地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 80 -91. doi: 1001-8166(2014)01-0080-12

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论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略
张强 1, 2( ), 韩兰英 3, 张立阳 4, 王劲松 1   
  1. 1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 甘肃兰州 730020
    2.甘肃省气象局, 甘肃兰州 730020
    3.西北区域气候中心, 甘肃兰州 730020
    4. 兰州大学大气科学学院, 甘肃兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2013-08-16 修回日期:2013-12-17 出版日期:2014-03-01
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害的变化规律、机理、影响和对策”（编号：2013CB430206）;国家自然科学基金重点项目“黄土高原陆面过程观测与试验研究”（编号：40830597）资助.

Analysis on the Character and Management Strategy of Drought Disaster and Risk under the Climatic Warming

Qiang Zhang 1, 2( ), Lanying Han 3, Liyang Zhang 4, Jingsong Wang 1   

  1. 1.Key (Open) Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/ Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meterological Administration /Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meterological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China
    2.Meteorology Bureau of Gansu, Lanzhou 730020, China
    3. Northwest Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020, China
    4. College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2013-08-16 Revised:2013-12-17 Online:2014-03-01 Published:2014-01-10
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干旱是全球影响最广泛的自然灾害, 给人类带来了巨大的危害, 近百年气候显著变暖使干旱灾害及其风险问题更加突出。目前, 对干旱和干旱灾害风险的内在规律理解并不全面, 对气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险的表现特征认识也比较模糊。在系统总结国内外已有干旱和干旱灾害风险研究成果的基础上, 归纳了干旱灾害传递过程的基本规律及干旱灾害的本质特征, 综合分析了干旱灾害风险关键要素的主要特点及其相互作用关系, 讨论了气候变暖对干旱和干旱灾害风险的影响特点, 探讨了干旱灾害风险管理的基本要求。在此基础上, 提出了干旱灾害防御的主要措施及干旱灾害风险管理的重点策略。

关键词: 干旱灾害, 风险评估与管理, 气候变暖, 干旱灾害传递过程, 干旱防御措施

The drought is a most severe natural disaster worldwide, which leads to great risk in human being. The drought disaster and risk have more prominent because of obvious climatic warming in the last hundred years. At present, the understanding of the internal laws of the occurrence of drought and drought risk is not comprehensive, and the recognition of the characteristics of the drought and drought risk under climatic warming is obscure. In this paper, we summarized systematically the domestic and overseas research progress of the drought and drought disaster risk, introduced the principle of the drought disaster transfer process and the essential features of drought disaster, analyzed synthetically the main characteristics and interactions among the key factors of the drought disaster risk, discussed the effect of climatic warming on drought and drought disaster risk, and probed into the basic requirement of drought disaster risk management. Above all, we provide the main protective measurements of the drought disaster and the main strategy of drought disaster risk management.

Key words: Drought disaster, Risk assessment and management, Climatic warming, The transport process of arid disaster, Protective measurements of the drought disaster

中图分类号: 

图1 干旱的传递过程及其相互作用
Fig.1 Drought transfer processes and interactions
图2 干旱灾害风险要素之间的关系及其受气候变暖的影响
Fig.2 The relation between the factors of the drought disaster risk and the effect of climate warming on them
图3 气候变暖背景下干旱灾害风险分析评估技术流程
Fig 3 The flow chart of drought disaster risk analyses and assessment under climate warming background
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