地球科学进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (1): 22 -32. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2010.01.0022

综述与评述 上一篇    下一篇

自然灾害灾情评估研究与实践进展
袁艺   
  1. 民政部国家减灾中心,北京100053
  • 收稿日期:2009-02-23 修回日期:2009-10-19 出版日期:2010-01-10
  • 通讯作者: 袁艺 E-mail:yuanyi@ndrcc.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技支撑计划项目“综合风险防范救助保障与保险体系示范”(编号:2006BAD20B04);国家自然科学基金项目“自然灾害救助应急预案的区域分异规律研究”(编号:40801215)

Advances in the Assessment of Natural Disaster Situation

YUAN Yi   

  1. National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Beijing100053, China
  • Received:2009-02-23 Revised:2009-10-19 Online:2010-01-10 Published:2010-01-10

自然灾害灾情评估是科学开展灾害管理工作的基础。灾情评估以单次灾害过程的灾前预评估、灾中应急评估、灾后综合评估以及区域灾情评估为主要内容,基于历史灾情统计资料的评估方法、基于承灾体易损性的评估方法、现场抽样调查统计方法、遥感图像或航片识别法、基层统计上报方法、经济学方法等是灾情评估的主要方法。灾情评估的目标从对灾情的估算和统计扩展到对灾情大小的分级,评估内容上逐步重视灾害的社会经济影响评估,评估方法上注重多种方法的综合应用,以及建立灾情评估系统是灾情评估研究与应用的主要发展方向。国内外研究和实践成果在减灾工作中的实际应用亟待加强,迫切需要形成包括对单次灾害过程的灾前预评估、灾中应急评估、灾后综合评估以及区域灾情综合评估在内的自然灾害灾情评估的内容体系、评估指标体系、评估标准体系和评估方法体系。

The disaster situation refers to the scale, intensity, frequency of the natural disasters as well as the losses and the influence on society and economy caused by natural disasters. The assessment of disaster situation is the foundation of disaster management. Classified according to time, the assessment of the disaster situation can be divided into pre-disaster forecasting assessment, mid-disaster emergency assessment, post-disaster integrated assessment as well as regional disaster situation assessment. Classified according to the objects, it includes the direct damage and loss, the indirect economic loss and the social and economic effect. In this field, the main methods and means include the method based on the historical disaster data, the vulnerability analysis methods based on the performance of hazard affected bodies, the statistics method on spot check, the method of identification of remote sensing and air-scapes, the statistics method from grass roots and economics methods. The paper summarizes the study emphases and developing tendency of the assessment of disaster situation. Objectives of the disaster assessment from the estimates and statistics on the damage have been extended to the size of the classification. Besides the general assessment on the population of dead or injured, the crop affected, the houses collapsed and the direct loss, the content of disaster assessment has been expanded to social-economic loss involving indirect loss, macro-economic impacts gradually. Assessment methods focus on the comprehensive application of the above approaches. With the increasing demands for mitigation and relief in disaster, there is an urgent need of establishing an integrated approach system by the comprehensive utilization of technology which referred to GIS, remote sensing and database, with which it does the processing, synthesis, analysis and assessment of data, and all of them involved with statistic, geographical information, remote sensing and other′s, and formed the system of contents, indicators, standards and methods, and then creating a comprehensive evaluation system of the disaster which would be a business of running.

中图分类号: 

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