地球科学进展 ›› 2008, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (7): 739 -747. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2008.07.0739

全球变化与人文因素的流域生态水文效应 上一篇    下一篇

全球变暖情景下黑河山区水循环要素变化研究
蓝永超 1,胡兴林 2,肖洪浪 1,林 纾 3   
  1. 1. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 黑河生态水文与流域集成管理研究实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000;2.甘肃省水文水资源局,甘肃 兰州 730000;3.兰州区域气候中心,甘肃 兰州 730030
  • 收稿日期:2008-05-07 修回日期:2008-06-10 出版日期:2008-07-10
  • 通讯作者: 蓝永超 E-mail:lyc@lzb.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金重点项目“黑河流域生态—水文过程研究集成”(编号:90702001);国家自然科学基金项目“中国西部地区秋季降水机制研究”(编号:40675066);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目“中国西北西部气候和水分过程的变化特征及其相互关系的研究”(编号:KZCX3-SW-229)资助.

A Study of Variations of Water Cycle Factors in the Mountainous Area of the Heihe′ Main River under Global Warming Scene

Lan Yongchao 1,Hu Xinglin 2,Xiao Honglang 1,Lin Shu 3   

  1. 1.Heihe Laboratory of Ecohydrology and Integrated Basin Management, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS, Lanzhou 730000,China; 2.Hydrology and Water Resources Administration of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000,China; 3.Lanzhou Regional Climatel Center, Lanzhou 730020,China
  • Received:2008-05-07 Revised:2008-06-10 Online:2008-07-10 Published:2008-07-10

利用有关水文气象台站的观测资料,对近50年来黑河上游山区流域降水、气温与径流深等水循环要素的变化进行了分析,结果表明:该区域的平均气温变化总体上呈上升的趋势,且其升温幅度高于全球过去50年的升温幅度;降水与径流的变化均呈增加的趋势,但增幅不是十分显著,且径流增长的增幅要大于降水量,这意味着径流的增长并不完全依赖降水的增加,气温上升导致的冰川和高山积雪及地下冻土层融水增加也是影响黑河上游山区流域径流变化的重要原因。根据降水和气温未来的变化趋势,预计在未来50年中, 除非遭遇到特别极端的气候组合,黑河山区径流仍将维持过去50年来缓慢增加的趋势,但增幅非常有限,最大变幅基本在目前多年均值的±5%左右。

The Heihe River is a bigger inland drainage running through the three provinces of Qinghai, Gansu and Inner Mongolia in the northwestern China as well as the biggest river in the Hexi inland region. The Qilian Mountains lying in the northeastern brim of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau is the formation region of the surface water resources in the Heihe river basin. Because of the existence of the hydrometric factors closely related with the temperature such as mountain glacier, snow cover and frozen earth etc., the runoff is also sensitive to the temperature besides the atmosphere precipitation supply. According to the fourth scientific evaluation report on climate change issued by IPCC in February, 2007, it is predicted that the global average temperature will be raised by 1.8~4.0℃. During the last century (1906-2005), the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74(0.56~0.92)℃,which is higher than 0.6(0.40~0.80)℃ which is the rising temperature extent in recent 100a(1901-2000 a)issued in the third evaluation report by IPCC in 2001. In the warmest twelve years since 1850, there are eleven months appearing in the year of 1995-2006 except 1996, and the rising temperature rate in the past 50a is almost twice of that in the past 100a.The forecasting result which has synthesized the results of various GCMs under various SRES shows that by the end of this century, the temperature of the global surface will have increased by 1.1~6.4℃ and the rising extent of the global sea level will be 0.18~6.4°m[1]. In the future 20a, the air temperature will increase at the speed of about 0.2℃/10a, even if all the greenhouse gas and aerosol are stabilized at the level of 2000, and the climate will still get warmer, and some of the changes will be more obvious than those of last century. According to the first evaluation report on the global climate changes and the countries influenced issued by National Climate center, China Meteorological Administration in January 2006, the rising temperature rate in China in the past 50a is quite obvious, among which the climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau locating on the high altitude zone is especially focused upon.It is forecasted that the temperature will be getting warmer and warmer in future and the annual mean temperature will increase 1.3~2.1℃ by 2020 and 1.5~2.8℃ will increase and 2.3~3.3℃,and the annual precipitation will increase 2%~3% by 2020 and about 5%~7% by 2050 in China. The change on water cycle and the redistribution of water resources on space and time must be caused beca use of the difference of heated condition and the change of atmosphere circumfluent. The drought in the middle latitude zone in the Northern Hemisphere and the lack of water resources in some regions will be caused by the persistent global temperature rise, and at the same time, the regional environment and the development of society and economy will be affected. So study of the changes of the water cycle factors such as air temperature, precipitation, runoff in the mountainous areas of the Heihe′ main river under the global warming is of all greatly important meaning for the continual utilization and development of water resources in the Heihe river basin and the whole Hexi Inland River Basin. Therefore, based on observational data ground temperature, precipitation and runoff of the resent 50a at the weather stations in the mountainous area of the Heihe′ main river basin, the variation characteristics and trends of the annual mean precipitation in the region are analyzed. The results show the response of the mean temperature in the region to global warming is quite obvious. Even the rising extent of temperature in the area is higher than that of the global warming. At the same time, the precipitation and runoff also present an increase trend and the increase extent of runoff is bigger than the precipitation, which means the increase of runoff is not absolutely rely on precipitation. According to the variation trend of temperature and precipitation in the area,it is forecasted that the runoff in the mountainous area of the Heihe'main river will presents a little increasing trend in the future 50a.The runoff in the area will unceasingly increase, the same as that in the past 50a, unless the extreme climate combination appears, and the increase extent will be less than 10% of the present mean value.

中图分类号: 

[1] IPCC. Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovemental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press2008in press.

[2] Ding YihuiRen GuoyuShi Guangyuet al. National assessment report of climate changeI:Climate change in China and its future trend [J]. Advances in Climate Change Research20062l:3-8.[丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等. 气候变化国家评估报告(I:中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,200621:3-8.]

[3] Lan YunchaoKang ErsiZhan Jishi. Changing trends on air temperature time sequences in the Qilian mountains area since 1950s [J]. Journal of Desert Resourch200121suppl.:51-57.[蓝永超,康尔泗,张济世.祁连山区近50年来的气温序列及变化趋势[J].中国沙漠,200121(增刊):51-57.]

[4] Ding YongjianYe BaishengLiu Shiyin. Impact of climate change on the alpine streamflow during the past 40a in the middle part of the Qilian mountainsnorthewestern China [J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology1999211:42-48.[丁永建,叶佰生,刘时银.40年来祁连山中部地区气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].冰川冻土,1999211:42-48.]

[5] Gao QianzhaoYang Xinyuan. The Features of interior rivers and feeding of glacial meltwater in the Hexi RegionGansu province [C]Memoirs of Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Cryopedology Chinese Academy of ScienceGlacier Variation and Utilizations in Qillan Mountains),No.5.Beijing: Sciences Press1992.[高前兆,杨新源. 甘肃河西内陆河径流特征与冰川补给[C]中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所集刊,第5.北京:科学出版社,1985.]

[6] Gao QianzhaoLi Fuxing. Study of Rational Development and Utilization of Water Resources in the Heihe River Basin [M]. Lanzhou: Gansu Sciences and Technology Press1990.[高前兆,李福兴. 黑河流域水资源合理开发利用[M].兰州:甘肃科学技术出版社,1990.]

[7] Wang KeliJiang HaoZhao Hongyan. Advection and convergence of water vapor transport over the northwest China [J]. Advances in Water Science2006172:164-170.[王可丽,江灏,赵红岩.中国西北地区水汽的平流输送和辐合输送[J].水科学进展,2006172:164-170.]

[8] Shi Yafeng. Influence of Climate Variation on Water Resources in the Northern and Northwestern China [M]. Jinan: Shandong Sciences and Technology Press1995.[施雅风.气候变化对西北华北水资源的影响[M].济南:山东科学技术出版社,1995.]

[9] Kang ErsiCheng GuodongDong Zhenchuan. Glacier-Snow Water Resources and Mountain Runoff in the Area of Northwest China [M]. Beijing: Sciences Press2002.[康尔泗,程国栋,董振川.中国西北干旱区冰雪水资源与出山径流[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.]

[10] Cheng GuodongKang ErsiLiu Chaohai. Glacier-snow water resources and mountain runoff in the area of northwest China [C]Wu Puteeds.Study on Water Resources Development Stratagem and Utilization Technology in the Northwestern China.Beijing: China Water Power Press2001.[程国栋,康尔泗,刘潮海.西北干旱区冰川水资源和出山径流[C]吴普特主编.中国西北地区水资源开发战略与利用技术.北京: 中国水利水电出版社,2001.]

[11] Lai Zuming. Variations of runoff supply and discharge with elevation in Qilian mountains [C]Memoirs of Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Cryopedology Chinese Academy of ScienceGlacier Variation and Utilizations in Qilian Mountains),No.5.Beijing: Sciences Press1985.[赖祖铭.祁连山区河流的补给及径流量随高度的变化[C]中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所集刊,第5. 北京: 科学出版社,1985.]

[12] Xie ZichuWu GuangheWang Lilun. Recent advance and retreat glaciers in Qilian mountains [C]Memoirs of Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Cryopedology Chinese Academy of ScienceGlacier Variation and Utilizations in Qilian Mountains),No.5.Beijing: Sciences Press1985.[谢自楚,伍光和,王立伦.祁连山冰川近期的进退变化[C]中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所集刊,第5.北京:科学出版社,1985.]

[13] Ding LiangfuKang Xingcheng.The relationship between climate variation and glacier change during the last 20a in Qilian Mountains [C]Memoirs of Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Cryopedology Chinese Academy of ScienceGlacier Variation and Utilizations in Qilian Mountains),No.5.Beijing: Sciences Press1985.[丁良福,康兴成.祁连山区20年来气候变化及其与冰川变化的关系[C]中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所集刊,第5.北京:科学出版社,1985.]

[14] Pu JianchenYao TandongDuan Keqinet al. Mass balance of the Qiyi glacier in the Qilian mountains: A new observation [J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology2005272:199-204.[蒲建辰,姚檀栋,段克勤,等.祁连山七一冰川物质平衡的最新观测结果[J].冰川冻土,2005272:199-204.]

[15] Yang Zhenniang. Glacier water Resources and its effect in stream runoff in Qilian mountains [C]Memoirs of Lanzhou institute of Glaciology and Cryopedology Chinese Academy of ScienceGlacier Variation and Utilizations in Qilian Mountains),No.7.Beijing: Science Press1992.[杨针娘.祁连山冰川的近期变化及趋势分析[C]中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所集刊第7.北京:科学出版社,1992.]

[16] Liu ChaohaiSong GuopingJin Mingxie.Recent change and trend prediction of glaciers in Qilian mountains [C]Memoirs of Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Cryopedology Chinese Academy of ScienceGlacier Variation and Utilizations in Qilian Mountains),No.7.Beijing: Sciences Press1992. [刘潮海,宋国平,金明燮.祁连山冰川的近期变化及趋势预测[C]中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所集刊第7. 北京: 科学出版社,1992.]

[17] Shi YafengZhang Xiangsong. Impacts of climate change to surface water resources and its future trend in the northwestern China [J]. Science in ChinaSeries B),1995259:968-977.[施雅风,张祥松.气候变化对西北干旱区地表水资源的影响和未来趋势[J].中国科学:B辑,1995259:968-977.]

[18] Lan YongchaoKang Ersi. Study on the trend forecast and variation characteristics of the mountainous runoff in the Heihe river basin [J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology1999211:154-160.[蓝永超,康尔泗.黑河干流出山地表径流变化特征与趋势预测[J].冰川冻土,1999211:154-160.]

[19] Li DongliangFeng JianyingChen Leiet al. Study on interdecadal change of Heihe runoff and Qilian mountain’s climate [J]. Plateau Meteorolog2003222: 104-110.[李栋梁,冯建英,陈雷,等.黑河流量和祁连山气候的年代际变化[J].高原气象,2003222:104-110.]

[20] Wang MeihuaXie QiangWang Hongya. Impact of the climate change on runoff depth of the Huaihe River Basin [J]. Geographical Research2003221:79-87.[汪美华,谢强,王红亚.未来气候变化对淮河流域径流深的影响[J].地理研究,2003221:79-87.]

[21] Fu GuobinLiu Changming. Compute and analysis on influence of global warming to regional water resources [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica1991463:277-288.[傅国斌,刘昌明.全球变暖对区域水资源影响的计算分析[J].地理学报,1991463:277-288.]

[1] 黄婉彬,鄢春华,张晓楠,邱国玉. 城市化对地下水水量、水质与水热变化的影响及其对策分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(5): 497-512.
[2] 李修仓,姜彤,吴萍. 水分再循环计算模型的研究进展及其展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(10): 1029-1040.
[3] 李浩杰,李弘毅,王建,郝晓华. 河冰遥感监测研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(10): 1041-1051.
[4] 谢正辉,陈思,秦佩华,贾炳浩,谢瑾博. 人类用水活动的气候反馈及其对陆地水循环的影响研究——进展与挑战[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(8): 801-813.
[5] 汤秋鸿,刘星才,李哲,运晓博,张学君,于强,李俊,张永勇,崔惠娟,孙思奥,张弛,唐寅,冷国勇. 陆地水循环过程的综合集成与模拟[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(2): 115-123.
[6] 马忠, 苏守娟, 龙爱华, 张晓霞. 塔里木河流域社会经济系统水循环分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(8): 833-841.
[7] 丁永建, 张世强. 西北内陆河山区流域内循环过程与机理研究: 现状与挑战[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(7): 719-728.
[8] 李育, 刘媛. 干旱区内流河流域长时间尺度水循环重建与模拟——以石羊河流域为例[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(7): 731-743.
[9] 汤秋鸿, 黄忠伟, 刘星才, 韩松俊, 冷国勇, 张学君, 穆梦斐. 人类用水活动对大尺度陆地水循环的影响[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(10): 1091-1099.
[10] 王连喜, 吴建生, 李琪, 顾嘉熠, 薛红喜. AquaCrop作物模型应用研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(10): 1100-1106.
[11] 邓铭江, 石泉. 内陆干旱区水资源管理调控模式[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(9): 1046-1054.
[12] 李霞, 高艳红, 王婉昭, 蓝永超, 许建伟, 李凯. 黄河源区气候变化与GLDAS数据适用性评估[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(4): 531-540.
[13] 彭 雯, 高艳红, 王婉昭. 土壤温湿状况对黄河源区水循环过程的影响[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(11): 1252-1261.
[14] 马耀明,姚檀栋,胡泽勇,王介民. 青藏高原能量与水循环国际合作研究的进展与展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(11): 1280-1284.
[15] 段争虎. 土壤水研究在流域生态—水文过程中的作用、现状与方向[J]. 地球科学进展, 2008, 23(7): 682-684.
阅读次数
全文


摘要