南海夏季风爆发的研究进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.10.1126

南海夏季风的爆发预示着中国东部地区汛期降水的全面开始,是夏季短期气候预测中的关键因子。南海夏季风爆发的研究对改进我国夏季的短期气候预测水平具有重要意义。系统回顾了近几十年来关于南海夏季风在爆发特征、年际变化、外强迫以及内动力过程对爆发的影响机理等方面的国内外研究进展,特别总结了近年来关于大气季节内振荡对南海夏季风爆发影响的研究成果以及关于南海夏季风爆发的预测问题的研究现状,最后提出南海夏季风爆发在全球变化下的响应和可预报性等需要进一步关注的问题。

关键词: 南海夏季风, 年际变化, 季节内振荡, 可预报性

The onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM) indicating the arrival of the rainy season of Eastern China is a key factor for the short-term climate prediction. The advances in the research about the characteristics, interannual variation of SCSSM onset, and the influence of external forces and internal processes on the SCSSM onset are reviewed in this paper, and the impacts of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) on the SCSSM onset are also summarized. Some issues, such as the monsoon wave interaction, SCSSM change under global warming, the predictability of the SCSSM onset, etc., are introduced for further study in future.

Key words: South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM), Onset, Interannual variation, Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO).

中图分类号:

P425.4+2

Fig.1 Members of East Asian Sumer monsoon system ^{[

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图2 1979-2011年南海夏季风爆发日期 ^{[

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Fig.2 The SCSSM onset dates of 1979-2011 ^{[

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图3 南海夏季风爆发早年前期冬季(a)和前期春季(b)以及爆发晚年前期冬季(c)和前期春季(d)的海温异常分布

Fig.2 SSTA distribution of the preceding winter(a)/(c) and spring (b)/(d) during early/late SCSSM onset years

图4 1979—2011年平均的南海夏季风爆发期间(3月1日至8月31日)U ₈₅₀变化功率谱分析

Fig4 Spectrum analysis of U ₈₅₀ in the SCSSM onset season (Mar1 to Aug31),based on the years of 1979-2011

图5 季风爆发周期内30~60天滤波后OLR (单位：W/m ²)ISO位相演变合成图蓝色阴影表示30~60天OLR变化的标准差(蓝色,红色和绿色圆圈分别表示爆发早年,爆发晚年和爆发正常年)^{[

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Fig.5 Composite of the 30~60-day filtered OLR (Unit:W/m ²) of the onset-ISOs The blue, red and green thin circles denote the monsoon onset phases and the thick circles denote the averaged onset phases for the early-onset years, the late-onset years and the normal-onset years respectively. The shadings indicate the standard deviations of the 30-60-day filtered OLR ^{[

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]}

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A Review of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset