地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 546 -559. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.05.0546

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中国不同等级高温热浪的时空分布特征及趋势
贾佳 1, 2( ), 胡泽勇 1, 3, *( )   
  1. 1.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3.中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-12 修回日期:2017-03-20 出版日期:2017-05-20
  • 通讯作者: 胡泽勇 E-mail:cicelia_1219@sina.cn;zyhu@lab.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目“青藏高原地气相互作用过程影响周边地区能量和水分循环的机制研究”(编号: 91337212);国家自然科学基金培育项目“藏北高原地面热源长期变化及其对高原季风系统的热力影响研究”(编号: 91537101)资助

Spatial and Temporal Features and Trend of Different Level Heat Waves Over China

Jia Jia 1, 2( ), Zeyong Hu 1, 3, *( )   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3.CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2016-12-12 Revised:2017-03-20 Online:2017-05-20 Published:2017-05-20
  • Contact: Zeyong Hu E-mail:cicelia_1219@sina.cn;zyhu@lab.ac.cn
  • About author:

    First author:Jia Jia(1990-), female, Zhengzhou City, He’nan Province, Master student. Research areas include climate change.E-mail:cicelia_1219@sina.cn

  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China “The air-land interaction process in the Tibetan Plateau and its effect on the energy and water cycle over its surrounding regions”(No.91337212) and “Study on long term changes of surface heat source in northern Tibetan Plateau and its thermal effect on the plateau monsoon system”(No.91537101)
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针对近年来中国区域高温热浪日数日趋增加的问题,利用1961—2013年中国区域719个基准站逐日气温数据,并根据持续时间将高温热浪分为弱、中强、强3种等级,对比分析3种不同等级高温热浪发生频次、起始及结束时间的变化特征及区域差异。结果表明:在分析时段,中国区域整体平均高温日数呈现显著的先减后增的变化趋势,转折点为1993年。高温日数变化趋势存在显著区域差异,其中西南、华南地区的高温热浪增速最快,趋势系数均通过95%显著性检验;3种等级高温热浪所发生的区域不同,其中,弱高温热浪主要发生在中国西北、华中地区,强高温热浪主要分布在华南、西南地区,且3种等级的高温热浪发生频次均呈上升趋势。从发生的起始时间看,弱高温热浪开始日期最早,平均开始于每年的7月3日,而中强和强高温热浪开始时间相近,分别为7月13日和7月14日;从区域上来看,3种等级高温热浪均最早在西南爆发,而华中、华东、华南地区爆发最晚。除西南地区外,3种等级高温热浪的起始时间呈提前趋势,而7个区域结束日期的变化趋势存在南北差异:30°N以南地区弱、中强高温热浪结束日期均呈推后趋势,强高温热浪结束日期在30°~35°N地区显著推后,而在北方呈提前趋势。

关键词: 高温热浪, 发生频次, 始末日期, 线性趋势, 区域对比

Heat wave has become a severe problem over China in recent year. Based on daily air temperature data from 719 meteorological stations in China in the period of 1961-2012, the heat wave events were classified into three levels by duration: weak HW, medium heat wave and strong heat wave. This paper describes the spatial and temporal characteristics among three levels of heat wave over China during the period 1961-2013. The results showed that the number of hot days displayed a weakening trend from the 1960s to the early 1990s, followed by a strengthening trend from the late 1990s up to now. Long-term linear trends in hot days had significant regional differences, for instance, the number of hot days in southwest and southern China growing sharply than other regions; three levels heat wave occurred in different regions that weak heat wave usually occurred in the northwest and middle part of China while strong heat wave mainly happened in the southern part of China. When it came to the first day of heat wave, weak heat wave occurred earliest in China, and it happened around July 3rd while medium heat wave and strong heat wave always started on July 13th and July 14th, respectively. In general, the earliest heat wave was always found in southwest China while the last ones usually occurred in southern part and southwest China. Increasing trend of three levels heat wave were found in the entire country, except for southwest China. The trend of the last day of heat waves showed significant difference between northern and southern part of China. The last day of weak and medium heat wave occurred later in the south China, while strong heat wave happened earlier in north China.

Key words: Heat wave, Frequency, Start and end date, Linear trend, Regional comparison.

中图分类号: 

图1 全国气温观测站点(719个)分布及区域划分
Fig.1 Locations of the selected 719 meteorological stations and sub-regional division
图2 高温日数及高温日数距平值的变化趋势
(a)1961—2013年9年滑动平均的高温热浪日数(长虚线)及变化趋势(短虚线),实线为原始序列;(b)1961—2013年9年滑动平均的高温日数距平值
Fig.2 Trend of hot days and anomaly hot days
(a) 9-year moving averaged time series (long dashed line) and trends (short dashed line)of hot days in china from 1961 to 2013,solid lines are original time series; (b) 9-year moving averaged time series of anomaly hot days from 1961 to 2013
图3 1961—2013年各区域9年滑动平均的高温日数(长虚线)及线性变化趋势(短虚线),实线为原始序列
(a)西北;(b) 东北;(c) 华北;(d) 华中;(e) 华东;(f) 西南;(g) 华南
Fig.3 9-year moving averaged time series (long dashed line) and linear trends (short dashed line) of hot days in typical regions from 1961 to 2013, solid lines are original time series
(a)Northwest China;(b)Northeast China;(c) Central part of northern China;(d) Middle part of China; (e) East China; (f)Southwest China; (g) South China
表1 中国7个区域高温日数变化趋势系数及突变时间点
Table 1 Linear trend and the abrupt change points of hot days
区域 西北 东北 华北 华中 华东 西南 华南
趋势系数 0.13* 0.09 0.13 0.06 0.11 0.22* 0.21*
突变年份 1996 1996 2004 2001
图4 1961—2013年中国区域弱、中强、强3种等级高温热浪年平均发生频次的变化
(a)3种等级高温热浪发生频次变化;(b)3种等级高温热浪每10年发生频次及高温总日数的统计
Fig.4 Frequency of weak,medium, strong heat wave in China area from 1961 to 2013
(a) Frequency of three levels of heat wave;(b) Decade trends of frequency and heat wave days of three levels heat wave
图5 1961—2013年中国区域3种等级高温热浪平均发生频次及其变化趋势
(a),(c),(e)分别为弱、中强、强高温热浪平均发生频次;(b),(d),(f)分别为弱、中强、强高温热浪发生频次的变化趋势
Fig.5 Frequency and trend of three levels heat wave in china from 1961 to 2013
(a),(c),(e)Represent the frequency of weak medium strong heat wave, respectively; (b),(d),(f) Represent the trend of weak medium strong heat wave frequency, respectively
表2 7个区域3种强度高温热浪频次及其占高温热浪总次数比例
Table 2 Heat wave frequency and their proportion of three levels heat wave in seven sub-region of China
西北 东北 华北 华中 华东 西南 华南
强高温热浪频次 0.30 0.30 0.27 0.45 0.58 0.32 0.40
中强高温热浪频次 0.54 0.48 0.43 0.55 0.48 0.45 0.54
弱高温热浪频次 1.91 1.50 1.51 1.51 1.30 1.49 1.50
强高温热浪频次趋势/a 0.0017 0.0035 0.0078** 0.002 0.0037 0.0028 0.0055
中强高温热浪频次趋势/a 0.005 0.004 0.0076* 0.0001 0.005 0.0057* 0.0085**
弱高温热浪频次趋势/a 0.0136 0.0055 0.0025 0.0058 0.0053 0.0192** 0.0192**
强高温热浪占总数比/% 10.76 12.77 12.20 18.08 24.54 14.05 16.20
中强高温热浪占总数比/% 20.00 21.18 19.60 22.00 20.36 20.00 22.11
弱高温热浪占总数比/% 69.59 66.06 68.19 59.92 55.09 65.96 61.68
图6 1961—2013年3种等级高温热浪开始日期和结束日期的年代际变化趋势
(a)开始日期;(b)结束日期
Fig.6 Trend of the first day and the last day of three levels heat wave from 1961 to 2013
(a)First day; (b)Last day
表3 7个区域3种等级高温热浪开始、结束日期
Table 3 The first day and last day of three levels heat wave in seven region
西北 东北 华北 华中 华东 西南 华南
强高温开始日期 7月20日 7月06日 7月04日 7月18日 7月18日 5月26日 7月22日
中强高温开始日期 7月13日 7月09日 6月30日 7月18日 7月20日 5月27日 7月23日
弱高温开始日期 7月05日 6月28日 6月26日 7月11日 7月14日 5月21日 7月16日
强高温结束日期 7月30日 7月19日 7月18日 8月02日 8月04日 6月09日 8月05日
中强高温结束日期 7月26日 7月20日 7月13日 7月30日 7月31日 6月12日 8日10日
弱高温结束日期 8月03日 7月22日 7月20日 8月03日 7月14日 6月25日 8月05日
图7 1961—2013年3种等级高温热浪平均开始、结束日期空间分布
(a),(c),(e)分别为弱、中强、强高温热浪平均开始日期;(b),(d),(f)分别为弱、中强、强高温热浪结束平均日期
Fig.7 Distribution of the average of first day and last day of three level heat wave from 1961 to 2013
(a),(c),(e) Represent the first day of weak, medium, strong heat wave, respective; (b),(d),(f) Represent the last day of weak, medium, strong heat wave, respective
图8 1961—2013年3种等级高温热浪开始、结束日期变化趋势
(a),(c),(e)分别为弱、中强、强高温热浪开始日期趋势;(b),(d),(f)分别为弱、中强、强高温热浪结束日期趋势
Fig.8 Trend of the first day and last day of three level heat wave from 1961 to 2013
(a),(c),(e) Represent the first day of weak, medium, strong heat wave, respective; (b),(d),(f) Represent the last day of weak, medium, strong heat wave, respective
表4 7个区域3种等级高温热浪开始、结束日期趋势系数
Table 4 The trend of first day and last day of three levels heat wave in seven region
趋势/(d/10a) 西北 东北 华北 华中 华东 西南 华南
弱高温开始日期 -2.4 -0.1 2.9 -0.5 -2.4 -0.8 -1.4
中强高温开始日期 -1.4 -2.4 -0.1 -2.8 -3 -1.2 -1.7
强高温开始日期 -3.4 -2.1 -10.3 -3.8 0.2 14.8 5.5
弱高温结束日期 1.9 1.4 1.3 -0.2 -0.7 5.8 3.2
中强高温结束日期 -0.7 0.2 1.7 -3 -2.9 5 1.4
强高温结束日期 -5.6 0.2 5 -1.6 -0.8 16 7.7
图9 1961—2013年各区域9年滑动平均的高温热浪持续时间(长虚线),实线为原始序列
(a)西北;(b) 东北;(c) 华北;(d) 华中;(e) 华东;(f) 西南;(g) 华南
Fig.9 9-year moving averaged time series (long dashed line) of heat wave days in typical regions,solid lines are original time series from 1961 to 2013
(a)Northwest China;(b)Northeast China;(c) Central part of northern China;(d) Middle part of China;(e) East China; (f)Southwest China; (g) South China
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