气候变化对宁夏水稻的影响及适应性研究

地球科学进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (11): 1248 -1256.

气候变化对宁夏水稻的影响及适应性研究

王连喜 ^{1, 2}, 刘静 ³, 李琪 ^{1, 2, *}, 钱蕊 ^{1, 2}

1.南京信息工程大学,江苏省大气环境监测与污染控制高技术研究重点实验室,江苏南京 210044; 2.南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院,江苏南京 210044; 3.宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,宁夏银川 750002

收稿日期:2013-07-18 出版日期:2013-11-10
通讯作者: 李琪(1977-),男,河北新城人,副教授,主要从事农业气象与生态气象研究.E-mail: liqix123@sina.com E-mail:liqix123@sina.com
基金资助:
国家科技支撑计划项目“全球变化环境下作物产量的影响与适应监测评估技术”(编号：2012BAH29B03); 江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目“气候变化背景下江苏省水稻高温热害模拟研究”(编号：11KJB210004)资助.

Simulation Study of the Climate Change Impact on the Rice and its Adaptability in Ningxia Province

Wang Lianxi ^{1, 2}, Liu Jing ³, Li Qi ^{1, 2}, Qian Rui ^{1, 2}

1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environmental Monitoring and Pollution Control, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044,China; 2. School of Environment Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044,China; 3. Ningxia Key Laboratory for Preventing and Reducing Meteorological Disaster, Yinchuan 750002,China

Received:2013-07-18 Online:2013-11-10 Published:2013-11-10

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宁夏引黄灌区种植水稻历史悠久,是全国优质水稻高产区之一,研究气候变化对宁夏水稻的影响及适应性,对减轻气候变化带来的负面影响,保障粮食供给安全有一定意义。利用区域气候模型PRECIS的输出结果实现与作物模型CERESRice联接,模拟并评估未来气候变化对宁夏引黄灌区水稻产量和生育期的影响,并研究宁夏水稻生产的适应性措施。结果表明CERESRice模型有较好的模拟能力,PRECIS模型在经过修正后也能够较好地模拟气候参数。作物模型的模拟结果表明,未来气候情景下,宁夏水稻皆呈减产趋势,同情景下2050s比2020s减产趋势明显,空间变化趋势相一致。在生育期变化方面,同情景下2050s较2020s缩短程度明显。改变播期和水稻品种参数G4的模拟结果表明：适当提前播期,有利于减轻气候变暖对宁夏引黄灌区水稻生产带来的负面影响；而改变水稻的品种特性,培育耐高温水稻品种,可以降低气候变化给宁夏水稻生产带来的危害。

关键词: 气候模式, 适应性措施, 水稻, 气候变化, 作物模型

Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia, as the top rice production area of high quality and quantity, has a long history in riceplanting. The studies of the effective measures for the rice production replying the climate change were very important for reducing the harm of the future climate change and crop supply safety in Ningxia Province. Based on the coupling of the PRECIS model and the crop model CERESRice, the effects of climate change on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province were simulated and evaluated, and the adaptability measures of rice production were studied. The results showed that the CERESRice model had the preferable simulation capability, and the modified PRECIS model also could preferably simulate the required climate parameter. The crop model simulation results showed that the climate change had some influence on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District. The rice production goes down under future climate change scenarios in Ningxia Province. The trend of reduction of 2050s is more apparent than that of 2020s under the same scenarios,but the spatial change trend is similar. The extent and range of reduction of A2 scenario are wider than that of B2 scenario in the same period, but spatial change trend is different. For the change of growth stage, there has no obvious change in the north and the central part of the Yinhuang Irrigation District. The duration in 2050s shortens more obviously than that of 2020s under the same scenario, and the duration under B2 scenario shortens more obviously than that under A2 scenario in the same period. The results of adjusting the sowing date and the rice variety parameter G4 showed that the negative impact of climate change on the rice production can be reduced by sowing date advance in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province. There has obvious difference for the optimal G4 values of different region in Yinhuang Irrigation District, and the rice production can also be effectively upraised by adjusting the rice variety characteristic and cultivating the heatresistant rice varieties. The optimal G4 values can mitigate the damage of climate change on the rice production in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province.

Key words: Rice, Crop model, Climate model, Climate change, Adaptability measure.

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