FGOALS-s2海洋同化系统中东亚夏季风和前冬厄尔尼诺—南方涛动关系的年代际变化

doi:10.11867/j. issn. 1001-8166.2017.04.0362

地球科学进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 362 -372. doi: 10.11867/j. issn. 1001-8166.2017.04.0362

陈晓龙 ¹(

), 吴波 ¹, 周天军 ^1, ²

1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049

收稿日期:2016-11-09 修回日期:2017-01-02 出版日期:2017-04-20
基金资助:
公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目“基于FGOALS-s、CMA和CESM气候系统模式的年代际集合预测系统的建立与研究”(编号:GYHY201506012);中国博士后科学基金项目“温室气体强迫下亚洲夏季风响应的不确定性研究”(编号:2015M581152)资助

Interdecadal Change of Relation between East Asian Summer Monsoon and ENSO in Previous Winter in An Ocean Assimilation System Based on FGOALS-s2

Xiaolong Chen ¹( ), Bo Wu ¹, Tianjun Zhou ^1, ²

1. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,China

Received:2016-11-09 Revised:2017-01-02 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-04-20
About author:
First author:Chen Xiaolong (1988-), male, Pucheng County, Shaanxi Province, Post Doctor. Research areas include monsoon variability and climate change.E-mail:chenxl@lasg.iap.ac.cn
Supported by:
Foundation item:Project supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) “Development and research of ensemble decadal climate prediction system based on global climate models FGOALS-s, CMA and CESM” (No.GYHY201506012);The China Postdoctoral Science Foundation “A study on uncertainties in the response of the Asian monsoon to Green-house gas forcing” (No.2015M581152)

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海洋同化系统为年代际预测试验提供初值,其性能可能会影响年代际预测技巧,因此评估其对重要年代际变化现象的模拟能力非常必要。观测发现,东亚夏季风(EASM)和前冬厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)的关系在1970s末加强,随后在1990s中期后减弱。基于FGOALS-s2耦合气候模式的海洋同化系统评估了其对这2次年代际变化的模拟能力。结果表明,决定模式能否再现EASM和前冬ENSO关系的年代际变化有2个重要因素:①与前冬ENSO有关的夏季印度洋—太平洋海温型的年代际变化;②模式西北太平洋反气旋对热带海温的响应偏差。模式中西北太平洋反气旋与东北印度洋的暖海温关系稳定,当1970s末前冬ENSO对夏季印度洋海温影响显著增强时,模式能够模拟出北印度洋降水以及赤道东印度洋至海洋大陆上空Kelvin波的增强,从而可再现EASM与前冬ENSO关系的增强;而1990s中期后模式中与前冬ENSO有关的东北印度洋海温异常进一步增强,与观测相反,使得模式未能再现观测中EASM与前冬ENSO关系的减弱。此外,1990s中期后模式对夏季中太平洋冷海温异常的Rossby波响应存在较大偏差,是其未能再现此次年代际变化的另一个原因。研究表明,与ENSO有关的热带印太海温的年代际变化预测水平和模式对海温的响应偏差将在一定程度上制约模式对EASM与ENSO关系的年代际预测能力。

关键词: 东亚夏季风, 厄尔尼诺—南方涛动, 年代际变化, 海洋同化系统, 耦合气候系统模式

Ocean Assimilation System (OAS) is an important component for decadal prediction experiment, providing initial conditions. Evaluating the atmosphere response in OAS can provide reference for analyzing results from decadal prediction. We analyzed the interdecadal change in relation between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the previous winter based on an OAS on the coupled climate model FGOALS-s2. It shows that two factors impact the performance: ① interdecadal change of Ssea Surface Temperature (SST) pattern in the summer Indo-Pacific Basin related with ENSO in previous winter and ② bias in model response of the western North Pacific anticyclone to tropical SST anomalies. The anticyclone shows steady relation with the warm eastern Indian Ocean. When ENSO’s impact on the summer Indian Ocean is strengthened around the end of 1970s, the OAS can reproduce the strengthened EASM-ENSO relation. However, the trend of intensified EASM-ENSO relation in the OAS is still significant after the mid-1990s due to the stronger link between the anticyclone and the northeastern Indian Ocean, differing with the observation which shows a weakened effect of the Indian Ocean on the anticyclone. In addition, the bias in response to the SST anomalies in the central Pacific also partly contributes to the failure in reproducing the weakening EASM-ENSO relation after the mid-1990s. It implies that prediction skill of interdecadal ENSO impact on the tropical Indo-Pacific SST and response bias of model to SST anomalies may to some extent limit the capability to predict the interdecadal change in the EASM-ENSO relation.

Key words: East Asian summer monsoon, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal change, Ocean assimilation system, FGOALS.

中图分类号:

P425.4+2

图1 EASMI与前冬Nino3.4指数关系的年代际变化以及两者在海洋同化系统中的模拟技巧
(a)EASMI与前冬Nino 3.4指数的15年滑动相关系数(红色:同化系统;黑色:观测;绿色:无同化、自由耦合的历史气候模拟);(b)同化系统中EASMI和Nino 3.4指数的模拟技巧,分别为与观测中EASMI和Nino3.4指数的15年滑动相关系数;粗线代表集合平均,细线代表单个成员;观测的12个成员为4套再分析资料和3套海温资料的组合;同化系统有3个成员,其初值源于对应的3组自由耦合的历史模拟试验;浅黄色阴影区(1979—1993年)为EASMI与前冬Nino3.4指数相关系数以及EASMI模拟技巧较高的时期;2条虚线分别表示10%和5%的显著性水平

Fig.1 Decadal variation of the relation between EASMI and Nino3.4 index in previous DJF and their skills in OAS
(a) 15 year running correlation coefficient between EASMI and Nino3.4 in previous DJF (red: OAS; black: OBS; green: free coupled historical simulation without assimilation); (b) Skill of EASMI and Nino3.4, represented by 15 year running correlation coefficient between OAS and OBS; Bold lines denote ensemble mean, thin lines the individual members; Observational 12 members are the combination of 4 re-analyses and 3 SST datasets; 3 members of OAS are initialized from corresponding free-coupled historical simulation; Light yellow shading covering 1979-1993 highlights the period of high correlation of EASM and Nino3.4 and high skill of EASMI; Two dashed lines are the 10% and 5% significance levels respectively

图2 回归到前冬Nino3.4指数上的夏季SST异常(单位:℃)
左列为观测;右列为同化系统;上、中、下分别为EASMI与前冬Nino3.4指数关系较低(1964—1978年)、较高(1979—1993年)和较低(1994—2008年)的3段时期;阴影区为海温异常通过5%显著性;黑框区为东北印度洋区域(0°~20°N, 75°~110°E)

Fig.2 SST anomalies (units: ℃) in JJA regressed against Nino3.4 in previous DJF
Left column is the observation, right column is the OAS; Top, middle and bottom are three periods that correspond to low (1964-1978), high (1979-1993)and low (1994-2008) correlation between EASMI and Nino3.4 in previous winter, respectively; Dotted shadings exceed the 5% significance level; Black box denotes the northeastern Indian Ocean (0°~20°N, 75°~110°E)

图3 3段时期与前冬ENSO有关的夏季东北印度洋(0°~20°N,75°~110°E;见图2 黑框区)海温异常(单位:℃)
圆圈代表观测,正方形代表同化系统

Fig.3 Summertime SST anomaly (units: ℃) in the northeastern Indian Ocean (0°~20°N, 75°~110°E;black box in Fig.2 ) associated with Nino3.4 in previous winter during the 3 periods
Circles are observation, squares are the OAS

图4 回归到EASMI上的夏季SST异常(单位:℃)
左列为观测;右列为同化系统。上、中、下分别为EASMI与前冬Nino3.4指数关系较低(1964—1978年)、较高(1979—1993年)和较低(1994—2008年)的3段时期;阴影区为海温异常通过5%显著性;黑框区为东北印度洋区域(0°~20°N, 75°~110°E)

Fig.4 SST anomalies (units: ℃) in JJA regressed against EASMI
Left column is the observation, right column is the OAS; Top, middle and bottom are three periods that correspond to low (1964-1978),high (1979-1993) and low (1994-2008) correlation between EASMI and Nino3.4 in previous winter, respectively; Dotted shadings exceed the 5% significance level; Black box denotes the northeastern Indian Ocean (0°~20°N, 75°~110°E)

图5 回归到EASMI上的夏季降水(填色;单位:mm/d)和850 hPa风场异常(箭头;单位:m/s;小于0.5 m/s的风场未显示)
左列为观测;右列为同化系统。上、中、下分别为EASMI与前冬Nino3.4指数关系较低(1964—1978年)、较高(1979—1993年)、较低(1994—2008年)的3段时期;阴影区为降水异常通过5%显著性;黑框区为北印度洋和南亚季风区(0°~20°N,60°~110°E)

Fig.5 Anomalies of precipitation (shadings; units: mm/d) and 850 hPa wind in JJA regressed against EASMI (arrow; units: m/s; less than 0.5 m/s not drawn)
Left column is the observation, right column is the OAS; top, middle and bottom are three periods that correspond to low (1964-1978), high (1979-1993) and low (1994-2008) correlation between EASMI and Nino3.4 in previous winter, respectively; Dotted shadings denote precipitation anomalies exceeding the 5% significance level; Black box denotes the northern Indian Ocean and South Asian monsoon region (0°~20°N, 60°~110°E)

图6 回归到EASMI上的夏季500~200 hPa厚度异常(填色;单位:m)
左列为观测;右列为同化系统。上、中、下分别为EASMI与前冬Nino3.4指数关系较低(1964—1978年)、较高(1979-1993年)和较低(1994—2008年)的3段时期;阴影区通过5%显著性检验;赤道东印度洋—海洋大陆(5°S~5°N,90°~140°E)上空的厚度异常用来定义这一区域的Kelvin波;西北太平洋(10°~20°N,110°~170°E)和澳大利亚北部(25°~15°S,110°~170°E)上空厚度异常的平均值用来定义这一区域的Rossby波

Fig.6 Anomalies of 500~200 hPa thickness in JJA regressed against EASMI (shading; units: m)
Left column is the observation, right column is the OAS;Top, middle and bottom are three periods that correspond to low (1964-1978), high (1979-1993) and low (1994-2008) correlation between EASMI and Nino3.4 in previous winter, respectively; Dotted shadings exceed the 5% significance level; Thickness anomalies over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and maritime continent (5°S~5°N, 90°~140°E) are used to define Kelvin wave; Averaged anomalies over the western North Pacific (10°~20°N, 110°~170°E) and the north of Australia (25°~15°S, 110°~170°E) used to define Rossby wave

图7 3段时期观测(圆圈)和同化系统(正方形)中与东亚夏季风指数有关的关键变量的异常
(a)东北印度洋(0°~20°N,75°~110°E;见图4 黑框区)海表温度异常;(b)北印度洋(0°~20°N,60°~110°E;见图5 黑框区)降水异常;(c)赤道东印度洋—海洋大陆(5°S~5°N,90°~140°E;见图6 黑框区)上空的Kelvin波异常;(d)西北太平洋(10°~20°N,110°~170°E;见图6 黑框区)和澳大利亚北部(25°~15°S,110°~170°E;见图6 黑框区)上空Rossby波异常

Fig.7 Anomalies of key variables associated with EASMI in the observation (circles) and OAS (squares) during the 3 periods
(a) SST anomalies in the northeastern Indian Ocean (0°~20°N, 75°~110°E; black box in Fig. 4 ); (b) Precipitation anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean (0°~20°N, 60°~110°E; black box in Fig. 5 ); (c) Kevin wave anomalies over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and maritime continent (5°S~5°N, 90°~140°E; black box in Fig. 6 ); (d) Rossby wave anomalies over the western North Pacific (10°~20°N,110°~170°E; black box in Fig. 6 ) and the north of Australia (25°~15°S, 110°~170°E; black box in Fig. 6 )

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