气候变化影响区域文明发展演化的主要表现方式

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.11.1218

气候变化曾经深刻地影响了人类文明的进程,是导致区域文明兴衰的基本力量之一。气候变化对社会发展影响的表现形式和最终后果既与气候变化的特点有关,也与人类社会的适应有关,是两者相互作用的产物。基于近20年来国内外气候变化与文明研究的大量实例,归纳出气候变化影响人类社会发展的5种主要表现形式:周期性循环、脉冲式变化、适应性转型、文明崩溃与衰落、迁徙与替代。以上结果有助于深化对气候变化与文明发展相互作用机制的认识,并为人类应对全球变化挑战提供宝贵的历史借鉴。

关键词: 气候变化, 文明, 气候变化影响, 适应, 类型

Climate change has profoundly impacted the development of human civilization. It is one of the basic forces that have led to the rise and fall of regional civilization. The manifestations and ultimate consequences of the impacts of climate change on social development are the products of the interaction between climate change and human society, which are both related to the characteristics of climate change and to the adaptation of human society. Based on the published papers on climate change and civilization during the past 20 years, five patterns of the impacts of climate change on civilization were summarized. They are periodic changes, pulse, adaptive transition, collapse, migration and replacement. Periodic changes and pulse occurred when climate change impacts were within the resilience of human social systems. Thus, there was no need for major structural changes in the human society. Adaptive transition was a fruit of successful response of the human system when the extent of abrupt climatic change or the trend of climate change exceeded the available range of human social systems In contrast, collapse was a result of failed response of the human system. Migration and replacement, in which people moved from their original living place to other regions and sometimes even replaced the aboriginal civilizations with the colonized civilization, could occur no matter the impacts of climate change had exceeded the resilience of human system. The summarization is expected to be useful for the understanding of the mechanism on the relationship between climate change and civilization, and for coping with the challenges of future global climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Civilization, Impacts of climate change, Adaption, Pattern.

中图分类号:

P467

图1 气候变化影响人类社会的5种表现形式示意图
(a)周期性循环;(b)脉冲式变化;(c)适应性转型;(d)崩溃或衰落;(e)迁徙与替代

Fig.1 Five patterns of the impacts of climate change on civilization
(a)Periodic changes;(b)Pulse;(c)Adaptive transition;(d)Collapse;(e)Migration and replacement

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摘要

Patterns of the Impacts of Climate Change on Civilization