长江中下游地区双季早稻冷害、热害危险性评价

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.05.0503.

地球科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 503 -514. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.05.0503.

姚蓬娟 ¹(

), 王春乙 ^1,,A; ^*(

), 张继权 ²

1.中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081
2.东北师范大学灾害研究所,吉林长春 130024

收稿日期:2016-02-28 修回日期:2016-04-28 出版日期:2016-05-20
通讯作者: 王春乙 E-mail:ypjcams@163.com;wcy@cms1924.org
基金资助:
*“十二五”农村领域国家科技支撑计划“农林气象灾害监测预警与防控关键技术研究”(编号:2011BAD32B00-04)资助

Hazard Assessment of Cold and Hot Damage for Double-Season Early Rice (DSER) in Lower-Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

Pengjuan Yao ¹( ), Chunyi Wang ^1, ^*( ), Jiquan Zhang ²

1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2.Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China

Received:2016-02-28 Revised:2016-04-28 Online:2016-05-20 Published:2016-05-10
Contact: Chunyi Wang E-mail:ypjcams@163.com;wcy@cms1924.org
About author:
First author:Yao Pengjuan (1990-), female, Rongcheng City, Shandong Province, Master student. Research areas include agricultural meteorological disaster risk assessment research.E-mail:ypjcams@163.com

Corresponding author:Wang Chunyi (1960-), male, Dandong City, Liaoning Province, Professor. Research areas include risk assessment of agricultural meteorological disaster and effects of climate change on crops.E-mail:wcy@cms1924.org
Supported by:
Project supported by the “12th Five-Year” National Science and Technology Support Program “Research on key technologies of monitoring and early warning and prevention of agricultural and forestry meteorological disasters”(No.2011BAD32B00-04)

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为分析农业气象灾害对长江中下游地区双季早稻生产的影响,选取对双季早稻影响最大的冷害、热害作为致灾因子研究长江中下游地区双季早稻生产的危险性。以长江中下游地区双季早稻种植区48个农业气象站点1961—2012年的气象资料为基础,结合1981—2010年的农业气象资料,判别并量化冷害和热害,以发育期为研究尺度构建双季早稻冷害、热害综合危险性评价模型,研究长江中下游地区双季早稻生长季冷害、热害的发生情况、危险性大小以及各发育期危险性比重。结果表明:①冷害在分蘖期最强,热害在灌浆期最强;冷害变弱,热害变强;山地和丘陵地区多冷害少热害,平原地区多热害少冷害,但靠近大面积水域的平原地区在孕穗或开花期时常有冷害发生。②各发育期的危险度高值区与灾害值的高值区范围相似;从全生育期危险性来看,浙江是危险最高的地区,其次是湖北,而湖南和江西种植条件较好。③从各发育期危险比重来看,整个研究区在灌浆期危险比重最高,其次是分蘖期,然后是开花期,孕穗期最低。湖北主要在孕穗、灌浆期危险,湖南主要在分蘖、开花和灌浆期危险,江西主要在分蘖和灌浆期危险,浙江在开花和灌浆期危险。

关键词: 危险性评价, 双季早稻, 长江中下游地区, 冷害和热害

Cold and hot damages which are both common disasters occurring in DSER growth time in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin harm early rice. The two disasters occurrence should be deeply studied to protect the DSER yield. This study was based on meteorological data of 48 agricultural meteorological stations during 1961-2010 period and agricultural meteorological data during 1981-2010 for DSER in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. In this study, the growth time was divided into several phases according to the growth stage, including tillering stage, booting stage, flowering stage and filling stage. The disasters taking place at some stages was identified by building new judging standard and their intensity value was calculated by harm accumulated temperature calculation model. Fisher optimal division method was used to classify the disasters and H-P filter was used to consider the reduction of the yield. It was conducted to analize the disasters’ characteristics in growing season, the intensity of hazard and the weight of hazard at each stage by judging and quantifying cold and hot damage and developing hazard assessment model of disasters. All findings were displayed in maps by GIS technology. The results showed that: ①New disaster judging standard was more suitable for DSER and the hazard assessment model could reveal the disaster situation in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. ②Cold damage was severe at tillering stage while hot damage was severe at filling stage. In the view of the distribution of the decadal disaster intensity, cold damage became to be weak and hot damage became to be strong. Compared with the plains, mountainous region and hilly ground were attacked by cold damage frequently and hot damage rarely from the perspective of spatial distribution of disasters. Distinctly, plains near large areas of water were often harmed by cold damage at booting and flowering stage. ③The area of high hazard value and high disasters value at each stage were overlapped by each other roughly. Studying the hazard of the whole growth season showed that the highest hazard value was in Zhejiang province, and the next in Hubei Province. So Hu’nan and Jiangxi Provinces were quite suitable to grow DSER. ④In contrast with the hazard weight at each stage, the vulnerable phases of the whole growth time were in sequence of filling stage> tillering stage> flowering stage > booting stage. What’s more, aiming at defensing and fending off risk, some special stages in special province should be paid close attention including booting and filling stages in Hubei Province, tillering and flowering and filling stages in Hu’nan Province, tillering and filling stages in Jiangxi Province, flowering and filling stages in Zhejiang Province. The conclusion can be taken as theoretical basis for the government management of agricultural production, disaster prevention and mitigation.

Key words: Hazard assessment, DSER, The lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, Cold and hot damage.

中图分类号:

P463.2

图1 研究区域及气象站点

Fig.1 Study area and agro-meteorological stations

表1 灾害判别标准

Table 1 The judging standard of disasters

灾种	灾害名称	发生时间	临界温度 /℃	临界天数 /d
冷害	分蘖期低温	返青到拔节	T_avg≤17	3
	孕穗期低温	拔节到孕穗	T_avg≤20	3
	开花期低温	抽穗到开花	T_avg≤22	3
热害	开花期高温	抽穗到开花	T_max≥35	3
热害	灌浆期高温	灌浆结实	T_max≥35	1

表1 灾害判别标准

Table 1 The judging standard of disasters

灾种	灾害名称	发生时间	临界温度 /℃	临界天数 /d
冷害	分蘖期低温	返青到拔节	T_avg≤17	3
	孕穗期低温	拔节到孕穗	T_avg≤20	3
	开花期低温	抽穗到开花	T_avg≤22	3
热害	开花期高温	抽穗到开花	T_max≥35	3
热害	灌浆期高温	灌浆结实	T_max≥35	1

图2 临界值为日最高气温的热害积温计算模型

Fig.2 The hot accumulated temperature calculation model of the critical value for daily maximum temperature

表2 热害等级划分(单位:℃·d)

Table 2 The hot damage grading (unit:℃·d)

热害等级	开花期热害划分阈值	灌浆期热害划分阈值
轻度	H_t_年<15.3	H_t_年<25.1
中度	15.3≤H_t_年<45.3	25.1≤H_t_年<77.7
重度	H_t_年≥45.3	H_t_年≥77.7

表2 热害等级划分(单位:℃·d)

Table 2 The hot damage grading (unit:℃·d)

热害等级	开花期热害划分阈值	灌浆期热害划分阈值
轻度	H_t_年<15.3	H_t_年<25.1
中度	15.3≤H_t_年<45.3	25.1≤H_t_年<77.7
重度	H_t_年≥45.3	H_t_年≥77.7

表3 冷害等级划分(单位:℃·d)

Table 3 The cold damage grading(unit:℃·d)

冷害等级	分蘖期冷害划分阈值	孕穗期冷害划分阈值	开花期冷害划分阈值
一般冷害	C_t_年<70.4	C_t_年<52.8	C_t_年<47.2
严重冷害	C_t_年≥70.4	C_t_年≥52.8	C_t_年≥47.2

表3 冷害等级划分(单位:℃·d)

Table 3 The cold damage grading(unit:℃·d)

冷害等级	分蘖期冷害划分阈值	孕穗期冷害划分阈值	开花期冷害划分阈值
一般冷害	C_t_年<70.4	C_t_年<52.8	C_t_年<47.2
严重冷害	C_t_年≥70.4	C_t_年≥52.8	C_t_年≥47.2

图3 双季早稻各发育期危害积温的年代际变化分布图
(a)分蘖期冷害;(b)孕穗期冷害;(c)开花期冷害;(d)开花期热害;(e)灌浆期热害

Fig.3 The distribution of the decadal disaster intensity in each period of DSER
(a)Cold damage at tilling stage; (b)Cold damage at booting stage; (c)Cold damage at flowering stage;(d)Hot damage at flowering stage; (e)Hot damage at filling stage

图4 双季早稻各发育期灾害危险度分布
(a)分蘖期冷害危险度;(b)孕穗期冷害危险度;(c)开花期冷害危险度;(d)开花期热害危险度;(e)开花期危险度;(f)灌浆期热害危险度

Fig.4 The distribution of the disaster hazard in each period of DSER
(a)Cold damage at tilling stage;(b)Cold damage at booting stage;(c)Cold damage at flowering stage;(d)Hot damage at flowering stage;(e)Multiple disasters at flowering stage;(f)Hot damage in filling stage

图5 研究区危险度空间分布

Fig.5 The spatial distribution of hazard in map

图6 各发育期危险权重
(a)分蘖期; (b)孕穗期; (c)开花期; (d)灌浆期

Fig.6 The weight of hazard at different stage
(a)Tilling stage; (b)Booting stage; (c)Flowering stage; (d)Filling stage

表4 各发育期危险性比重

Table 4 The weight of hazard at different stage

省份	站点	分蘖期冷害	孕穗期冷害	开花期灾害	灌浆期热害	省份	站点	分蘖期冷害	孕穗期冷害	开花期灾害	灌浆期热害
湖北	麻城	0.00	0.03	0.06	0.91	江西	莲花	0.12	0.03	0.07	0.78
湖北	孝感	0.23	0.68	0.04	0.04	江西	泰和	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.89
湖北	江夏	0.07	0.15	0.04	0.74	江西	南康	0.11	0.00	0.18	0.72
湖北	洪湖	0.00	0.11	0.08	0.81	江西	瑞昌	0.21	0.00	0.05	0.75
湖北	蕲春	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.97	江西	湖口	0.76	0.00	0.00	0.24
湖北	阳新	0.23	0.28	0.03	0.46	江西	婺源	0.26	0.03	0.12	0.59
湖南	澧县	0.24	0.00	0.28	0.47	江西	南昌	0.05	0.03	0.04	0.88
湖南	南县	0.28	0.00	0.33	0.39	江西	樟树	0.50	0.00	0.08	0.43
湖南	常德	0.03	0.00	0.21	0.76	江西	余干	0.50	0.01	0.05	0.45
湖南	赫山	0.50	0.17	0.12	0.21	江西	广丰	0.01	0.00	0.17	0.82
湖南	平江	0.44	0.00	0.10	0.46	江西	南丰	0.64	0.01	0.16	0.19
湖南	长沙	0.36	0.03	0.08	0.53	江西	宁都	0.32	0.00	0.06	0.62
湖南	娄底	0.44	0.00	0.32	0.24	江西	龙南	0.23	0.07	0.04	0.67
湖南	邵东	0.33	0.01	0.55	0.10	浙江	湖州	0.00	0.00	0.43	0.57
湖南	湘乡	0.50	0.03	0.20	0.28	浙江	嘉兴	0.00	0.00	0.52	0.48
湖南	醴陵	0.30	0.00	0.11	0.59	浙江	绍兴	0.02	0.00	0.32	0.66
湖南	武冈	0.59	0.08	0.34	0.00	浙江	龙游	0.00	0.00	0.35	0.64
湖南	冷水滩	0.09	0.00	0.11	0.80	浙江	金华	0.00	0.03	0.11	0.86
湖南	衡阳	0.07	0.00	0.23	0.70	浙江	宁海	0.17	0.07	0.38	0.38
湖南	茶陵	0.19	0.00	0.09	0.72	浙江	丽水	0.00	0.02	0.19	0.79
湖南	临武	0.32	0.24	0.03	0.41	浙江	龙泉	0.02	0.12	0.11	0.75
湖南	资兴	0.75	0.03	0.02	0.20	浙江	仙居	0.00	0.01	0.47	0.52
湖南	江华	0.77	0.13	0.03	0.07	浙江	椒江	0.06	0.32	0.34	0.29
江西	宜丰	0.42	0.14	0.12	0.31	浙江	平阳	0.26	0.12	0.23	0.39

表4 各发育期危险性比重

Table 4 The weight of hazard at different stage

省份	站点	分蘖期冷害	孕穗期冷害	开花期灾害	灌浆期热害	省份	站点	分蘖期冷害	孕穗期冷害	开花期灾害	灌浆期热害
湖北	麻城	0.00	0.03	0.06	0.91	江西	莲花	0.12	0.03	0.07	0.78
湖北	孝感	0.23	0.68	0.04	0.04	江西	泰和	0.00	0.00	0.11	0.89
湖北	江夏	0.07	0.15	0.04	0.74	江西	南康	0.11	0.00	0.18	0.72
湖北	洪湖	0.00	0.11	0.08	0.81	江西	瑞昌	0.21	0.00	0.05	0.75
湖北	蕲春	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.97	江西	湖口	0.76	0.00	0.00	0.24
湖北	阳新	0.23	0.28	0.03	0.46	江西	婺源	0.26	0.03	0.12	0.59
湖南	澧县	0.24	0.00	0.28	0.47	江西	南昌	0.05	0.03	0.04	0.88
湖南	南县	0.28	0.00	0.33	0.39	江西	樟树	0.50	0.00	0.08	0.43
湖南	常德	0.03	0.00	0.21	0.76	江西	余干	0.50	0.01	0.05	0.45
湖南	赫山	0.50	0.17	0.12	0.21	江西	广丰	0.01	0.00	0.17	0.82
湖南	平江	0.44	0.00	0.10	0.46	江西	南丰	0.64	0.01	0.16	0.19
湖南	长沙	0.36	0.03	0.08	0.53	江西	宁都	0.32	0.00	0.06	0.62
湖南	娄底	0.44	0.00	0.32	0.24	江西	龙南	0.23	0.07	0.04	0.67
湖南	邵东	0.33	0.01	0.55	0.10	浙江	湖州	0.00	0.00	0.43	0.57
湖南	湘乡	0.50	0.03	0.20	0.28	浙江	嘉兴	0.00	0.00	0.52	0.48
湖南	醴陵	0.30	0.00	0.11	0.59	浙江	绍兴	0.02	0.00	0.32	0.66
湖南	武冈	0.59	0.08	0.34	0.00	浙江	龙游	0.00	0.00	0.35	0.64
湖南	冷水滩	0.09	0.00	0.11	0.80	浙江	金华	0.00	0.03	0.11	0.86
湖南	衡阳	0.07	0.00	0.23	0.70	浙江	宁海	0.17	0.07	0.38	0.38
湖南	茶陵	0.19	0.00	0.09	0.72	浙江	丽水	0.00	0.02	0.19	0.79
湖南	临武	0.32	0.24	0.03	0.41	浙江	龙泉	0.02	0.12	0.11	0.75
湖南	资兴	0.75	0.03	0.02	0.20	浙江	仙居	0.00	0.01	0.47	0.52
湖南	江华	0.77	0.13	0.03	0.07	浙江	椒江	0.06	0.32	0.34	0.29
江西	宜丰	0.42	0.14	0.12	0.31	浙江	平阳	0.26	0.12	0.23	0.39

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