online:2020-01-20 Published:2020-02-27
Contact: Xinyue Zhong E-mail:shichang.kang@lzb.ac.cn;xyzhong@lzb.ac.cn
About author:Kang Shichang (1969-), male, Longxi County, Gansu Province, Professor. Research areas include cryosphere and climate change. E-mail: shichang.kang@lzb.ac.cn
Supported by:
the Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China "Cryosphere and climate change"(41721091);The Frontier Science Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences "Cryospheric changes and sustainable development in the Arctic"(QYZDY-SSW-DQC021)

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“一带一路”区域横跨亚洲、欧洲和非洲东部、北部，空间范围大。在全球气候变暖背景下，“一带一路”区域的冰冻圈正在发生快速变化，将对区域水资源、生态系统、北极航道等带来深刻影响。综述了近几十年来“一带一路”沿线和周边区域（包括亚洲、欧洲、北极和非洲等）冰冻圈要素（包括冰川、多年冻土、积雪、海冰、河冰和湖冰）的变化及其对水资源的影响，主要认知为： $①$ 绝大部分冰川面积萎缩、冰川物质平衡处于亏损状态，但存在区域差异； $②$ 多年冻土温度升高，冻土分布下限上升，活动层厚度增大，多年冻土整体处于退化状态； $③$ 积雪范围明显缩减、积雪深度总体呈增加趋势，积雪期缩短，即积雪首日延后、消融期提前，但变化存在显著区域差异； $④$ 北极夏季海冰范围快速减少、厚度减薄，多年冰减少，反映了海冰的快速萎缩，河/湖冰初冰日延后、消融日提前、冰封期缩短； $⑤$ 中国冰川融水径流显著增加，积雪融水和多年冻土退化也在不同程度上增加了流域径流，反映出冰冻圈变化对径流的重要影响。“一带一路”区域冰冻圈萎缩的现状及其对水资源的影响分析，将为应对气候变化和区域可持续发展提供重要科学支撑。

关键词: 一带一路, 冰冻圈变化, 水资源

“Belt and Road” regions include Asia, Europe and eastern and northern Africa, with a wide spatial distribution. The cryosphere is undergoing rapid changes in the Belt and Road regions with global warming, and has an important impact on water resources, ecosystems and Arctic waterways in these regions. This article reviewed recent cryospheric changes and associated impacts on water resources in the Belt and Road regions during the last decades. The main cognitions are as follows: $①$ Most glaciers are shrinking and glacier mass balances are most negative, but there are regional differences in the changes of glaciers. $②$ Global temperature rise has resulted in permafrost degradation, including a rise in permafrost temperature and decreasing permafrost thickness as well as an increase in active layer thickness. $③$ There is a significant decrease in snow cover extent and an increase in snow depth. Snow cover duration has shortened, the onset of snow cover has delayed, and the end of snow cover has advanced. However, there are still obvious regional differences in the changes of snow cover. $④$ Arctic sea ice has declined precipitously in both extent and thickness in summer, and multi-year sea ice has decreased，indicating the precipitous retreat of sea ice. The freeze-up date of some lakes has been delayed, the break-up date has advanced, and the ice cover duration of river/lake ice has significantly shortened. $⑤$ Glacial runoff has increased significantly in China. Snowmelt and permafrost degradation have also increased the basin runoff, which indicates the important impact of cryospheric changes on runoff. This study will provide a baseline and important scientific support for addressing climate change and regional sustainable development.

Key words: The Belt and Road, Cryospheric changes, Water resource

中图分类号:

P343.6

图1 “一带一路”涵盖区冰川分布图（图中数字为RGI分区编号）

Fig.1 Glacier distribution in the Belt and Road areas （the numbers in the figure are RGI partition numbers）

图2 欧亚大陆冰川变化空间分布特征（1975—2005年）

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of variations in glacier in Eurasia from 1975 to 2005

表1 欧亚大陆冰川年均物质平衡特征

Table 1 Annual mean glacier mass balances in Eurasia

RGI分区	地名	时段	年均冰川物质平衡/（m w.e./a）	RGI分区	地名	时段	年均冰川物质平衡/（m w.e./a）
7-1	北斯瓦尔巴德Vestfonna冰帽	1980—2010年	+0.09±0.15	13-2	西帕米尔高原	2000—2011年	+0.14±0.13
	中斯瓦尔巴德迪克森地	1990—2009年	-0.78±0.21	13-3	伊利切克冰川	1975—2007年	-0.39±0.10
	东斯瓦尔巴德埃季岛	1970—2002年	-0.50±0.02	13-4	乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川	1962—2009年	-0.44±0.09
	斯瓦尔巴德群岛整体	1965—2007年	-0.36±0.02	13-7	祁连山团结峰	1966—1999年	-0.21±0.04
	斯瓦尔巴德群岛整体	2003—2008年	-0.12±0.40	13-8	念青唐古拉山西段	2000—2014年	-0.27±0.13
8-1	斯瓦提森冰帽西部	1985—2002年	-0.12±0.09	14-1	兴都库什山	2003—2008年	-0.21±0.07
9-1	法兰士约瑟夫地群岛	2003—2009年	-0.07±0.06	14-2	喀喇昆仑山	1999—2008年	+0.11±0.22
9-2	新地岛	2003—2009年	-0.34±0.05	14-2	喀喇昆仑山	2003—2008年	-0.07±0.04
9-3	北地群岛	2003—2009年	-0.06±0.05	14-3	印度河源北部	1999—2011年	-0.44±0.09
10-1	IGAN和奥布鲁切夫冰川	1963—2008年	-0.30±0.06		查谟克什米尔	2003—2008年	-0.66±0.09
10-4	中国阿尔泰山	1959—2008年	-0.43±0.03	15-1	喜马拉雅山中段	2003—2008年	-0.38±0.06
11-1	意大利阿尔卑斯东部	1987—2009年	-0.69±0.12	15-2	喜马拉雅山东段	2003—2008年	-0.38±0.09
11-1	瑞士阿尔卑斯	1985—1999年	-0.77±0.14	15-3	岗日嘎布地区	1980—2014年	-0.46±0.08

表1 欧亚大陆冰川年均物质平衡特征

Table 1 Annual mean glacier mass balances in Eurasia

RGI分区	地名	时段	年均冰川物质平衡/（m w.e./a）	RGI分区	地名	时段	年均冰川物质平衡/（m w.e./a）
7-1	北斯瓦尔巴德Vestfonna冰帽	1980—2010年	+0.09±0.15	13-2	西帕米尔高原	2000—2011年	+0.14±0.13
	中斯瓦尔巴德迪克森地	1990—2009年	-0.78±0.21	13-3	伊利切克冰川	1975—2007年	-0.39±0.10
	东斯瓦尔巴德埃季岛	1970—2002年	-0.50±0.02	13-4	乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川	1962—2009年	-0.44±0.09
	斯瓦尔巴德群岛整体	1965—2007年	-0.36±0.02	13-7	祁连山团结峰	1966—1999年	-0.21±0.04
	斯瓦尔巴德群岛整体	2003—2008年	-0.12±0.40	13-8	念青唐古拉山西段	2000—2014年	-0.27±0.13
8-1	斯瓦提森冰帽西部	1985—2002年	-0.12±0.09	14-1	兴都库什山	2003—2008年	-0.21±0.07
9-1	法兰士约瑟夫地群岛	2003—2009年	-0.07±0.06	14-2	喀喇昆仑山	1999—2008年	+0.11±0.22
9-2	新地岛	2003—2009年	-0.34±0.05	14-2	喀喇昆仑山	2003—2008年	-0.07±0.04
9-3	北地群岛	2003—2009年	-0.06±0.05	14-3	印度河源北部	1999—2011年	-0.44±0.09
10-1	IGAN和奥布鲁切夫冰川	1963—2008年	-0.30±0.06		查谟克什米尔	2003—2008年	-0.66±0.09
10-4	中国阿尔泰山	1959—2008年	-0.43±0.03	15-1	喜马拉雅山中段	2003—2008年	-0.38±0.06
11-1	意大利阿尔卑斯东部	1987—2009年	-0.69±0.12	15-2	喜马拉雅山东段	2003—2008年	-0.38±0.09
11-1	瑞士阿尔卑斯	1985—1999年	-0.77±0.14	15-3	岗日嘎布地区	1980—2014年	-0.46±0.08

表2 全球多年冻土主要分布区域和面积 ^{[

51
]}

Table 2 Distribution and areas of permafrost over the world ^{[

51
]}

序号	国家/地区	多年冻土区域面积/( $×$ 10³ km²)	多年冻土面积/( $×$ 10³ km²)
1	俄罗斯	10 968(9 619~12 006)	6 966~9 541
2	加拿大	6 031(5 238~6 695)	3 637~4 978
3	中国	2 056(1 457~2 463)	673~1 676
4	美国	1 132(902~1 242)	530~877
5	蒙古	530(357~758)	165~394
6	格陵兰	297(282~303)	226~276
7	挪威	84(35~127)	25~65
8	吉尔吉斯斯坦	72(47~88)	19.6~54
9	瑞典	59(11.3~123)	4.7~43
10	印度	58(21~88)	7.8~65
11	塔吉克斯坦	54(30~62)	11.6~48
12	巴基斯坦	40(12.2~60)	4.4~43
13	哈萨克斯坦	39(27~49)	12.2~27
14	芬兰	34(0.9~97)	2.6~23
15	阿根廷	30(9.1~76)	3.5~33
16	阿富汗	27(12.4~40.8)	4.4~26
17	尼泊尔	15.7(10.5~19.5)	4.5~12.4
18	智利	14.0(3.5~37)	1.4~15.2
19	意大利	5.1(2.6~8.4)	0.8~3.2
20	朝鲜	4.7(0.7~12.5)	0.3~4.1
21	格鲁吉亚	4.7(2.4~7.6)	0.8~3.2
22	瑞士	4.5(2.3~6.6)	0.7~2.5
23	澳大利亚	3.6(1.7~6.3)	0.5~2.3
24	不丹	3.1(0.8~6.4)	0.3~3.2
25	乌兹别克斯坦	2.8(1.8~3.7)	0.6~1.8

表2 全球多年冻土主要分布区域和面积 ^{[

51
]}

Table 2 Distribution and areas of permafrost over the world ^{[

51
]}

序号	国家/地区	多年冻土区域面积/( $×$ 10³ km²)	多年冻土面积/( $×$ 10³ km²)
1	俄罗斯	10 968(9 619~12 006)	6 966~9 541
2	加拿大	6 031(5 238~6 695)	3 637~4 978
3	中国	2 056(1 457~2 463)	673~1 676
4	美国	1 132(902~1 242)	530~877
5	蒙古	530(357~758)	165~394
6	格陵兰	297(282~303)	226~276
7	挪威	84(35~127)	25~65
8	吉尔吉斯斯坦	72(47~88)	19.6~54
9	瑞典	59(11.3~123)	4.7~43
10	印度	58(21~88)	7.8~65
11	塔吉克斯坦	54(30~62)	11.6~48
12	巴基斯坦	40(12.2~60)	4.4~43
13	哈萨克斯坦	39(27~49)	12.2~27
14	芬兰	34(0.9~97)	2.6~23
15	阿根廷	30(9.1~76)	3.5~33
16	阿富汗	27(12.4~40.8)	4.4~26
17	尼泊尔	15.7(10.5~19.5)	4.5~12.4
18	智利	14.0(3.5~37)	1.4~15.2
19	意大利	5.1(2.6~8.4)	0.8~3.2
20	朝鲜	4.7(0.7~12.5)	0.3~4.1
21	格鲁吉亚	4.7(2.4~7.6)	0.8~3.2
22	瑞士	4.5(2.3~6.6)	0.7~2.5
23	澳大利亚	3.6(1.7~6.3)	0.5~2.3
24	不丹	3.1(0.8~6.4)	0.3~3.2
25	乌兹别克斯坦	2.8(1.8~3.7)	0.6~1.8

表3 多年冻土变化

Table 3 Variations of permafrost over the world

区域	地温变化	时段	活动层厚度变化	时段
青藏高原地区	0.017 ℃/a	1961—2000年	1.33 m/a	1990—2010年
昆仑山	0.0335 ℃/a	1996—2001年	0.295 m/a	1996—2001年
五道梁	0.007 ℃/a	1996—2001年	0.22 m/a	1996—2001年
北麓河	0.02 ℃/a	2005—2014年	0.42 m/a	2005—2014年
风火山	0.037 ℃/a	1996—2001年	0.34 m/a	1996—2001年
沱沱河	0.079 ℃/a	1980—2007年
唐古拉	0.017 ℃/a	1980—2007年	3.53 cm/a	1980—2007年
安多	0.062 ℃/a	1980—2007年
Corvatsch-Furtschellas	升高1.0 ℃	1988—1994年
Schilthorn			0.63~1.13 m/a	1999—2006年
挪威南部			0.03~0.33 m/10a	1860—2012年
Janssonhaugen			0.18 m/a	2005—2006年
Svalbard			0.26 m/a	2005—2006年
意大利地区	0.01~0.10 ℃/a	2007—2013年
俄罗斯	0.5~2.0 ℃/a	1970—2009年	0.57 cm/a	1956—1990年
俄罗斯北极	升高3 ℃	1955—2000年
东西伯利亚	0.065~0.59 ℃/a	1956—1990年	0.3~1.0 cm/a	1950—2008年
西西伯利亚北部	0.01~0.07 ℃/a	1996—1999年

表3 多年冻土变化

Table 3 Variations of permafrost over the world

区域	地温变化	时段	活动层厚度变化	时段
青藏高原地区	0.017 ℃/a	1961—2000年	1.33 m/a	1990—2010年
昆仑山	0.0335 ℃/a	1996—2001年	0.295 m/a	1996—2001年
五道梁	0.007 ℃/a	1996—2001年	0.22 m/a	1996—2001年
北麓河	0.02 ℃/a	2005—2014年	0.42 m/a	2005—2014年
风火山	0.037 ℃/a	1996—2001年	0.34 m/a	1996—2001年
沱沱河	0.079 ℃/a	1980—2007年
唐古拉	0.017 ℃/a	1980—2007年	3.53 cm/a	1980—2007年
安多	0.062 ℃/a	1980—2007年
Corvatsch-Furtschellas	升高1.0 ℃	1988—1994年
Schilthorn			0.63~1.13 m/a	1999—2006年
挪威南部			0.03~0.33 m/10a	1860—2012年
Janssonhaugen			0.18 m/a	2005—2006年
Svalbard			0.26 m/a	2005—2006年
意大利地区	0.01~0.10 ℃/a	2007—2013年
俄罗斯	0.5~2.0 ℃/a	1970—2009年	0.57 cm/a	1956—1990年
俄罗斯北极	升高3 ℃	1955—2000年
东西伯利亚	0.065~0.59 ℃/a	1956—1990年	0.3~1.0 cm/a	1950—2008年
西西伯利亚北部	0.01~0.07 ℃/a	1996—1999年

图3 欧亚大陆和北极年平均雪深（a）和最大雪深（b）年际变化^{[

82
]}

Fig.3 Interannual variations of mean snow depth (a) and maximum snow depth (b) in Eurasia and Arctic^{[

82
]}

图4 1979—2019年北极年平均海冰范围异常（相对于1981—2010年平均）

Fig. 4 The Arctic sea ice extent anomaly in 1979-2019 (relatived to the 1981-2010 mean values)

图5 “一带一路”沿线湖冰发育的主要湖泊

Fig. 5 Lakes with ice formation in the Belt and Road areas

图6 欧亚大陆不同流域雪冰融水占总水量比例（数据来自参考文献[ 130 ]）

Fig. 6 Ratio of meltwater from snow and ice to total runoff in different watersheds over Eurasia(data from reference[ 130 ])

表4 中国西部山区冰川融水径流量 ^{[

135
]}

Table 4 Glacier runoff in mountains in western China ^{[

135
]}

山脉	冰川融水径流量/( $×$ 10⁸ m³)	占中国冰川融水径流量比重/%
祁连山	11.32	1.9
阿尔泰山	3.86	0.6
天山	96.30	15.9
帕米尔	15.35	2.5
喀喇昆仑山	38.47	6.4
昆仑山	61.87	10.2
喜马拉雅山	76.60	12.7
羌塘高原	9.29	1.5
冈底斯山	9.41	1.6
念青唐古拉山	213.27	35.3
横断山	49.94	8.3
唐古拉山	17.59	2.9
阿尔金山	1.39	0.2

表4 中国西部山区冰川融水径流量 ^{[

135
]}

Table 4 Glacier runoff in mountains in western China ^{[

135
]}

山脉	冰川融水径流量/( $×$ 10⁸ m³)	占中国冰川融水径流量比重/%
祁连山	11.32	1.9
阿尔泰山	3.86	0.6
天山	96.30	15.9
帕米尔	15.35	2.5
喀喇昆仑山	38.47	6.4
昆仑山	61.87	10.2
喜马拉雅山	76.60	12.7
羌塘高原	9.29	1.5
冈底斯山	9.41	1.6
念青唐古拉山	213.27	35.3
横断山	49.94	8.3
唐古拉山	17.59	2.9
阿尔金山	1.39	0.2

表5 中国典型流域冰川径流量 ^{[

134
,

136
]}

Table 5 Glacier runoff in typical watersheds in China ^{[

134
,

136
]}

流域	冰川融水径流量/( $×$ 10⁸ m³)	冰川融水占流域径流比重/%
河西水系	11.94	16.5
准格尔盆地	33.65	26.9
伊犁河	37.14	19.2
塔里木盆地	126.50	38.5
柴达木盆地	13.51	28.4
哈拉湖	0.11	3.4
羌塘高原	29.18	11.9
长江	15.52	8.8
黄河	1.74	0.8
额尔齐斯河	7.73	7.7
澜沧江	4.43	4.0
怒江	24.26	5.9

表5 中国典型流域冰川径流量 ^{[

134
,

136
]}

Table 5 Glacier runoff in typical watersheds in China ^{[

134
,

136
]}

流域	冰川融水径流量/( $×$ 10⁸ m³)	冰川融水占流域径流比重/%
河西水系	11.94	16.5
准格尔盆地	33.65	26.9
伊犁河	37.14	19.2
塔里木盆地	126.50	38.5
柴达木盆地	13.51	28.4
哈拉湖	0.11	3.4
羌塘高原	29.18	11.9
长江	15.52	8.8
黄河	1.74	0.8
额尔齐斯河	7.73	7.7
澜沧江	4.43	4.0
怒江	24.26	5.9

表6 中国西部冰川融水变化 ^{[

134
,

136
,

138
]} 单位：×10 ⁸ m ³

Table 6 Variations of glacier melt in western China ^{[

134
,

136
,

138
]} 单位：×10 ⁸ m ³

流域水系	1961—1970年	1971—1980年	1981—1990年	1991—2000年	2001—2006年
总计	517.65	590.87	615.16	695.48	794.67
印度河	5.36	7.39	7.96	10.76	12.58
恒河	260.16	298.02	312.22	341.06	379.41
怒江	23.45	24.60	25.43	29.54	35.70
澜沧江	3.83	3.96	4.07	4.52	5.30
黄河	1.75	1.82	1.77	1.91	2.19
长江	17.04	18.75	18.68	22.54	28.47
额尔齐斯河	3.23	3.33	3.32	3.50	3.63
外流水系合计	314.83	357.87	373.45	413.83	467.27
塔里木盆地	121.05	136.73	139.26	157.85	180.39
哈拉湖	0.11	0.12	0.13	0.15	0.16
甘肃河西内陆河	8.12	9.06	9.12	11.67	14.76
柴达木盆地	7.36	8.23	8.62	11.45	14.52
天山准噶尔盆地	17.92	18.81	18.65	20.76	22.73
吐—哈盆地	2.39	2.36	2.40	2.59	3.12
新疆伊犁河	21.16	22.55	22.86	24.79	26.91
青藏高原内流区	24.73	35.13	40.68	52.38	64.81
内流水系合计	202.82	233.00	241.71	281.64	327.40

表6 中国西部冰川融水变化 ^{[

134
,

136
,

138
]} 单位：×10 ⁸ m ³

Table 6 Variations of glacier melt in western China ^{[

134
,

136
,

138
]} 单位：×10 ⁸ m ³

流域水系	1961—1970年	1971—1980年	1981—1990年	1991—2000年	2001—2006年
总计	517.65	590.87	615.16	695.48	794.67
印度河	5.36	7.39	7.96	10.76	12.58
恒河	260.16	298.02	312.22	341.06	379.41
怒江	23.45	24.60	25.43	29.54	35.70
澜沧江	3.83	3.96	4.07	4.52	5.30
黄河	1.75	1.82	1.77	1.91	2.19
长江	17.04	18.75	18.68	22.54	28.47
额尔齐斯河	3.23	3.33	3.32	3.50	3.63
外流水系合计	314.83	357.87	373.45	413.83	467.27
塔里木盆地	121.05	136.73	139.26	157.85	180.39
哈拉湖	0.11	0.12	0.13	0.15	0.16
甘肃河西内陆河	8.12	9.06	9.12	11.67	14.76
柴达木盆地	7.36	8.23	8.62	11.45	14.52
天山准噶尔盆地	17.92	18.81	18.65	20.76	22.73
吐—哈盆地	2.39	2.36	2.40	2.59	3.12
新疆伊犁河	21.16	22.55	22.86	24.79	26.91
青藏高原内流区	24.73	35.13	40.68	52.38	64.81
内流水系合计	202.82	233.00	241.71	281.64	327.40

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