地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2024, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 1112 -1122. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2024.083

综述与评述 上一篇    下一篇

航空与气候变暖研究进展
李耀辉 1( ), 何思奇 1 , 2( ), 徐影 2 , 3   
  1. 1.中国民用航空飞行学院 航空气象学院，四川 广汉 618307
    2.中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081
    3.中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室，北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2024-09-21 修回日期:2024-10-21 出版日期:2024-11-10
  • 通讯作者: 何思奇 E-mail:li-yaohui@163.com;hesq_29@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局航空气象重点开放实验室2023年开放研究课题(HKQXT-2024001);中国气象局重点创新团队“气候变化检测与应对”项目(CMA2022ZD03)

Progress of Research on Aviation and Climate Warming

Yaohui LI 1( ), Siqi HE 1 , 2( ), Ying XU 2 , 3   

  1. 1.College of Aviation Meteorology, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan Sichuan 618307, China
    2.National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    3.China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2024-09-21 Revised:2024-10-21 Online:2024-11-10 Published:2024-12-19
  • Contact: Siqi HE E-mail:li-yaohui@163.com;hesq_29@163.com
  • About author:LI Yaohui, research areas include research on weather, climate, climate change and aviation meteorology. E-mail: li-yaohui@163.com
  • Supported by:
    China Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Aviation Meteorology 2023 Open Research Topic(HKQXT-2024001);The “Climate Change Detection and Response” Project of the Key Innovation Team of China Meteorological Administration(CMA2022ZD03)
全文 ( 21 ) 下载PDF ( 632 )

航空业排放和气候变暖是国际社会共同关注的热点问题。航空业通过温室气体排放和高空颗粒物的排放加剧了气候变暖，而气候变暖导致的飞行条件的变化和极端天气也反过来影响了航空业的运营和安全，二者相互作用，形成了复杂的影响循环，对这一领域的研究不仅关乎气候变暖与航空业之间的协调与适应，还具有重要的科学意义。通过大量文献调研探讨了航空业与气候变暖之间相互关系的研究进展和动态，主要包括航空业产生的CO2和非CO2排放物对全球气候变暖的贡献以及气候变暖对航空业造成影响（如湍流变化、飞行时间变化、飞机性能下降和极端事件频率增加等）的现象和机制，并对未来的研究进行了展望。通过对这种相互关系的深入理解，有助于推动航空业的可持续发展，并为应对全球气候挑战提供科学依据。

关键词: 气候变暖, 航空业, 航空排放物, 晴空湍流, 航班旅行时间

Concerns about aviation emissions and climate change are shared internationally. The aviation industry plays a role in climate warming through its greenhouse gas and high-altitude particulate emissions. Conversely, climate warming alters flight conditions and increases extreme weather, impacts aviation operations and safety. The interaction creates a complex cycle of impacts, and research in this area is not only crucial for coordinating and adapting to climate changes in the aviation industry, but also holds scientific significance. An extensive literature review explores the relationship between aviation and climate warming, examining aviation’s CO2 and non-CO2 contributions to global warming and the phenomena and mechanisms by which climate warming in turn affects aviation (including changes in turbulence, flight time, aircraft performance degradation, and increased frequency of extreme events). The review also presents future research prospects. A deeper understanding of this interrelationship will help promote sustainable development of aviation and provide a scientific basis for addressing global climate challenges.

Key words: Climate warming, Aviation, Aviation emissions, Clear air turbulence, Flight travel time

中图分类号: 

图1 1940—2018年商业航空不同类型排放的气候强迫最佳评估
有效辐射强迫（ERF）考虑了传统辐射强迫（RF）评估中未考虑的气候系统中的短期反馈，括号外为最佳估计值，括号内为置信区间（据参考文献［ 10 ］修改）
Fig. 1 Best assessment of climate forcing for different types of emissions from commercial aviation between 1940 and 2018
The ERF takes into account short-term feedbacks in the climate system that are not accounted for in traditional Radiative Forcing （RF） assessments， best estimates outside parentheses， confidence intervals in parentheses （modified after reference ［ 10 ］）
图2 航空部分的辐射强迫
尾迹云和CO 2估计值代表2011年的排放水平（据参考文献［ 39 ］修改）
Fig. 2 Radiative forcing of the aviation component
Contrail and CO 2 estimates represent 2011 emission levels （modified after reference ［ 39 ］）
① https：//www.reading.ac.uk/news/2024/Expert-Comment/Turbulence-is-apparent-cause-of-flight-death
② https：//www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/08/turbulence-climate-change/
③ https：//www.canada.ca/en/transportation-safety-board/news/2017/02/tsb_reminds_aircraftpassengerstobuckleupafter21peopleinjuredduri.html
④ https：//graphics.thomsonreuters.com/testfiles/2024/nZfKwwIgUlKA/
图3 1979—2017年北大西洋250 hPa年平均风特征的时间序列（据参考文献［ 55 ］修改）
（a）纬向风的垂直切变；（b）纬向风速
Fig. 3 Time series of 250 hPa annual mean wind characteristics in the North Atlantic for the period 1979-2017 （modified after reference ［ 55 ］）
（a） Vertical shear of latitudinal winds； （b） Latitudinal wind speed
图4 纽约肯尼迪机场和伦敦希思罗机场之间的行程时间直方图
直方图显示了200 hPa高度上每日（a）东行和（b）西行最短航线持续时间的概率分布。用于计算概率的区间宽度为1分钟，路径使用GFDL CM2.1气候模型的工业化前控制模拟和双倍CO?浓度模拟，计算了连续20个冬季（从12月1日到2月28日）的结果。黑色实线是拟合正态分布的；黑色虚线表示静止空气中大圆路线的持续时间（据参考文献［ 21 ］修改）
Fig. 4 Histogram of journey times between New York’s JFK and London’s Heathrow airports
Histograms showing the probability distribution of daily （a） eastbound and （b） westbound shortest route durations at 200 hPa altitude. The width of the interval used to calculate the probabilities is 1 min. The paths are calculated for 20 consecutive winters （from 1 December to 28 February） using the pre-industrial control simulation of the GFDL CM2.1 climate model and a double CO? concentration simulation. The solid black line is fitted to a normal distribution； the dashed black line indicates the duration of the great circle route in still air （modified after reference ［ 21 ］）
图5 5种不同气候模型中西大西洋和东大西洋的平均急流纬度
对于每对点，当前气候的平均值（符号）和标准偏差（实线）在左侧，未来（2073—2099年）温室气体高排放情景下气候的平均值及其标准偏差在右侧。为了进行比较，标出了1979—2005年ERA Interim再分析数据西部（点线）和东部大西洋（虚线）的平均急流纬度（据参考文献［ 20 ］修改）
Fig. 5 Mean latitude of rapids in the western and eastern Atlantic for five different climate models
For each pair of points， the mean （symbols） and standard deviation （solid line） of the current climate are on the left， and the mean of the climate and its standard deviation for the future （2073-2099） high GHG emission scenario are on the right. For comparison， the mean latitude of rapids in the western （dotted line） and eastern Atlantic （dashed line） of the ERA Interim reanalysis data for the period 1979-2005 is indicated （modified after reference ［ 20 ］）
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