地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 632 -639. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.05.0632

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民勤县经济发展与生态环境的定量关系研究
张惠 1( ), 张志强 3   
  1. 1. 兰州文理学院,甘肃 兰州 730000
    2. 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
    3.中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 出版日期:2014-05-23
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“西北内陆河流域生态补偿机制研究——以石羊河流域为例”(编号：41171116)资助

Studies on the Quantitative Relation Between Economic Development and Ecological Environment of Minqin County

Hui Zhang 1( ), 2, Zhiqiang Zhang 3   

  1. 1. Lanzhou University of Arts and Science, Lanzhou 730000,China
    2 Geography and Environment College of Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070,China.
    3.Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment, Lanzhou 730000,China
  • Online:2014-05-23 Published:2014-05-10
全文 ( 1 ) 下载PDF ( 1064 )

环境压力和经济增长之间的关系问题是一个长期争论的话题。环境保护与经济发展是对立而又统一的2个方面,环境为人类的生存和发展提供了物质基础,而人类活动和经济发展又给生态和环境带来了污染与破坏。对于经济发展相对缓慢、生态环境较为脆弱、环境压力与经济增长之间矛盾更为突出的石羊河流域,此问题更加严峻。选择生态足迹作为表征环境压力的指标,计算了1978—2012年生态足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字情况,利用STIRPAT模型拟合人均生态足迹和经济发展之间的关系,用岭回归和偏最小二乘回归(PLS)分别计算经济发展与生态环境之间的耦合协调关系。结果表明：①1978—2012年民勤县生态足迹与人均生态足迹均呈上升趋势,生态赤字逐渐严重,35年间增加了719.62%；②影响生态环境变化的因素中人均GDP的变化对其影响较大,城镇化率次之,人口数和放牧量增加影响较小,第一产业产值比重的增加对生态环境恶化具有减缓作用；③耦合度在0.2759~0.4987之间,协调度在0.1263~0.3090之间,经济增长为粗放型,对生态环境的变化具有负作用。

关键词: 环境压力, STIRPAT模型, 耦合协调, 内陆河流域

Relationship between environmental pressure and economic growth is a long debated topic. Environmental protection and economic development are two aspects of the unity of opposites. Environment offers material basis for survival and development of human, but human activities and economic development has brought pollution and damage to the ecology and environment. This problem is more severe in Shiyang River Basin which has slow economy relatively, eco-environment is instable, and contradictions are more prominent between environmental pressures and economic growth. This paper choosed the ecological footprint as indicators of environmental pressure, and calculated the Ecological Footprint (EF), Ecological Capacity (EC) and Ecological Deficit (ED) from 1978 to 2012 of Minqin County. Then, we used STIRPAT model to simulate the impact of per capita ecological footprint on economic development. And we use ridge regression and PLS regression to find out the coupling and coordinative characteristics between economic growth and environment. The results show that: ①Ecological footprint and per capita ecological footprint of Minqin County increased from 1978 to 2012, and ecological deficit becomes serious gradually that it has increased 719.62% in the past 31 years; ② The changes of per capita GDP and per capita GDP squared have influence on environment, and followed by urbanization level. The changes of population and grassland utilization intensity have little impact on environment. The increase of proportion of primary industry can mitigate environment change; ③ The degree range of coupling and coordinative is 0.2759~0.4987 and 0.1263~0.3090. The economic development is extensive growth. And it has a negative effect on environment change.

Key words: Environment stress, STIRPAT model, Coupling and coordinate, Inland river basin.

中图分类号: 

图1 人均生态足迹、生态承载力及生态赤字变化趋势
Fig.1 The per capita ecological footprint (EF), ecological carrying capacity (EC) and ecological deficit (ED)
图2 生态足迹强度变化趋势
Fig.2 The trend of ecological footprint intensity change
表1 经济发展对环境影响作用的岭回归结果
Table 1 The parametric models of the impact of human factors on the environment (ridge regression)
岭回归 模型一 模型二 模型三
非标准化系数 标准化系数 T检验值 非标准化系数 标准化系数 T检验值 非标准化系数 标准化系数 T检验值
常数项 1.3439 - 4.6535*** 0.9844 - 3.6704** 1.6088 - 4.702***
人均GDP 0.8951 0.392 6.6988*** 0.4103 0.1797 6.143***
人均GDP平方 0.6811 0.214 5.1769***
人口/人 0 0.0592 1.1407* 0 0.1311 2.832** 0 0.0007 0.0117*
城镇化率 0.0275 0.3853 6.6119***
第一产业比重 -0.6652 -0.2494 -5.095*** -0.5882 -0.2206 -4.5496*** -0.7802 -0.2926 -5.2783***
羊单位/只 0 0.2917 5.1149*** 0 0.2781 4.9375*** 0 0.2956 4.7037***
R2 0.9694 0.9723 0.9602
F统计量 205.6052 175.6337 156.6922
样本量 35 35 35
表2 经济发展对环境影响作用的PLS回归结果
Table 2 The parametric models of the impact of human factors on the environment (PLS regression)
PLS回归 模型一 模型二 模型三
非标准化系数 非标准化系数 非标准化系数
常数项 1.824 0.805 2.589
人均GDP 1.061 -0.96
人均GDP平方 1.76
人口/人 0 0 0
城镇化率 0.046
第一产业比重 -0.8 -0.894 -0.984
羊单位/只 0 0 0
R2 0.971 0.974 0.965
样本量 35 35 35
图3. 模型一中2种回归结果的残差逆对数
Fig.3. The antilog of residuals for model 1 in 2 regression
表3 经济发展—生态环境耦合协调系统指标体系
Table 3 Index system of coupling and coordination system of economic growth and environment
子系统 评价指标 权重 子系统 评价指标 权重
经济发展子系统 粮食作物/kg 0.061909 生态环境子系统 人均GDP/万元 0.072987
油料/kg 0.066964
葵花籽/kg 0.084117 人口/人 0.050659
大茴香/kg 0.058068
蔬菜/kg 0.066174 城镇化率/% 0.057764
瓜类/kg 0.085945
水果产量/kg 0.069144 羊单位/只 0.064602
猪/kg 0.066174
羊/kg 0.057621 第一产业比值/% 0.046547
羊毛/kg 0.091325
表4 经济发展与生态环境耦合度与耦合协调度值
Table 4 Coupling and coupling coordination degrees between economic growth and environment
年份 经济发展综合序参量U1 生态环境综合序参量U2 耦合度C 协调度D 耦合强度与协调强度 耦合阶段
1978 0.14929 0.088118 0.483117 0.235397 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1979 0.150151 0.088954 0.483346 0.236349 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1980 0.135252 0.091474 0.490591 0.233598 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1981 0.144252 0.093381 0.488409 0.238088 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1982 0.149546 0.100155 0.490121 0.244914 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1983 0.135076 0.100631 0.494632 0.240142 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1984 0.115374 0.099775 0.498684 0.23131 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1985 0.079964 0.102659 0.496124 0.212016 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1986 0.064417 0.102348 0.486894 0.198832 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1987 0.051931 0.105719 0.469998 0.186614 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1988 0.059125 0.110329 0.476627 0.196202 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1989 0.053089 0.110856 0.467933 0.189466 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1990 0.046961 0.11599 0.452921 0.182831 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1991 0.055352 0.128669 0.458603 0.19673 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1992 0.045082 0.135365 0.432919 0.1839 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1993 0.052596 0.135304 0.448958 0.194612 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1994 0.04103 0.140632 0.418146 0.178221 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1995 0.038269 0.143266 0.407884 0.173787 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1996 0.041289 0.147834 0.413104 0.179652 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1997 0.057963 0.159782 0.441967 0.206236 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1998 0.02975 0.18294 0.346855 0.159964 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
1999 0.024318 0.180465 0.323494 0.14639 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
2000 0.026524 0.179984 0.334579 0.152043 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
2001 0.020596 0.187065 0.298904 0.13621 低强度低协调 低水平耦合
2002 0.017392 0.192127 0.275897 0.126287 低强度低协调 低水平耦合
2003 0.036982 0.215571 0.35354 0.17767 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
2004 0.023956 0.239192 0.287661 0.147564 低强度低协调 低水平耦合
2005 0.062936 0.249492 0.401077 0.224183 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
2006 0.048558 0.25026 0.368909 0.201661 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
2007 0.063236 0.254713 0.399162 0.225075 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
2008 0.148941 0.266118 0.479661 0.309022 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
2009 0.117243 0.266079 0.460771 0.285277 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
2010 0.117243 0.14248 0.497634 0.253609 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
2011 0.117243 0.211835 0.478899 0.274722 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
2012 0.117243 0.217928 0.476907 0.2761 中强度低协调 颉颃阶段
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